{"id":7459,"date":"2024-08-06T08:03:00","date_gmt":"2024-08-06T08:03:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ember-energy.org\/analizler\/domestic-coal-is-far-from-providing-a-baseload-in-turkiye"},"modified":"2025-03-13T18:48:47","modified_gmt":"2025-03-13T18:48:47","slug":"yerli-komur-baz-yuk-saglamaktan-uzak","status":"publish","type":"insight_page","link":"https:\/\/ember-energy.org\/tr\/analizler\/yerli-komur-baz-yuk-saglamaktan-uzak\/","title":{"rendered":"Yerli k\u00f6m\u00fcr baz y\u00fck sa\u011flamaktan uzak"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Yerli k\u00f6m\u00fcr baz y\u00fck sa\u011flamaktan uzak<\/h1>\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de bulunan yerli k\u00f6m\u00fcr kurulu g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kapasite fakt\u00f6r\u00fc ile \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, s\u0131kl\u0131kla ar\u0131za kaynakl\u0131 \u00fcretim kay\u0131plar\u0131 ya\u015famas\u0131, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck emre amade oran\u0131na sahip olmas\u0131 bu kayna\u011f\u0131n baz y\u00fck sa\u011flamaktan uzak oldu\u011funu ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n

Mevcut diller: English<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h4>\n <\/div>\n\n\n

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6 A\u011fustos 2024<\/div>\n
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20 dakika okuma s\u00fcresi<\/strong><\/div>\n
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\n Bahad\u0131r Sercan G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f
<\/strong>\n Energy Analyst, T\u00fcrkiye\n Ember<\/em>\n <\/div>\n<\/a>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n
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\u0130\u00e7indekiler<\/h3>\n
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<\/div>\n Y\u00f6netici \u00f6zeti<\/a>\n
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<\/div>\n T\u00fcrkiye net s\u0131f\u0131r hedefinden uzakla\u015f\u0131yor<\/a>\n
\n B\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc okuyun\n \uf061<\/span><\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
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<\/div>\n K\u00f6m\u00fcr baz y\u00fck m\u00fc?<\/a>\n
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<\/div>\n Sonu\u00e7<\/a>\n
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\u00d6nemli Noktalar<\/h2>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n \n
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%52<\/div>\n <\/div>\n
T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki yerli k\u00f6m\u00fcr santrallerinin emre amade kapasite oran\u0131<\/div>\n <\/div>\n
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22 TWh<\/div>\n <\/div>\n
T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de k\u00f6m\u00fcr santrallerinin ar\u0131zalar\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00fcretim kayb\u0131<\/div>\n <\/div>\n
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K\u00f6m\u00fcr kaynakl\u0131 emisyon miktar\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin toplam emisyonu i\u00e7erisindeki pay\u0131<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n
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Hakk\u0131nda<\/h2>\n
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Bu analiz T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin k\u00f6m\u00fcr yak\u0131tl\u0131 santrallerinin mevcut stokunu, geli\u015fimini ve elektrik \u00fcretimindeki performans\u0131n\u0131 inceleyerek kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmal\u0131 analizini sunmaktad\u0131r. Verilerimiz \u00fccretsizdir ve kolayca indirilebilir<\/a>.<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n \n \n\n <\/div>\n\n
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Medyada \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kanlar<\/h3>\n \n Anadolu Agency\n \"\"\n <\/a>\n \n Haberler\n \"\"\n <\/a>\n \n D\u00fcnya\n <\/a>\n \n Haber7\n \"\"\n <\/a>\n \n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n
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Y\u00f6netici \u00f6zeti<\/p>\n

Yerli k\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fcn elektrik \u00fcretim performans\u0131 baz y\u00fck olmaktan uzak<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n
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Son on y\u0131lda k\u00f6m\u00fcrden elektrik \u00fcretimi iki kat\u0131na ula\u015f\u0131rken, 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda 118 TWh\u2019lik<\/a> k\u00f6m\u00fcr kaynakl\u0131 elektrik \u00fcretimi T\u00fcrkiye tarihinin en y\u00fcksek \u00fcretimi olarak kay\u0131tlara ge\u00e7ti. Di\u011fer yandan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki yerli k\u00f6m\u00fcr rezervlerinin b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enerji potansiyeli ve y\u00fcksek nem i\u00e7eri\u011fi santrallerin \u00fcretim performans\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrken ayn\u0131 zamanda birim elektrik \u00fcretiminde y\u00fcksek miktarda k\u00f6m\u00fcr t\u00fcketilmesi ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla y\u00fcksek emisyonlara ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131na neden oldu.<\/p>\n

