Ember Research Spotlight: satellite observations reveal coal super-emitters, but monitoring gaps persist

Satellite data are exposing large, previously unseen methane emissions from coal mines around the world. However, even though 70% of coal production is located in regions deemed favourable for detection, satellites currently only capture emissions from 10%, highlighting the need to expand targeted coverage over major coal-producing regions.

New high-resolution satellites are rapidly expanding the number of methane sources that can be observed from space. The Tanager-1 satellite from Carbon Mapper became fully operational in the summer of 2025, and early insights suggest a large increase in the number of observations.

This growth in satellite data, combined with extensions of current missions, is already helping to close the gap between official inventories and independent measurement-based estimates.

Yet coverage remains uneven. This spotlight examines how well current satellite infrastructure maps onto the geography of global coal production, comparing where satellites are effectively capturing emissions and identifying regions where countries should focus on expanding or improving satellite monitoring to better track coal mine methane.

The analysis in this chapter relies on publicly available data; additional high-resolution satellite detections owned by private companies are not included and may provide more comprehensive coverage.

The number of methane plumes detected from coal mines has risen sharply in recent years. Between 2019 and 2024, satellite observations of methane emission plumes from coal mines increased from 101 to 1,509, an approximately 1,400% increase, while cumulative detected emissions rose from 6.8 to 10.8 million kilograms per hour.

While the number of satellite observations of methane from coal mines is increasing, emissions can still go undetected due to unfavourable monitoring conditions or limited satellite coverage, as detections largely depend on routine observation footprints.

To assess how well coal-producing regions are covered by satellite observations, Ember compares the theoretical detectability of methane emissions, driven by local environmental conditions, with the frequency of detected plumes using data from GEM.

Using all publicly available high-resolution data, GEM associated a specific methane plume at 227 of approximately 5,000 active coal mines.

This analysis focuses on hard coal, which has higher gas content than lignite and is therefore both a greater source of methane emissions and more likely to produce detectable plumes from space.

The theoretical detectability classifications used throughout this section are based on Ember’s previous analysis, which assessed how local environmental conditions affect the availability of satellite data across locations and seasons. Coal mines were classified as Favourable, Moderate or Difficult based on how challenging methane emissions are to observe in theory.

Ember analysis found that the majority (71%) of coal production is in favourable conditions for detection, 17% is located in regions with moderate conditions and 12% in difficult conditions.

Only 10% of hard coal production has been observed so far

When comparing the theoretical potential for satellite detection to the frequency of detected plumes, Ember found that only 10% of global hard coal production has been observed via satellite, defined here as having at least one attributed methane plume detected at a coal mine site.

This gap between theoretical detectability and actual detection rates points to factors beyond geography, such as satellite overpass frequency, instrument tasking priorities and the clustering of mining infrastructure. This determines whether emissions are captured in practice and represents a profound gap in understanding what is being emitted at most of the world’s active coal mines.

Eight of the top nine CMM emitters still lack adequate satellite coverage

Eight of the top nine coal producers have fewer plumes detected than would be expected given favourable viewing conditions. South Africa and Australia’s coal production is in 99.5% and 92% favourable conditions, respectively, yet only 7% and 20% of their hard coal production have had at least one plume attributed to them (see Methodology for full details).

Almost none of India’s hard coal production has publicly available detections, even though 73% lies in regions classified as favourable for satellite observation.

Indonesia also records 0% detection, and only 16% of its coal production is in favourable monitoring conditions. The remainder is located in areas with persistent cloud cover and rugged terrain.

In Kazakhstan, 35% of hard coal production has been detected, while 77% is situated in favourable regions.

This discrepancy highlights that favourable geography alone is not enough, as limited satellite overpass frequency still leaves large emissions unseen.

Poland and Canada have exceptionally good coverage due to greater regulatory scrutiny

Satellites have the ability to detect methane plumes across a greater share of coal production than the proportion of mines considered favourable for detection suggests.

In Canada, only 16% of hard coal mines are classified as favourable, yet plumes are detected across 31% of the country’s hard coal production. Similarly, in Poland, 46% of mines are deemed favourable, but plumes are detected across 49% of hard coal production.

Canada’s higher detection rates are reinforced by high-resolution plume data from Carbon Mapper, a North America-based initiative that has prioritised systematic coverage of the region. In Poland, the EU Methane Regulation’s stringent venting restrictions and mandatory reporting requirements have driven greater regulatory scrutiny of mine emissions, which in turn has led to more frequent and targeted satellite observations of Polish coal mines.