Wind hybrid plants in Kazakhstan could meet 70-90% of typical electricity demand at lower cost than new coal, Ember finds

Wind, solar and a small battery could meet 70-90% of a typical electricity demand profile for an average delivered cost of $56/MWh, offering an affordable way for Kazakhstan to meet rising demand and reduce reliance on its ageing coal fleet.

Astana, 3 November 2026: Kazakhstan could meet much of its growing electricity demand with wind power supported by solar and battery, at a lower cost than building new coal power, according to new analysis by global energy think tank Ember. The modelling finds that wind hybrid plants could meet 70-90% of typical electricity demand hour by hour at an average delivered cost of $56/MWh, with projects built close to demand centres and existing power lines, rather than in the windiest locations, to limit the need for major new transmission infrastructure.

Kazakhstan has some of the world’s strongest wind resources, but wind generated just 4.4% of its electricity in 2025, compared with a global average of 8.6%. “Kazakhstan has a vast untapped high-quality wind resource that with some solar and a small battery can reach similar reliability to what solar and more batteries can do in sunny places at an affordable cost. Wind resources are great across most of its territory, so hybrid projects can be built close to demand, minimising major additional transmission lines”, report author Kostantsa Rangelova said.

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Wind resources are rich enough to bring power closer to demand

Around 66% of Kazakhstan’s territory has average wind speeds above 7 metres per second at 100 metres above ground, excellent for commercial wind projects. In comparison, less than a third of Germany has wind speeds above this level.

Ember tested the local weather data of 15 sites across Kazakhstan near demand centres and existing power lines, simulating the hourly output of 125 hybrid power plant configurations that combine different wind, solar, and battery capacity to evaluate their ability to meet a typical demand profile. The results from the simulations, matching supply and demand hour by hour across a 30-year project lifetime, show that the country’s strong wind resources could provide an affordable source of electricity near demand. This could reduce the need for major new transmission lines to connect remote power plants to consumers.

By combining wind with solar and a small battery, these hybrid plants can provide electricity more consistently than wind alone. The modelling finds that hybrid plants can meet 70-90% of demand, depending on the site, at an average delivered cost of around $56/MWh – under $60/MWh at every site, lower than the cost of new coal power, estimated at $70-170/MWh.

Kazakhstan has a vast untapped high-quality wind resource that with some solar and a small battery can reach similar reliability to what solar and more batteries can do in sunny places at an affordable cost. Wind resources are great across most of its territory, so hybrid projects can be built close to demand, minimising major additional transmission lines

Kostantsa Rangelova
‍Report author

Smartly operated hybrid plants can be a source of system flexibility

The simulations showed that the best-performing hybrid plants deliberately build more wind and solar capacity than can be absorbed by the demand profile every hour. Their generation cost averages $45/MWh, in line with Kazakhstan’s recent wind auctions. Delivering a reliable supply adds about $11/MWh, taking the average delivered cost to $56/MWh. That extra cost is the price of the surplus capacity that is curtailed in windy or sunny hours: it is a design choice made by the plant, and fundamentally different from grid-ordered curtailment without compensation.

At system level, a single project does not need to meet all demand with 100% reliability on its own. 70-90% is the most a single project can meet for under $60/MWh.The remaining 10-30% can be provided more efficiently by a more flexible, interconnected power system, which Kazakhstan has yet to build.

Wind hybrid plants offer a unique opportunity for Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan’s electricity demand increased by 16% between 2020 and 2025, from 107.3 TWh to 124.6 TWh. The country has been a net electricity importer since 2022 and aims to achieve electricity self-sufficiency by 2027 and potentially become a net exporter by 2029. Coal accounted for 62% of electricity generation in 2025, and the country’s coal fleet is more than 50 years old on average. Wind hybrid plants offer a unique opportunity to meet these challenges and by providing a way to build an affordable and reliable source of home-grown electricity quickly and at scale near to where demand is.

Kazakhstan has a target for renewables to supply 15% of electricity generation by 2030, but has no dedicated target for wind and solar beyond that date. The report recommends a clear target for wind and solar beyond 2030 that would give investors greater certainty and help Kazakhstan make better use of its wind resources. Market rules that reward flexibility would also help integrate more renewable electricity and make it a source of flexibility.

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Ember is an independent energy think tank that aims to accelerate the clean energy transition with data and policy. It creates targeted data insights to advance policies that urgently shift the world to a clean, electrified energy future.

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