Renewables targets

Renewables have been surging across Europe in recent years, rising from 34% of EU generation in 2019 to 47% of generation in 2024. Analysis of the final NECPs shows that the EU is not slowing down as Member States collectively target a 66% renewables share of electricity generation by 2030. This is a significant step up from today’s share, but still falls short of the REPowerEU ambition of 72%.

To achieve this, wind and solar capacities are roughly set to double. The final NECP documents show that the EU is aiming to build 670 GW solar and 450 GW wind capacity by 2030, up from 338 GW and 231 GW in 2024. This will require annual additions of 55 GW solar and 37 GW wind until the end of 2030. These solar additions are completely achievable given that between them, EU Member States built 65 GW of solar capacity in 2024. On the other hand, achieving the level of annual wind additions set out in the NECPs will require a significant step up in collective efforts. EU Member States have never before built more than 16 GW of wind capacity in a single year. However, there are encouraging signs that the wind pipeline is strengthening with 2024 seeing increased levels of wind farm permitting compared with recent years as well as more turbine orders and record levels of capacity up for auction.

The final NECPs show a slight increase in solar (+20 GW) compared to the previous draft documents submitted early last year, perhaps reflecting growing confidence in solar amid an EU-wide boom. However, even despite this increase and the high pace of planned build out, solar targets still put the final NECPs short of the REPowerEU target of 720 GW solar. On the other hand, Member States’ ambitious wind targets put final NECPs on track to meet the REPowerEU target of 440 GW wind by 2030 (see Methodology).

The strong upward growth in EU renewables planned over the next five years means that renewable energy will meet an increased share of energy demand. According to the European Commission’s assessment of the final NECPs, the EU is set to achieve a 41% share of renewables in gross energy consumption by 2030, putting the bloc within touching distance of the 42.5% target set out in the Renewable Energy Directive.

The result of a growing share of renewables in the EU’s energy mix is a reduction in economy-wide emissions. Final NECPs show that the EU plans to reduce total emissions by 54% from 1990 levels, very nearly hitting the EU’s target of a 55% reduction by 2030.

Comparing NECPs against industry market outlooks gives an indication on what Member States should focus on to successfully deliver on targets. Solar continues to beat expectations, with new infrastructure needs as a result, whereas significant action is required to achieve wind targets.

Solar installations have surpassed global expectations in the past few years and the most recent market outlooks for the EU suggest that this trend is set to continue. SolarPower Europe has forecasted that solar capacity will reach 816 GW by 2030. Not only does this comfortably surpass the REPowerEU target of 720 GW, but it also far exceeds the NECP plans for 670 GW solar. This is further evidence that solar is outpacing expectations and highlights the urgency with which Member States must plan and implement the policies to deploy more battery storage and smart electrification that will be necessary to maintain solar’s impressive growth.

While solar has surged in recent years, wind deployment in Europe has slowed due to grid bottlenecks and permitting issues. Indeed, industry body WindEurope forecasts the EU to have built only 350 GW of wind power by 2030, which is significantly (roughly 100 GW) lower than the NECP and REPowerEU targets. This does not mean that Member States should revise targets in line with market conditions, but rather highlights the urgency with which Member States need to address grid and permitting issues in order to deliver on their ambitions.