The EU’s national targets

National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) are the principal documents through which the EU Member States set out their plans to meet the EU’s climate and energy targets. Taken together, they should provide a concrete direction of travel across the EU, giving industry, investors and other stakeholders certainty at a time when Europe’s energy supplies are under intense scrutiny.

After a lengthy process, the current NECP cycle is drawing to an end. This revision cycle began in June 2023, when Member States had to submit draft NECP documents for the European Commission to appraise and provide feedback ahead of the June 2024 deadline for submission of final NECPs. At that time Ember analysis found that draft national targets put the EU just short of REPowerEU. Only a handful of Member States met the June 2024 deadline and to date, three countries (Belgium, Estonia and Poland) still have yet to submit a plan. However, the European Commission has recently published its own assessment of the final NECPs that have been submitted, in effect calling the process to a close.

The end of this NECP cycle comes at a time when Europe is at a critical inflection point in its energy transition. Europe’s dependence on imported fossil gas is at the core of the EU’s energy crisis and vulnerabilities in international competitiveness. Despite this, some actors are rushing towards LNG contracts and gas infrastructure as a kneejerk reaction to geopolitical instability, with the EU currently planning on expanding its gas infrastructure.

However, the EU’s own plans map a path away from imported fossil gas dependence and its inherent risks. There is growing understanding that clean smart electrification of Europe’s economy can transform the bloc into a lasting and secure global competitor, as demonstrated by the recent Clean Industrial Deal and Action Plan for Affordable Energy. Analysis of the Member States’ NECPs reflects an intention to deliver on this, showing how the bloc is increasingly shedding fossil gas reliance and moving to an electrified future.