EU national targets show gas in decline
Analysis of final National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) shows EU renewables are on the rise, with gas set for a 7% decline by 2030.
17 Jun 2025
31 Minutes Read
Table of Contents
Executive summary
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Supporting materials
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Highlights
-7%
EU gas demand is set to fall by 7% from 2023 to 2030 according to national plans.
30%
EU national plans reveal a 30% electrification rate by 2030, up from 23% in 2023.
66%
The EU is headed towards 66% renewables generation by 2030 if national plans are achieved.
Executive summary
EU gas is set for decline, as electrification and renewables grow
Analysis of final EU countries’ energy and climate plans shows the EU economy is on the cusp of a shift towards a cleaner, more electrified energy system.
The final National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) of EU countries are in — for the most part. As countries set out how they will achieve EU energy and climate targets by 2030, key indicators reveal an EU energy transition in full swing.
Gas is set for a decline, showing that plans to expand EU gas infrastructure may result in stranded assets. Strong renewables targets combined with increasing electrification means the EU is heading towards an economy backed by clean electricity. Industry stakeholders, investors and policymakers should take note.
Key takeaways
01
EU gas is set to drop 7% in 2030 compared to 2023
Member States’ national plans show that consumption of gas is set to fall by 7% across the EU over the next five years. Building on previous Ember research, this indicates that additional build out of gas capacity could lead to oversupply and stranded assets.
02
EU plans an electrification rate of 30% by 2030
Across the EU, electrification is set to rise from 23% today to 30% by 2030. This shows that EU countries are planning on meeting future energy needs with more clean electricity and less fossil gas. Plans to increase electrification across the bloc signal that the EU is at the beginning of a new phase of its energy transition where the whole system is backed by clean electricity.
03
EU targets 66% renewables in electricity by 2030
Member States plan on doubling their total wind and solar capacity over the next five years, meaning renewables are set to generate two thirds of all EU electricity by 2030. However, these plans still fall short of REPowerEU targets.
National targets send a strong signal: the EU is ditching fossil gas for good. This gas decline is already in progress, and 2030 targets show another strong fall to come. An electrified economy is where the EU is definitively heading, and any rush to overbuild gas infrastructure will inevitably end in costly stranded assets.
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