\u00d6zellikle yerli k\u00f6m\u00fcre dayal\u0131 termik santraller; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck verimlilik, emre amade g\u00fc\u00e7 ve kapasite kullan\u0131m oranlar\u0131 beraberinde s\u0131kl\u0131kla ar\u0131za ya\u015famalar\u0131 ve d\u00fczensiz \u00fcretim profilleri nedeniyle baz y\u00fck santrali performans\u0131ndan olduk\u00e7a uzakt\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin baz y\u00fck olarak adland\u0131r\u0131labilecek s\u00fcrekli elektrik talebinin yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 GWh oldu\u011fu tahmin edilmektedir. Yerli k\u00f6m\u00fcre dayal\u0131 santraller g\u00f6sterdikleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck elektrik \u00fcretim performans\u0131 ile bu talebin kar\u015f\u0131lamas\u0131nda yetersiz kalmaktad\u0131r. Elektrik \u00fcretiminde k\u00f6m\u00fcre ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n azalt\u0131lmas\u0131, emisyonlar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi ve ekonomik kay\u0131plar\u0131n \u00f6nlenmesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik \u00f6neme sahiptir. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin, vakit kaybetmeden k\u00f6m\u00fcrden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f stratejisini belirlemesi ve yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rmas\u0131yla, gelecekte kar\u015f\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131 ekonomik ve \u00e7evresel y\u00fcklerin hafifletilmesi sa\u011flanabilir.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

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01<\/div>\n
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K\u00f6m\u00fcrden elektrik \u00fcretimi kaynakl\u0131 emisyonlar T\u00fcrkiye emisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n %20\u2019sine denk<\/h4>\n

K\u00f6m\u00fcrden elektrik \u00fcretimi son on y\u0131lda iki kat\u0131na ula\u015f\u0131rken 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda 118 TWh\u2019lik k\u00f6m\u00fcrden elektrik \u00fcretimi T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin en y\u00fcksek \u00fcretimi olarak kay\u0131tlara ge\u00e7ti. Artan \u00fcretim sonucunda k\u00f6m\u00fcre dayal\u0131 termik santraller 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda 111 milyon ton karbon emisyonuna neden oldu. Di\u011fer bir ifadeyle, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin emisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n be\u015fte biri yaln\u0131zca k\u00f6m\u00fcre dayal\u0131 termik santrallerden kaynakland\u0131. K\u00f6m\u00fcre dayal\u0131 santrallerden kaynaklanan emisyonun y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 2012-2023 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda %6,2 oldu.<\/p>\n

Di\u011fer yandan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki k\u00f6m\u00fcr rezervlerinin \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n \u0131s\u0131l de\u011ferinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131, birim elektrik \u00fcretimi i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek miktarlarda k\u00f6m\u00fcr t\u00fcketilmesini gerektirmektedir. Linyit yak\u0131tl\u0131 santrallerde 1 MWh elektrik \u00fcretimi i\u00e7in ortalama 1.700 kg k\u00f6m\u00fcr t\u00fcketilirken \u0131s\u0131l de\u011feri yerli k\u00f6m\u00fcre g\u00f6re y\u00fcksek olan ithal k\u00f6m\u00fcr yak\u0131tl\u0131 santrallerde 1 MWh elektrik \u00fcretimi i\u00e7in 350 kg k\u00f6m\u00fcr kullan\u0131ld\u0131. Is\u0131l de\u011ferin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nde bulunan k\u00f6m\u00fcr santrallerinin verimliliklerinin g\u00f6rece y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131 ayn\u0131 miktarda elektrik \u00fcretimini i\u00e7in T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin %50 daha fazla k\u00f6m\u00fcr t\u00fcketmesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

