New Generation꞉ Building a clean European electricity system by 2035

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Methodology

Power system modelling

The pathways are computed using the Artelys Crystal Super Grid power system modelling platform – a leading tool in European energy system planning. As input, assumptions about the energy sector (outlined above) are converted into hourly electricity demand profiles across entire years, taking into account increasing demand from a variety of new sources. Each type of new demand changes the profile of electricity demand in a unique way, across hours and seasons. While the study is focused on power system evolution (and decarbonisation) by 2035, all pathways were computed in 5-year time intervals between 2020-2050. This ensures investments before 2035 have foresight of possible energy system configurations beyond 2035. Hourly power system modelling was carried out, by which investments in and operation of the power system is optimised, minimising cost, while ensuring security of supply over the year – in line with European system security standards. Three years of actual historic weather data was used to simulate every modelled year, of which an average is typically presented. This ensures that a variety of weather conditions and their impact on wind and solar output are accounted for. The impact of weather (temperature) on demand is also included, particularly important as heating is increasingly electrified and cooling demand grows.

Acknowledgements

Authors at Ember

Dr Chris Rosslowe, Elisabeth Cremona and Tomos Harrison.

Modelling

Study conducted with the support of Artelys: Christopher Andrey (project director), Luc Humberset (project manager), Sixtine Dunglas and Thomas Ridremont (modelling and analysis). Modelling performed with the Artelys Crystal Super Grid tool.

Peer reviewers

With thanks to expert peer reviewers: Léa Hayez and Andrzej Ceglarz (Renewables Grid Initiative), Jörg Mühlenhoff (CAN Europe), Claire Maraval (ReClaim Finance), Artur Patuleia and Pieter de Pous (E3G), Prof Tom Brown (Technische Universität Berlin), Christian Redl and Alexander Dusolt (Agora Energiewende), Keith Allott and Molly Walsh (European Climate Foundation), Bram Claeys (Regulatory Assistance Project).