Indonesia’s coal phase-out promise requires retiring 3 GW annually and increasing renewables share in the power-mix to 65% by 2040

Indonesia delivered arguably one of the strongest climate promises of 2024 when President Prabowo Subianto announced announced at the G20 Summit in Brazil that the country will phase out coal by 2040. The Special Envoy to COP29 also confirmed Indonesia’s aim to add 75 GW of renewable capacity by 2040.

Indonesia’s leaders have recognised the urgent need to decarbonise the electricity supply. The key question now is how to accelerate it: the country must turbocharge its renewable ambitions, leveraging its abundant renewable resources.

Ember’s analysis outlines a clear pathway to achieve these goals: add 8 GW of renewable capacity annually while reducing coal usage by 3 GW each year for on-grid power, which is essential for a complete coal phase-out by 2040. This means a renewable energy target more ambitious than the government’s 75 GW goal for 2040.

Moreover, integrating 4 GWh of battery storage annually until 2040 would allow Indonesia to maximise its solar energy usage, especially during peak demand periods in the non-solar hours. This pathway aligns with the renewable energy goals outlined in the JETP CIPP document and the projected addition of 103 GW of power capacity by 2040.

With electricity demand expected to grow by around 5% annually in the coming years, the report shows that Indonesia can meet the projected 806 TWh of electricity demand by 2040, if renewable energy share reaches 65%. Solar would contribute 20%, wind 11%, and other renewables—such as nuclear, geothermal, bioenergy, and hydro—would make up 34%.