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02<\/div>\n
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Yerli k\u00f6m\u00fcr santralleri baz y\u00fck sa\u011flamaktan olduk\u00e7a uzak<\/h4>\n
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Yerli k\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fcn kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131 ortalama %48 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015firken ithal k\u00f6m\u00fcr ve r\u00fczgarda bu oran %71 ve %34 olarak hesapland\u0131. Yerli k\u00f6m\u00fcrde 4 GW\u2019tan fazla kurulu g\u00fcc\u00fcn %50 kapasite fakt\u00f6r\u00fc alt\u0131nda \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Baz\u0131 yerli k\u00f6m\u00fcr santrallerinde bu oran\u0131n %16\u2019ya kadar d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken r\u00fczgar santrallerinin k\u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc santralleri geride b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. R\u00fczgar santrallerinin yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte birinin %40\u2019tan fazla kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131 ile \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 hesapland\u0131. En d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck orana sahip on santralin tamam\u0131n\u0131 yerli k\u00f6m\u00fcr santralleri olu\u015fturdu.<\/p>\n

Di\u011fer yandan, emre amade kapasite oran\u0131n\u0131 %75\u2019in \u00fczerinde tutabilen sadece \u00fc\u00e7 yerli k\u00f6m\u00fcr santrali olurken, yerli k\u00f6m\u00fcre dayal\u0131 santrallerin ortalama olarak yakla\u015f\u0131k yar\u0131 kapasitesinin kullan\u0131labildi\u011fi hesapland\u0131. Di\u011fer bir ifadeyle, incelenen 10,4 GW yerli k\u00f6m\u00fcr kurulu g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn yaln\u0131zca 5,4 GW\u2019l\u0131k k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n elektrik \u00fcretebilir durumda oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

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Ar\u0131za kaynakl\u0131 \u00fcretim kay\u0131plar\u0131 ortalama y\u0131ll\u0131k 22 TWh<\/h4>\n
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K\u00f6m\u00fcre dayal\u0131 santrallerde ya\u015fanan ar\u0131zalar\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama 22 TWh \u00fcretim kayb\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirlendi. Di\u011fer bir ifadeyle, k\u00f6m\u00fcrde ar\u0131za kaynakl\u0131 \u00fcretim kayb\u0131 toplam \u00fcretimin be\u015fte birinden y\u00fcksek de\u011fere ula\u015ft\u0131. Yerli k\u00f6m\u00fcr santrallerinde ar\u0131za kaynakl\u0131 kay\u0131plar ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen \u00fcretimin %31\u2019ine e\u015fitken ithal k\u00f6m\u00fcrde bu oran %13 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. \u00dcretimlerine oranla en fazla ar\u0131za kaynakl\u0131 \u00fcretim kayb\u0131 ya\u015fayan on santralin dokuzunu yerli k\u00f6m\u00fcr santralleri olu\u015fturdu. Yerli k\u00f6m\u00fcr santralleri, her bir TWh elektrik \u00fcretimi i\u00e7in 1.500 saat ar\u0131za s\u00fcresi ya\u015farken, bu de\u011fer ithal k\u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc santrallere g\u00f6re 5 kat daha y\u00fcksek ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

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“\u00c7e\u015fitli destekler ile baz y\u00fck sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 iddia edilerek elektrik sisteminde tutulan k\u00f6m\u00fcr santrallerinin b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131, ger\u00e7ekte baz y\u00fck performans\u0131ndan olduk\u00e7a uzak durumda. Di\u011fer yandan, g\u00fcne\u015f ve r\u00fczgardan elektrik \u00fcretiminin bu kaynaklara g\u00f6re daha az maliyetle elektrik \u00fcretebilir olmas\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin temiz enerji d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc yolunda bir f\u0131rsat olarak kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin vakit kaybetmeden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck performans g\u00f6steren ve maliyetli olan k\u00f6m\u00fcrden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015fa y\u00f6nelik stratejisini belirlemesi ve \u00f6zellikle g\u00fcne\u015f enerjisindeki y\u00fcksek potansiyelini kullanarak temiz enerji d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc h\u0131zland\u0131rmas\u0131 gerekiyor.”<\/p>\n

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Bahadir Sercan G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f
\u200d<\/strong>Energy Analyst, Ember<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n
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\u00a0T\u00fcrkiye net s\u0131f\u0131r hedefinden uzakla\u015f\u0131yor<\/h3>\n

K\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fcn elektrik \u00fcretimindeki pay\u0131 artmaya devam ediyor<\/h2>\n

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T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de elektrik \u00fcretim emisyonlar\u0131, k\u00f6m\u00fcrden elektrik \u00fcretiminin son y\u0131llardaki y\u00fckseli\u015fi nedeniyle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimi g\u00f6stermiyor.<\/h3>\n

