National targets still aim for a doubling instead of a tripling

Record-setting renewables deployment over the past three years since COP28 has not translated into stronger ambition through national targets.

Since COP28, aggregate 2030 renewables capacity targets in Ember’s 2030 Global Renewable Target Tracker have increased marginally — from 7,238 GW to 7,793 GW — a rise of just 8%. 

This means the latest renewables targets still show a 2.3-fold increase in renewable capacity from 2022 to 2030. National ambition therefore remains aligned with a doubling, rather than a tripling.

Ember has been tracking the change in renewables targets since 2023, and the figures have not substantially changed. At COP28 in 2023, Ember’s analysis of 2030 national renewable targets showed that governments were collectively aiming for a doubling of renewable capacity — from 3.4 TW in 2022 to 7.3 TW in 2030. A year later at COP29 in 2024, updated Ember analysis showed a modest increase in the sum of national targets to 7.4 TW in 2030 – no country outside the EU updated its 2030 renewables target between October 2023 and October 2024, according to the analysis.

Now at COP30, there has been a rise of 8% in targets in the last 12 months. This increase mostly comes from China (+779GW), partly offset by a 197 GW fall in the US, with smaller changes from 22 other countries, discussed in Ember analysis from July 2025. 

China’s upgrade follows its release of its new NDC that includes a 2035 target of 3,600 GW for wind and solar. Ember has calculated the 2030 target based on the needed wind and solar annual installation rate of ~200 GW from 2024 to 2035 to meet the 2035 target. The derived 2030 target amounts to 2,604 GW, an increase of 779 GW over the prior target used from a 2021 national energy forecast study conducted by GEIDCO, a government-affiliated think-tank.

The estimated implicit target for the US has been updated to reflect lower expectations for renewables due to political changes. The previous estimate of 938 GW was taken from a National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) study that simulated changes to the US power system as a result of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL). However, these were revoked in early 2025 and the new One Big Beautiful Bill Act aims to roll back much of the IRA, including a phasing out of renewable tax credits. In Ember’s analysis, the IEA main case forecast of 741 GW for the US is used as an implicit national target as it reflects executive orders announced between January and July 2025. Clearly, this is not a formal target in itself and is highly uncertain.

A global tripling of renewables capacity means a quintupling of solar to 6,101 GW and a tripling of wind to 2,742 GW by 2030.

Both solar and wind targets fall short, but in different ways

Solar targets set by countries fall far short of both the quintupling needed by 2030 and what is expected to be installed based on 2030 forecasts. Wind targets are roughly aligned with wind forecasts, but both fall short of a tripling.

National solar targets fall far short of forecasts and a global tripling

Solar capacity forecasts for 2030 from the IEA range from 5,706 to 6,331 GW for the main and accelerated case and are slightly more conservative than BNEF and Solar Power Europe forecasts (6,640 and 7,000 GW, respectively). Broadly, 2030 solar forecasts are aligned with the 6,101 GW solar quintupling associated with a global tripling of renewables, although it is important to note the recent downward revision of the IEA main case from 5,828 GW in 2024 to 5,706 GW in 2025. As presented in the IEA Renewables 2025 report, this is primarily due to a reduction in the utility scale solar PV forecast, mainly in China and the US. 

However, the combined 2030 national solar targets set by countries amount to just 3,110 GW, barely half of the 6,101 GW level mentioned in the IEA NZE tripling scenario. This means deployment is running ahead of political ambition: solar is booming in reality, but governments are still not planning for it. Stronger solar targets are needed to guide investment and ensure timely grid and storage development.

National wind targets and forecasts align, but both fall short of global tripling

Wind forecasts for 2030 from the IEA range from 2,003 to 2,205 GW for the main and accelerated case. BNEF and GWEC are comparable with 2,120 GW and 2,116 GW forecast for 2030. These forecasts all fall short of the 2,742 GW of wind capacity needed to meet a global tripling goal. 

National wind targets set the world on course for 2,223 GW of wind capacity in 2030, similar to the forecasts. However, both still leave a meaningful gap to the level required.