Africa is on track for a record year of solar installations in 2026, up 45% year-on-year, driven largely by distributed solar

A new methodology behind this analysis traces Chinese customs export data to country level, then applies a calibrated installation rate based on installation patterns across the EU and five other markets, where around 73% of exported panels are typically installed within six months. Because Chinese export data is already available through June 2026, the methodology makes it possible to estimate Africa’s full-year installations months.

The new solar installed in 2026 alone is expected to generate around 23 TWh a year, enough to meet Africa’s average annual electricity demand growth over the past decade. In more than half of Africa’s 54 countries, the rise in solar generation is expected to exceed the historic pace of demand growth.

Ten countries, home to a combined 190 million people, will see 2026’s new solar add more than 10% to annual electricity generation: Sierra Leone (97%), Togo (24%), Somalia (21%), Djibouti (21%), DRC (14%), Comoros (14%), Namibia (12%), Liberia (12%), Chad (11%) and Lesotho (10%).

Africa’s solar panel manufacturing is also set to quadruple in 2026, reaching around 3.5 GW as new plants come online in Egypt and Tanzania. However, most of this output is destined for export to the US, and 94% of the panels installed across Africa are still imported from China. Manufacturing data is also limited, with little documentation either by governments or publicly elsewhere.