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Son on y\u0131lda k\u00f6m\u00fcrden elektrik \u00fcretimi yakla\u015f\u0131k iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131<\/h4>\n

T\u00fcrkiye 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda, k\u00f6m\u00fcrden 118 TWh elektrik \u00fcreterek\u00a0k\u00f6m\u00fcrde rekor \u00fcretime<\/a>\u00a0ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f ve Almanya\u2019dan sonra Avrupa\u2019da k\u00f6m\u00fcrden en \u00e7ok elektrik \u00fcreten ikinci \u00fclke olmu\u015ftur. Bu \u00fcretim, ayn\u0131 zamanda toplam \u00fcretimdeki k\u00f6m\u00fcr pay\u0131n\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7te birin (%36) \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kartm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. K\u00f6m\u00fcrden elektrik \u00fcretimindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n itici g\u00fcc\u00fc ithal k\u00f6m\u00fcr yak\u0131tl\u0131 santral kurulumlar\u0131ndan kaynaklanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ithal k\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fcn elektrik \u00fcretimi i\u00e7erisindeki pay\u0131 2015 itibariyle yerli k\u00f6m\u00fcr pay\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7mi\u015ftir. Son on y\u0131lda k\u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc santrallerde kapasite %65 artarken y\u0131ll\u0131k k\u00f6m\u00fcrden elektrik \u00fcretimi 64 TWh\u2019ten 118 TWh de\u011ferine ula\u015farak neredeyse iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.\u00a0Yeni kurulan ithal k\u00f6m\u00fcr santralleri ile ithal k\u00f6m\u00fcrden \u00fcretilen elektri\u011fin toplam elektrik \u00fcretimindeki pay\u0131, 2013 y\u0131l\u0131nda %12 iken 2023\u2019te %22\u2019ye y\u00fckselmi\u015ftir. Yerli k\u00f6m\u00fcrden elektrik \u00fcretiminin toplam \u00fcretim i\u00e7erisindeki pay\u0131 ise 2013 y\u0131l\u0131na g\u00f6re sabit kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Ayr\u0131ca, k\u00f6m\u00fcrden elektrik \u00fcretiminin pay\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131n gelecekte d\u00fc\u015fmeyece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de Enerji Piyasas\u0131 D\u00fczenleme Kurumu\u2019nun (EPDK) elektrik sekt\u00f6r\u00fc\u00a0lisans veri taban\u0131na<\/a>\u00a0g\u00f6re i\u015fletmede 51 adet k\u00f6m\u00fcr yak\u0131tl\u0131 termik santral bulunmaktad\u0131r. Santrallerden 13 adedi ithal, 33 adedi linyit, 4 adedi yerli ta\u015f k\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fc ve 1 adedi asfaltit k\u00f6m\u00fcr kullanmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Linyit yak\u0131tl\u0131 santrallerin toplam kurulu g\u00fcc\u00fc 10 GW iken kamu \u015firketi olan Elektrik \u00dcretim Anonim \u015eirketi (E\u00dcA\u015e) sahipli\u011findeki linyit santralleri 2,4 GW\u2019l\u0131k kapasiteye sahiptir. E\u00dcA\u015e b\u00fcnyesinde, linyit yak\u0131tl\u0131 santraller haricinde k\u00f6m\u00fcr santrali bulunmamaktad\u0131r. \u0130thal k\u00f6m\u00fcr yak\u0131tl\u0131 santrallerde 11 GW, ta\u015f k\u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc santrallerde 841 MW ve asfaltit santralinde 405 MW\u2019l\u0131k kurulu elektrik \u00fcretim kapasitesi bulunmaktad\u0131r. Enerji ve Tabii Kaynaklar Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (ETKB) taraf\u0131ndan haz\u0131rlanan\u00a0Ulusal Enerji Plan\u0131\u2019nda (UEP)<\/a>\u00a0k\u00f6m\u00fcr yak\u0131tl\u0131 santral kurulu g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn mevcuttaki 22 GW\u2019l\u0131k kapasitesinin 2035 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar 24 GW de\u011ferini ge\u00e7ece\u011fi tahmin edilmektedir. Di\u011fer bir ifadeyle, planda 2035 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar k\u00f6m\u00fcr kurulu g\u00fcc\u00fcnde 2,5 GW\u2019l\u0131k art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

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