Grid bottlenecks threaten progress on EU energy security
Europe’s energy strategy depends on both electrification and an expansion of domestic renewable power. Electrifying transport, heating and industry is central to reducing reliance on and price exposure to imported fossil fuels, but this strategy only works if clean electricity supply can keep pace.
Grid barriers impact both large renewable projects and household installations. Across the 17 countries reporting transmission grid capacity, more than two-thirds (66%) of new wind and large-scale solar planned by 2030 are at risk. Insufficient grid capacity could delay or prevent 16 GW of rooftop solar installations, affecting more than 1.5 million households in six out of the 13 countries reporting distribution grid data.
“Following the 2022 energy crisis, investment in rooftop solar surged as households sought protection from volatile energy prices,” continued Elisabeth Cremona. “As countries look for ways to protect themselves from the present energy price spikes, we can’t afford for grids to stand in their way.”
Grid readiness will make or break investment and household electrification
Grid constraints are also shaping where new investment can take place in Europe. As industrial and data centres demand grows, project developers are likely to favour locations where grid capacity is available. Across the seven countries that publish this data, three have zero capacity for new industrial load: Austria, Bulgaria and Romania. Czechia has ample available capacity, with Belgium and Latvia also able to accommodate substantial new demand.
The analysis finds that some of Europe’s grids are positioned well to accommodate new electricity demand from household electrification. Six out of the eight reporting countries have enough grid capacity for up to one-third of households to connect a new heat pump. However, Poland and Spain would face major limitations, as distribution grid capacity for new demand is limited.
For countries facing grid capacity constraints, there are immediate measures that can rapidly unlock capacity and enable consumers to connect to the grid. Non-wire solutions would enable Europe to connect up to 185 GW new demand without any physical expansion of the network.
