A hybrid approach needed to approve accountability

Satellite emissions verification highlights a considerable gap in Australia’s existing emissions measurement regime.

Australia’s current method for measuring coal mine methane emissions urgently requires verification. The satellite analysis outlined in this, and previous studies indicates that coal mine methane emissions could be considerably higher than reported at both national and subnational levels. Through an analysis of TROPOMI data across 2020 – 2021 financial years, we have identified significantly increased fugitive methane levels across key coal mining clusters in both NSW and Queensland.

Our cluster-based analysis covered only 79% of Australia’s black coal production, but identified 40% more fugitive methane than officially reported in 2020. The study’s areas included more than 90 per cent of Australia’s metallurgical coal production, indicating significant potential for emissions uncertainty within the key steelmaking coal supply chains, including within the EU. The fugitive emissions uncertainty outlined in this study highlights a potential risk for Australian metallurgical exporters seeking sustained access to European markets in particular.

At a state level, we identified emissions levels twice as high as official reporting in NSW across both 2020 and 2021. This indicates a significant discrepancy between atmospheric measurement-based estimates and emission inventories that is especially relevant for upcoming DCCEEW departmental reviews of site-level facility emissions estimations (Method 2) and Australia’s Expert Panel on Atmospheric Measurement.

While only a limited number of source areas were considered, we believe the approach presented in this initial study represents an opportunity for further consideration and potential incorporation within Australia’s emissions inventory.  By incorporating satellite data, such as the TROPOMI analysis outlined in this study, Australia could identify discrepancies in existing emissions reporting methodologies and actively monitor long-term trends without needing to punitively assess individual facilities.

A hybrid approach, integrating additional top-down satellite or aerial emissions measurements, could enable DCCEEW to pinpoint potential hotspots for further investigation, complementing ground-based measurements and enhancing the accuracy and transparency of emissions data. This would progressively build trust in Australia’s fugitive emissions measurement approach, improve regulatory oversight and support more effective policy decisions. Ultimately, it would help Australia reduce coal mining emissions in line with climate goals, fostering greater accountability and strengthening emissions tracking for more robust environmental oversight.