Gas deficit
In 2030, Colombia will face an estimated deficit of 14,556 Giga British Thermal Units (GBTU), when domestic gas production and import capacity will be insufficient to meet domestic demand.
The gas deficit will grow each year. In 2030, the deficit will represent 3.9% of total gas demand, reaching 52% in 2039.
“Colombia is heading towards a scenario of strained gas supply,” said Wilmar Suárez, Latin America analyst at Ember. “The smartest option is to reduce demand in sectors where it is quickest and cheapest to do so. Relying solely on expanding supply – whether domestic or imported – increases exposure to economic and geopolitical risks.”
Solutions: electrification and efficiency
The report identifies that residential electrification and increased energy efficiency in industry could reduce gas demand by 21,545 GBTU in 2030. This would avoid gas imports worth $190 million USD in 2030. In ten years, this would save all the gas used by industry in two years or by households in three, avoiding imports worth $2 billion.
Today, industry uses 24% of the country’s gas, with almost half of this being used for oil refining and coal coking. Households account for 15% of gas consumption, almost all for cooking. Together, these are two of the key sectors for reducing demand.
In the industrial sector, energy efficiency in direct and indirect heating processes could reduce gas consumption by more than 14,000 GBTU per year, equivalent to a 14% reduction in industrial gas demand.
In households, replacing 10% of gas stoves with electric or induction appliances would reduce consumption by an estimated 6,061 GBTU in 2030. This would be supplemented by an additional reduction of 1,020 GBTU for the same year if 30% of water heaters were replaced.
