The analysis finds that solar capacity will grow significantly across the region, with an average of 22% growth each year across the five economies, with the fastest growth rates expected in Indonesia and the Philippines.
China currently has a goal to install a total of 1,200 GW of wind and solar by 2030.
While it does not have an isolated goal for its future solar capacity additions, solar power has accounted for a 50% share of capacity additions on average between 2012 and 2021.
China could reach a total capacity of at least 600GW of solar by 2030. We believe this to be a cautious estimate, as some analysts estimate that China could reach its 1200 GW wind and solar goals as soon as 2026.
While the latest power development plan (RUPTL 2021-2030) shows a significant increase for solar leading to 2030, it is still significantly below its 200,000 MW of solar potential.
According to the Government’s roadmap toward Net Zero Emission (NZE) by 2060, new power capacity by 2030 will come exclusively from renewable energy, and starting 2035, power generation will be dominated by Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) in the form of solar power, followed by wind and ocean currents in the following year.
The Philippines also has had a high ambition for solar. In 2019, the Philippines legislated officialised plans to add 18 GW of solar by 2030, and Solar Philippines hopes to surpass the 10 GW mark by 2025. If achieved, the 2030 mark would be almost 12 times more than the current level (1,370 MW).
The new administration also seems set on reviewing several key policies on energy systems planning and management, which will be crucial in ensuring that solar not only gets built quickly, but the grid can adjust and benefit from the potential influx of affordable and clean solar power generation.
Solar energy should be prioritised as the main energy source in Indonesia’s next power development plan.
India is planning to reach 300 GW of solar power by 2030, a 6 fold increase on current levels. If achieved, it would make it home to one of the world’s largest solar fleets by the end of the decade.
According to Ember’s state-by-state analysis conducted in April, India added a record 14 GW of new solar capacity in the 12 months leading up to March 2022, beating its previous record of 9.4 GW installed in 2018.
India has established a good track record on solar capacity additions and is well-positioned to make a sprint towards its target of 300 GW by 2030, with increased private sector buy-in.
A key challenge for managing this expansion will include investments in grid stabilisation and energy market reform. Already home to some of the lowest cost of solar power in the world, India now needs comprehensive policy reform to benefit from rooftop-solar’s expansion.
In the last few years, India saw an increasing number of private power generators committing to their own RE targets, with most of them especially bullish on solar.
While Asia’s growing energy demand has often been framed through the lens of its coal, gas or nuclear dependence, solar power is growing rapidly across the region. With further investments in energy storage and policy support to manage grid stabilisation, solar is well positioned to become a core part of Asia’s energy future.
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