Falling battery costs can unleash Mexico’s full solar potential and boost energy security
Mexico’s abundant and consistent sunshine makes it possible to significantly reduce, or even eliminate, reliance on imported US gas in power generation.
Available in: Español
18 Sep 2025
53 Minutes Read
Highlights
90%
Solar and batteries can meet 90% of Mexico’s total electricity demand with just 6% excess supply.
21%
Solar power will be central to reaching 45% clean electricity in Mexico by 2030, contributing 21% of total electricity through the addition of 36 GW of solar capacity and 30 GWh of battery storage.
50%
Building 36 GW of solar and 30 GWh of battery storage to reach a 45% clean electricity share by 2030 could cost up to 50% more than the global average. According to IRENA and CFE data, solar costs in Mexico are 38% higher and battery costs nearly double the global level.
Executive summary
Mexico has the potential to become a global solar superpower and strengthen its energy security
The abundant and consistent sunshine across Mexico makes it possible for solar power to become the backbone of its electricity system. Rapidly scaling solar could reduce or even eliminate reliance on imported US gas for power generation, strengthening national energy security. Unlocking this potential requires Mexico to leverage rapid advances in battery technologies while closing the gap between its solar installation costs and the global average.
Solar electricity has become one of the most affordable power sources. As Ember’s analysis has previously demonstrated, declining costs and technical improvements in battery storage have brought round-the-clock solar electricity within reach in the world’s sunniest regions – especially for countries able to access these technologies at the global average prices. With battery technologies expected to keep improving, the case for solar-plus-storage is only getting stronger.
Building on that foundation, this report focuses on Mexico’s vast untapped solar potential and its unique opportunity to harness it for a cleaner, more secure energy future.
Currently solar plays a marginal role in Mexico’s power mix, providing just 6.6% of total electricity in 2023. However, by 2030, it will be central to achieving a 45% clean electricity share, making up a fifth of the mix – a level already achieved by Chile and Spain last year. Under a more ambitious ‘solar superpower’ scenario, solar could provide 58% of Mexico’s electricity by 2030, eliminating the need for US gas imports in power generation. Beyond 2030, Mexico’s enormous solar potential offers the prospect of an even more transformative energy future.
Key takeaways
01
Mexico has strong solar potential, ranking among the world’s top locations for solar resources
To test this potential, we analysed solar radiation data for 16 locations across the country to assess how close they could get to uninterrupted electricity supply every hour of every day with just solar and battery. The results show that a system combining 600 MW of solar capacity with 1,700 MWh of battery storage could reliably power a 100 MW industrial facility, such as a factory or data centre, nearly round-the-clock. On average, most locations could achieve such uninterrupted supply for more than 300 days a year, with no supply shortfalls. When shortfalls did occur, they were typically brief – still providing around 20 hours of constant supply across the day. In a global comparison of 12 cities, Mexico City ranked third-best in performance. The country also ranks among the world’s top 20 for solar potential, with an estimated 4.9 kWh generated per 1 kWp of installed capacity.
02
Mexico’s vast solar potential makes it technically possible to supply 90% of total electricity generation with solar and batteries, with just 6% excess supply
We tested the limits of Mexico’s solar potential through hourly simulations using 18 years of solar radiation data, assessing whether solar power combined with battery storage could meet national electricity demand as it fluctuates hourly, daily and seasonally. The results show that, assuming no grid congestion constraints, 90% of Mexico’s 2023 total electricity generation could be met with 190 GW of solar capacity and 600 GWh of battery storage, with just 6% excess supply of total solar output. Matching 100% of total electricity generation is also possible with 260 GW solar capacity and 950 GWh storage, though this comes with higher excess supply – 23% of the total solar output.
03
By unlocking its vast solar potential, Mexico can significantly reduce its dependence on imported gas for power generation even without building a lot of battery storage
Solar currently plays a limited role in Mexico’s electricity system. Accelerating deployment to reach 36 GW of capacity by 2030 can reduce reliance on imported gas from the United States by around 20%, while helping achieve a 45% clean electricity share. At this level, a large amount of battery storage would not be essential. However, if nearly all new solar projects follow the proposed battery storage mandate (battery capacity equal to 30% of solar capacity with 3 hours discharge), they would make the system more efficient, reducing excess electricity from 3.5% of solar output to less than 0.7%. Looking further, in an ambitious ‘solar superpower’ scenario that fully harnesses batteries, Mexico could displace all imported US gas from its power generation.
04
Higher solar installation costs in Mexico are holding back its full potential
The rapid advancement in battery technologies, both in price and performance, is a major gamechanger for sunny countries like Mexico. However, to fully realise its solar potential, Mexico will need to close the cost gap with global benchmarks for solar and battery installation. While data on local installation costs is limited, evidence suggests that solar costs in Mexico are 38% above the global average, while battery costs are double. Based on these estimates, Ember calculated that building 36 GW of solar capacity and 30 GWh of battery storage in Mexico could be 50% more expensive than the global average.
Mexico has an opportunity to position itself as a solar superpower as the world rapidly shifts to this affordable, scalable and resilient source of electricity, described by the International Energy Agency as ‘the cheapest form of electricity in history’. Rapid advances in battery technologies, both in terms of price and performance, further strengthen the case for sunny countries like Mexico.
However, higher installation costs continue to hold back Mexico’s full solar potential. While data on local costs remain limited, evidence from IRENA and Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE) suggests that both solar and battery projects are significantly more expensive than the global average. Reaching 47 GW of installed solar by 2030 is feasible if deployment accelerates to match the current pace of Brazil or Chile. Such growth could also help drive steep cost reductions.
Mexico can close the cost gap through a combination of measures: launching large-scale competitive procurement, streamlining permitting and transmission expansion, implementing lower-cost financing tools and adopting industrial policies to strengthen domestic supply chains.
Mexico has the solar potential to power its future with clean, reliable electricity. As batteries continue to get cheaper, more efficient and longer-lasting, harnessing this potential will become more economically attractive. With the right investment and policy support, Mexico can close the gap with global installation costs to unlock its full solar potential and strengthen its energy independence.
Ember’s report powerfully shows that Mexico can be a true solar superpower. By harnessing our abundant sunshine and reducing reliance on imported gas, it offers a vision of a cleaner, more resilient, and hopeful energy future.
Isabel Studer
President, Sostenibilidad Global
President, Sostenibilidad Global
The report is technically sound and demonstrates Mexico’s enormous solar potential, but technological advancement must also be accompanied by political will, citizen awareness and acceptance, well-evaluated and addressed social and environmental impacts, regulatory optimization, access to competitive financing, and the promotion of competitive economic processes that drive the energy transition. In other words, a comprehensive vision is required that combines technology, public policy, energy justice, and good governance.
Ana Lilia Moreno
Program Coordinator, México Evalúa
Program Coordinator, México Evalúa
Supporting materials
Downloads
Download the full report PDF
Methodology
The methodology for this report can be found by downloading the PDF above.
Acknowledgement
Contributors
Ember: Richard Black, Kingsmill Bond, Neshwin Rodrigues, Rashmi Mishra, Hannah Broadbent, Nicolas Fulghum, Claire Kaelin, Ardhi Arsala Rahmani, Chelsea Bruce-Lockhart, Patricia Tiffany
We thank our external reviewers Isabel Studer (President, Sostenibilidad Global), Ana Lilia Moreno (Program Coordinator, México Evalúa) Ade Samuel (Energy Analyst International, NRDC)
Photo credit: William Luque / Getty Images
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