Offshore wind targets underpin acceleration to 2030 and beyond

About

At the request of the Global Offshore Wind Alliance (GOWA), Ember has developed an authoritative and up-to-date overview of offshore wind targets worldwide, encompassing national, regional and provincial commitments. This analysis provides a comprehensive picture of current ambitions and progress toward deployment, serving as a key input ahead of COP30. By tracking targets and assessing implementation trends, the report aims to encourage governments to set or strengthen their offshore wind ambitions and accelerate action to stay on track with global energy and climate goals.

Summary

Clear and ambitious offshore wind targets are the cornerstone of progress — providing the market visibility, investor confidence and policy certainty needed to accelerate deployment at scale. Targets are more than political statements; they are powerful economic instruments that signal long-term commitment and unlock investment.

This report provides a comprehensive overview of offshore wind targets worldwide, covering national, subnational and regional commitments, and showing that governments remain broadly committed to offshore wind, despite recent challenges.

Key findings:

A total of 27 countries have set national targets for offshore wind. In addition, there are 27 subnational targets, including 3 in countries that do not yet have a national target. There are also three regional targets. Among the 27 countries with national targets, 22 have a national target for 2030, 18 have a post-2030 target and 7 include specific floating offshore wind targets.

Offshore wind deployment is about to surge, even though many countries are likely to fall short of 2030 targets. The Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) projects that offshore wind capacity will almost triple between 2024 and 2030, increasing from 83 GW to 238 GW. Despite this rapid growth, many countries are expected to miss their 2030 targets, with some shifting timelines into the early 2030s. These shortfalls reflect the challenge of meeting ambitious targets that initially helped to drive investment and market growth. Over the past year, momentum has slowed, with GWEC reducing its 2030 global outlook by 25% compared with last year.

A further 88 countries have offshore wind potential, with 11 actively developing plans. In 2019, the World Bank assessed the offshore wind potential of 115 countries, of which 27 now have national targets. Amongst the remaining 88 countries, 9 are members of the Global Offshore Wind Alliance (GOWA) – Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Malta, Panama, Papua New Guinea, Saint Lucia, Trinidad and Tobago.

Offshore wind already delivers 83 GW of energy capacity across the world, enough to power 73 million homes. Government targets have been fundamental to help drive the scale-up of the offshore wind industry this decade. To countries thinking about agreeing new targets or extending existing targets, the message is clear: now is the time to act, to help spur the next wave of growth.

Dave Jones
‍Chief Analyst, Ember

Offshore wind targets have proven to be powerful drivers in accelerating deployment, giving governments, investors, and industry the pipeline visibility needed to plan and invest with confidence. Pipelines deliver projects, and projects deliver progress on energy and climate goals. Despite recent obstacles facing the sector, the fundamentals of offshore wind energy have not changed. We are now seeing positive momentum building and concrete steps being taken worldwide to advance offshore wind – a technology with decades of proven success at scale. With Brazil joining GOWA at COP28 in Dubai and now holding the COP30 Presidency, we call on the Presidency to truly make this a COP of implementation and encourage governments to recognise offshore wind as a cornerstone of the clean energy transition.

Amisha Patel
‍Head of Secretariat, Global Offshore Wind Alliance (GOWA)

In 2025, the US government sought to halt offshore wind development by issuing stop-orders against Equinor’s Empire Wind and Orsted’s Revolution Wind projects, both under offshore construction. The orders were later reversed, allowing both projects to resume. Around 5.8 GW of offshore wind is still expected to be built in the US between 2025 to 2029, based on the five projects currently under construction. The impact of US actions on the rest of the world has so far been limited, with Canada most recently advancing its first offshore wind auction in Nova Scotia.

In The People’s Republic of China, provincial governments are in the process of setting their 2030 targets. Several other countries are now looking beyond 2030 as they announce their 2035 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

At a time when the industry is facing cost inflation, supply chain pressures and permitting delays, credible targets offer stability and direction. They anchor offshore wind within national energy strategies, guide infrastructure and workforce planning and demonstrate that governments remain committed to delivery despite short-term challenges. Without clear targets, investment slows, supply chains lose momentum and countries risk falling behind in the global race towards clean, secure and affordable energy.

Aligning targets with timely policy reform and collective action across government and industry will be critical to translating ambition into delivery — ensuring offshore wind fulfils its promise as a pillar of energy security, industrial growth and national resilience.

As the world moves rapidly towards an electrified future, now is the moment for governments to reaffirm and raise their offshore wind ambitions.

Current offshore wind targets

This section analyses the current global landscape of offshore wind targets.

There are currently 27 countries with national offshore wind targets. In addition, there are 27 subnational targets, including 3 in countries without national targets. Three regional targets also exist in Europe: the North Sea, the Baltic Sea and the EU-level target. Details of all national, subnational and regional targets are provided in the appendix.

