London, 7 December – Analysis by energy think tank Ember shows that adopting a 45% renewable energy target rather than 40% would slash EU gas imports in half and save €43 billion euros in gas costs in 2030. Across the period from 2025 to 2030 this could amount to an estimated €200 billion in additional savings.
Next week, energy ministers will vote on raising the EU renewable energy target from 40% to 45% by 2030. REPowerEU, the new ambitious plan to rapidly cut Russian gas, assumes 118 billion cubic metres of gas imports in 2030 compared to 236 bcm in the ‘Fit for 55’ MIX scenario. Total installed renewable energy capacity will increase from 1067 GW to 1236 GW, with wind and solar doing the heavy lifting.
The analysis by Ember applies Dutch Title Transfer Facility forward prices to estimate gas cost savings. Based on current forecast gas prices in 2030, gas imports would cost €86 billion in 2030 with the 40% target, tumbling to €43 billion with 45%. Extrapolating back, the higher target could achieve potential savings of €200 billion between 2025 and 2030.
