The UK Clean Power Plan

In 2015, the UK led the world by committing to a coal phase-out, becoming the first nation to do so. Scores of governments have followed and transitioning away from coal is recognised globally as a critical first step towards tackling climate change. Now, ahead of the crucial COP26 summit in Glasgow, the UK can again lead the world by committing to the phase-out of unabated gas in the power sector and supercharge the domestic green industrial revolution across the country. A gas phase-out also gives the UK the opportunity to swiftly move away from expensive imported gas, and instead build cheap domestic renewables.

“It is possible to phase out unabated gas by 2035 and build a power system with 75% to 90% share of variable renewable generation by 2050.”

The Climate Change Committee, Sixth Carbon Budget

“Emissions from power generation fall to net zero in advanced economies by 2035 and globally by 2040.”

The International Energy Agency (IEA), Net Zero by 2050

Experts agree

This briefing summarises the findings from three expert groups, who show that a zero-emissions power sector is possible and desirable for the UK. The Climate Change Committee, National Grid, and the Energy Systems Catapult have demonstrated the UK power sector can be more than 99% fossil free by 2035 or before. This timescale fits with the International Energy Agency’s analysis – to reach global net zero emissions by 2050, all OECD power sectors must be net zero emissions by 2035, followed by a fully net zero global power sector by 2040. Moreover, this transition can be done without risking security of supply.

Countries agree

An unspoken consensus is emerging across influential countries and blocs that the first stop on the road to net zero by 2050 is a zero-emissions power sector by 2035, as Ember outlined in this recent report. In the United States, President Biden has committed the country to “a carbon pollution-free electricity sector no later than 2035”. And in the European Union, the ‘Fit for 55’ package indicates nearly zero-carbon electricity across the bloc by the mid-2030s.

Models agree

A zero-emissions power sector is the next major step towards meeting the UK’s economy-wide target of net-zero emissions by 2050. By replacing fossil power with clean electricity, the power sector can enable the decarbonisation of other sectors of the economy, including heating, transport and industry. In this briefing, we compare the key findings of modelling by the CCC, National Grid and ESC scenarios, and show how they all point towards the decarbonisation of the UK power sector in the 2030s.

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Acknowledgements

Cover photo: Geoff Smith / Alamy Stock Photo