27 countries currently have offshore wind targets

Of the 27 countries, 22 have 2030 national targets. Some are legally binding; whilst most are not, but governments are implementing roadmaps and plans to enable market development. The combined 2030 targets add up to 263 GW, excluding China, which does not yet have a national target.

European Union: 15 countries with targets, totaling 99 GW. Germany (30 GW) and the Netherlands (21 GW) account for over half of this capacity.
United Kingdom: Country with the largest national target, ranging from 43 GW to 50 GW.
India: 30–37 GW.
United States: 30 GW.
Other Asian countries: South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and Viet Nam together account for the remaining 41 GW.

18 countries have post-2030 targets. These targets are generally less formal than 2030 targets. Countries with legally backed post-2030 targets include Germany (2035, 2045), France (2035), Greece (2032), Türkiye (2035). Beyond these 18 countries, many countries have roadmap documents beyond 2030, which are not defined here as targets.

Seven countries have floating offshore wind targets: Floating wind is at an earlier pre-commercial stage compared to fixed-bottom, yet holds significant potential.

While none of the 12 countries are projected to fully meet their 2030 offshore wind targets, European countries are expected to perform better than elsewhere, with much smaller shortfalls. In contrast, the US is forecast by the IEA to have the greatest shortfall, while Japan and Korea are expected to reach only around a third of their 2030 target.

2030 targets: UK (5 GW) and Portugal (2 GW).
Post-2030 targets: France, Norway, Korea and the United States. Japan recently set a goal of developing 15 GW by 2040.
Many countries with total offshore targets have most of their potential in floating wind, meaning a large portion of their future offshore capacity is likely to be floating. Examples include Finland, Greece, Ireland, Italy and Spain.

Subnational/provincial targets exist in 27 states/provinces across five countries:

- Two countries have subnational targets, in addition to national targets:
  - US: 11 states have targets, totaling 84 GW.
  - South Korea: 3 provinces have targets.

Three countries have subnational targets, without national targets:
- China: 11 coastal provinces have targets for 2025, totaling 64 GW.
- Australia (Victoria): 2 GW by 2032, 4 GW by 2035, 9 GW by 2040.
- Canada (Nova Scotia): Licensed capacity of 5 GW by 2030.

China does not currently have a national target. It has 11 coastal provinces targets for 2025, totalling 64 GW set under the 14th Five Year Plan (FYP). The 15th FYP will likely set 2030 provincial targets, and potentially include a national 2030 target. President Xi recently announced a 2035 wind and solar target providing guidance for overall wind growth of 100 GW per year between 2026 and 2035. Provincial targets for 2025 are in the appendix. On 20th October, the Beijing Declaration 2.0 was signed, which stated annual installed wind power capacity shall be no less than 120 GW, including no less than 15 GW offshore wind capacity, during the “15th Five-Year Plan” period (2026-2030). 15 GW is almost double the 8 GW average achieved during 2021-2025.

Other countries are now looking beyond 2030 as they announce their 2035 NDCs. Already eight countries have offshore wind in their NDCs (or NDC reference documents): Azerbaijan (1.5 GW, no date), Barbados (150 MW for 2035), Brazil (“develop a roadmap for offshore wind”), EU (60 GW for 2030), Japan (10 GW for 2030), Türkiye (5 GW for 2035), Vietnam (“complete policies and the national maritime spatial plan”) and United Kingdom (50 GW for 2030).

Offshore wind capacity is likely to triple by 2030

The Global Wind Energy Council’s Global Offshore Wind Report 2025, forecasts offshore wind capacity will almost triple in just six years – from 83 GW in 2024 to 238 GW by 2030. This is consistent with the latest IEA Renewables flagship report (October 2025), which forecasts the range in 2030 from 224 GW (main case) to 270 GW (accelerated case). To achieve this, annual installations also need to triple, from 8 GW in 2024 to 26 GW in 2025 to 2030.

Much of this growth is underpinned by ambitious offshore wind targets. According to the IEA, 12 countries are expected to have offshore wind capacity by 2030, all with explicit targets. However, none are projected to fully meet their 2030 targets. Many countries signal they may reach their 2030 target a year or two later, but are not abandoning the targets. Most 2030 targets were deliberately set at ambitious levels to stimulate market growth, and in that sense, they have largely succeeded.

This year, GWEC downgraded its global outlook to 2030 by 25%. Similarly, the IEA’s latest forecast projects 27% less offshore wind capacity added between 2025 and 2030 compared to its October 2024 outlook — a significant downward revision that reflects the sector’s current headwinds. Much of this reduction stems from the removal of most planned US offshore wind capacity. While the official US target remains unchanged, recent policy reversals and market uncertainty have significantly undermined prospects of meeting it. The IEA has also adjusted its outlook for China, though the country is still expected to account for around 61% of global operational offshore wind capacity by 2030.

