Cooling doubled electricity demand growth in China in August and September 2024 compared to the same period in the previous year. It accounted for all the year-on-year demand increase in the US in June and was also responsible for more than one-third of the year-on-year demand growth in May in India.
In China, the average temperatures in August and September 2024 were the highest recorded for these months in the last 10 years. Ember estimates that cooling doubled the year-on-year power demand increase in these two months. In total, 31% of China’s increase in electricity demand from April to September 2024, compared to the same period in 2023, was due to higher air cooling needs.
The impact of heatwaves was especially strong in June in the US with average temperatures rising to 23.8°C, the highest for the month in the past decade. Cooling accounted for the entire year-on-year electricity demand increase in that month. Ember estimates that demand in the country would have fallen by 1.3% in June but air cooling needs resulted in a 9.4% rise instead. 37% of the US increase in electricity demand from April to September 2024, compared to the same period in 2023, was driven by higher use of air cooling.
May 2024 was the hottest in India, with temperatures averaging 31.7°C, a 1°C increase from May 2023. Cooling accounted for almost one-third of year-on-year demand increase in that month, and for 19% of the year-on-year demand growth from April to September 2024 in the country. The contribution of cooling to demand increase in India was less pronounced compared with the US and China, likely due to unmet air cooling needs in the country and strong economic growth leading to a rise in demand from other sectors.
Coal generation surged to meet heatwave-driven demand
As temperatures soared, putting strain on the grid, all three countries turned to coal, while the US additionally relied on gas to ease the pressure.
The months most affected by hotter temperatures accounted for most of the annual increase in coal generation in China. 59% of China’s 2024 annual coal generation growth happened in just August and September.
While clean energy met over two-thirds of the demand increase in the US in June, the rest was supplied by gas and coal. In that month, coal generation grew by 6.4% year-on-year and gas generation by 4.6% year-on-year, noticeably higher than the 2024 annual average growth.
In India, clean energy fulfilled 19% of the increased power demand in May, while coal met 70% and gas covered the rest.
