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Methodology

Total gas consumption

In order to build a complete picture of the gas demand outlook for all 27 Member States, the NECPs were supplemented with 2030 gas demand projections from the ‘National Trends +’ (NT+) scenario of ENTSO’s 2024 Ten-Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP).

This report defines ‘gas demand’ according to Eurostat’s definition of ‘gross inland consumption’ (GIC). Twelve NECPs directly report GIC of gas in 2030. Nine NECPs report Primary consumption of gas in 2030. Primary consumption and GIC differ by inclusion of consumption for non-energy uses: GIC = Primary consumption + consumption for non-energy uses

A historic average ratio of non-energy uses to GIC was calculated for each Member State using Eurostat data. This ratio was used to convert Primary consumption to GIC where necessary.

For those NECPs that do not report GIC or primary consumption of gas, projections for total gas consumption in 2030 were taken from the NT+ scenario of ENTSO’s 2024 TYNDP. Data was taken from the ‘Supply Tool (MS Excel)’ download available from the TYNDP website. For each Member State, GIC of gas was found as the sum of the final energy demands for ‘Natural gas’, ‘Methane (LNG)’, ‘heat production (natural gas)’, gas for ‘Electricity generation’ and gas for ‘SMR’.

2023 GIC for gas was taken from the Eurostat database.

Electrification rate

Electrification rate is calculated as the ratio of electricity demand to total final energy demand. Twenty three NECPs provide data for total final energy demand in 2030. Seventeen of these NECPs also provide final energy demand for electricity. For the remaining six NECPs, projections for final energy demand for electricity were taken from the same source as gas consumption projections. The TYNDP data on final energy demand for electricity used in this report excludes the category ‘Electrical heating’. When supplemented with electricity demand projections from the NT+ scenario of the 2024 TYNDP, the electrification rates of 23 out of 27 Member States can be calculated, which together cover 95% of total final energy demand in 2023.

Data quality assessment

Each NECP’s coverage of data on emissions, final energy demand, electricity generation and installed capacity was classified as ‘complete’, ‘adequate’, ‘inadequate’ or ‘missing’ according to the below criteria.

Emissions

1. Complete – total emissions provided and complete breakdown of emissions by sector and sub sector
2. Adequate – total emissions provided, emissions by sector mostly provided
3. Inadequate – (not applicable here)
4. Missing – no data on emissions provided

Demand

1. Complete – total final energy demand provided, complete breakdown of final energy demand by sector by fuel provided
2. Adequate – total final energy demand provided, breakdown of demand by either fuel type or sector provided
3. Inadequate – total demand provided, none to some data on demand by fuel or sector provided
4. Missing – no data on final energy demand provided

Generation

1. Complete – total generation and data on all fuel types provided (including onshore and offshore wind split), any absent data can be clearly assumed to equate to zero values
2. Adequate – total generation, total renewables generation and total fossil generation at least provided or calculable
3. Inadequate – total generation, total renewables generation and total fossil generation not provided or calculable
4. Missing – no generation data provided

Capacity

1. Complete – installed capacity data for all fuel types provided (including onshore and offshore wind split), any absent data can be clearly assumed to equate to zero values
2. Adequate – at least data for wind and solar provided, total renewables and total fossil data provided or can be clearly inferred
3. Inadequate – at least data for wind and solar provided, data for other fuel types missing or limited meaning no totals calculable
4. Missing – no capacity data provided

Solar capacity

Solar capacity can be expressed in terms of alternating current (AC) or direct current (DC). Capacity stated in AC differs from capacity stated in DC by a factor of 1.25. However, member states do not follow a strict convention when reporting solar capacity and rarely specify whether they are reporting in terms of AC or DC. All care has been taken to ensure that the capacity numbers presented here are in units of direct current (DC, gross output). However, due to the lack of transparency on this issue in national reporting, not all capacity data can be guaranteed to be in units of DC.

REPowerEU wind capacity targets

In order to achieve a 45% share of renewables in total energy consumption, the REPowerEU plan targets 510 GW of wind capacity by 2030. However, according to WindEurope these targets assume an outdated average capacity factor for wind turbines in Europe. Using more recent capacity factors, WindEurope estimated that the goals of REPowerEU could be achieved with 440 GW of wind capacity.

Acknowledgements

Contributors

Ember: Ali Candlin, Reynaldo Dizon, Beatrice Petrovich, Chris Rosslowe, Lauren Orso, Claire Kaelin, Leo Heberer and Izabela Urbańska.

Photo credit

Joris Van Ostaeyen / Alamy Stock Photo