The targets themselves are broadly aligned with the global commitment to triple renewable capacity. A report launched by IRENA ahead of COP30, which tracks the UAE consensus, has found that offshore wind must reach 413 GW by 2030. The national 2030 targets compiled in this paper amount to around 258 GW, and when combined with China’s IEA forecast, reach approximately 395 GW — not far from IRENA’s global projection of 413 GW.

However, as previously expressed, the problem is to meet these targets. It means to scale up annual installations by a factor of six in the period of 2025-2030 to keep on track with the 1.5°C Scenario, when the current GWEC and IEA forecasts are only to triple additions.

This highlights the need for urgent actions on policy support, infrastructure and supply chains to address the key challenges, and implement solutions that will pave the way for achieving the scale required to meet the overall renewables tripling goal.

Expectations for beyond 2030 are substantial. IRENA’s World Energy Transitions Outlook 2024: 1.5°C Pathway report projects a further tripling to 1 578 GW by 2040.

What other countries have offshore wind potential?

This section looks at the countries that the World Bank assessed to have good offshore wind potential, but have yet to set targets.

In 2019, the World Bank assessed the offshore wind potential of 115 countries. Of these, 27 countries already have national targets, leaving 88 countries with untapped potential.

A further 88 countries have offshore wind potential, with 11 actively developing plans. In 2019, the World Bank assessed the offshore wind potential of 115 countries, of which 27 now have national targets. Among the remaining 88 countries, 9 are members of the Global Offshore Wind Alliance (GOWA) – Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Malta, Panama, Papua New Guinea, Saint Lucia, Trinidad and Tobago.

Who may be next to set targets?

There are 9 countries that are GOWA members, but have not yet set national targets: Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Malta, Panama, Papua New Guinea, Saint Lucia, and Trinidad and Tobago. See Appendix for the full list of GOWA government members.

In addition, all five EU countries with offshore wind potential are actively exploring development: Latvia and Bulgaria are developing targets, while Malta, Cyprus and Croatia are preparing plans.

Latin America is emerging as a promising region in 2025. Colombia already has a target and Brazil could be next. Having established a marine leasing framework, Brazil’s offshore industry, strong supply chain and grid capacity make it the most advanced market in Latin America. The first offshore auction is expected in 2026, with the first projects likely to be connected in the early 2030s.

Chile and Mexico are also both progressing offshore wind development, whilst Saint Lucia, Panama and Trinidad and Tobago have all joined as GOWA members.

Beyond Latin America, other countries that are also interested in developing offshore wind include Morocco, New Zealand and Azerbaijan.

Morocco will commence building Africa’s first offshore wind farm in 2029, with an installed capacity of 1 GW, near Essaouira. The country combines excellent Atlantic wind resources with a mature renewables policy framework, strong European ties and power-export ambitions through green-hydrogen and interconnectors to Spain and Portugal. Interest in a Mediterranean renewable energy alliance, particularly offshore wind, is also gaining momentum.

New Zealand is finalising a new offshore renewable energy framework, expected to open permitting in 2025. The first projects are likely to be commissioned in the early 2030s.

In Azerbaijan, offshore wind in the Caspian Sea is now a strategic pillar of clean-energy diversification beyond oil and gas, with strong appetite from international investors. The first 240 MW pilot zone near Baku is under preparation, with development tenders expected by 2026.

Offshore wind is a proven clean energy solution at utility-scale, as demonstrated by the early market adopters. There is an opportunity to capitalise on the success of existing markets to enable wider global markets to embrace and benefit from the technology.

Supporting information

Downloads

Offshore wind targets underpin acceleration to 2030 and beyond [PDF]

Additional materials

For a complete list of offshore wind targets, please see the appendix contained in the full report PDF.

Acknowledgements

Lead author

Dave Jones; Edited by: Amisha Patel (GOWA)

Peer reviewers

Feng Zhao (Global Wind Energy Council), Simon Benmarraze (International Renewable Energy Agency), Dan Kyle Spearman (GOWA/Magenta)

Contributors

Chelsea Bruce-Lockhart, Rashmi Mishra, Rini Sucahyo, Katye Altieri, Kostantsa Rangelova, Eli Terry (Ember); Kathryn Thomas (GOWA).

About Global Offshore Wind Alliance

The Global Offshore Wind Alliance (GOWA), co-founded by Denmark, IRENA, and GWEC and co-chaired by Colombia, has made strong progress in establishing itself as the world’s leading diplomatic platform for driving offshore wind ambition and cooperation. GOWA works to create a global driving force for the uptake of offshore wind through political mobilisation and the creation of a global community of practice. The aim of GOWA is to contribute to achieving a total global offshore wind capacity of a minimum of 380 GW by 2030, and 2000 GW by 2050.

GOWA members sign up to a Call to Action whereby they are requested to demonstrate ambition towards this shared goal. Since its launch at COP27 where nine governments joined the Global Call to Action, GOWA has grown to 27 government members (as of October 2025) with some demonstrating targets whilst others setting an intent and /or signalling plans and momentum to do so.