The Heat Beneath Our Feet꞉ Ember Analysis Reveals Geothermal Could Replace 42% of EU Coal and Gas Power

BRUSSELS – New analysis from Ember reveals that a technological leap in deep-earth drilling is poised to transform geothermal energy from a niche “volcanic” resource into a mainstream power source. The study shows that geothermal could replace 42% of the European Union’s coal and gas-fired generation, providing a stable, “always-on” alternative to fossil fuels for less than €100/MWh – the cost of coal and gas electricity.

“Once restricted to a few geological hotspots like Iceland or Tuscany, modern geothermal is now cost-competitive with gas across much of the continent,” said Tatiana Mindekova, Ember Policy Advisor and author of the report. “As Europe seeks to slash emissions while meeting the energy demands of heavy industry and AI data centers, this untapped resource offers a clean, firm power supply that remains insulated from the price volatility of imported fossil fuels.”

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Burcu Ünal Kurban
Communications Officer Europe – Ember
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Europe’s geothermal potential may expand fiftyfold

For decades, depth has been the primary barrier to geothermal deployment. Conventional plants rarely operated deeper than three kilometers, strictly limiting their geographic reach. However, advances in drilling and “Enhanced Geothermal Systems” (EGS)—techniques adapted from the oil and gas sector—are now unlocking heat from much deeper, hotter rock layers.

Ember identifies that approximately 43 GW of enhanced geothermal capacity in the EU could be developed at costs below €100/MWh today, making it comparable to coal and gas electricity. In a market where coal and gas prices recently fluctuated between €90 and €150/MWh, geothermal serves as a price-competitive alternative.

If fully deployed, this identified capacity could generate roughly 301 TWh of electricity annually. The largest potential in the EU is concentrated in Hungary, which leads the region with a 28 GW potential, followed by Poland, Germany, and France.

Mindekova explains that this represents “a carbon-free resource that doesn’t rely on the weather and strengthens energy security” for regions traditionally dependent on fossil fuel imports.

The EU’s Geothermal Action Plan must include clear commitments to liberate Europe’s power sector from costly fossil fuel dependency. The potential to replace 42% of coal and gas generation with geothermal is simply too significant to ignore. Ember’s report highlights the crucial role geothermal plays in delivering affordable energy, security, and competitiveness. With Energy Ministers and the European Parliament calling for concrete action, it is now up to the European Commission to remove the barriers to mass geothermal deployment.

Sanjeev Kumar
‍Policy Director, European Geothermal Energy Council

Europe has far more geothermal potential than is commonly accounted for. Next-generation geothermal strengthens Europe’s heat sector and extends its impact to clean, secure, and reliable electricity across much of the continent. Continued investment in innovation and supportive policy can turn this resource into a major pillar of EU’s clean firm power system.

Jenna Hill
‍Superhot Rock Geothermal Innovation Manager, Clean Air Task Force

Could meet up 64% of increase in data-center electricity demand

As power demand for digital infrastructure grows, geothermal offers a unique solution. Recent trends in the US suggest that geothermal could cost-effectively meet up to 64% of the anticipated increase in data-center electricity demand by the early 2030s. For European tech hubs, this provides a pathway to meet climate targets while ensuring grid stability for energy-intensive operations.

Europe is at risk of being left behind

The analysis warns that despite being a pioneer in the early testing of these methods, Europe is at risk of being left behind. While the US and Canada are aggressively scaling up projects with targeted policy incentives, European deployment remains hampered by lengthy permitting processes and the absence of a unified EU-level strategy.

Mindekova warns that the window of opportunity for European industrial leadership is narrowing.

Modern geothermal is pushing the energy transition to new depths, opening up clean power resources that were long considered out of reach and too expensive. But today, geothermal electricity can be cheaper than gas. It’s also cleaner and reduces Europe’s reliance on fossil imports. The challenge for Europe is no longer whether the resource exists, but whether technological progress is matched by policies that enable scale and reduce early-stage risk.

Tatiana Mindekova
‍Policy Advisor, Ember

The Heat Beneath Our Feet: Geothermal Could Replace 42% of EU Coal and Gas Power

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Full materials

Europe’s geothermal potential may expand fiftyfold

Could meet up 64% of increase in data-center electricity demand

Europe is at risk of being left behind

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