Solar and wind growth meets all new electricity demand in the first three quarters of 2025

Forecast: No fossil growth in 2025

This surge in clean power leaves fossil generation at a standstill. Fossil generation declined slightly by 0.1% (-17 TWh) in the first three quarters of 2025. Ember forecasts no growth in fossil generation for the full year of 2025, marking the first time since the Covid-19 pandemic that fossil power will not have risen despite growing electricity demand.

Behind the global shift lies another key factor: weather. Electricity demand rose by 2.7% in the first three quarters of 2025, down from a 4.9% increase in the same period of 2024. Unlike last year, when extreme heatwaves pushed up cooling needs across China, India and the US, 2025 saw milder conditions that helped temper demand growth.

The 2025 data signals that clean power has entered a new phase. For the first time outside of major disruptive events such as the Covid-19 pandemic or the global financial crisis, growth in clean power sources has not only kept pace with global electricity demand but exceeded it. The next stage will be defined by how consistently this trend can be maintained, as continued clean power expansion determines whether fossil generation remains flat or begins to decline.