Unlocking the energy transition in Colombia: Strategies to reduce gas dependency
Colombia has lost its self-sufficiency in gas supply. Even under the most likely trajectory of domestic production and installed import capacity, supply would not be sufficient to meet demand from 2030 onwards. Energy efficiency and electrification could mitigate the growth in total gas demand in the coming years.
Available in: Español
4 Dec 2025
53 Minutes Read
Wilmar Suarez
Latin America Energy Analyst
Ember
Latin America Energy Analyst
Ember
Juan Felipe Parra Rodas
Energy Associate
Transforma
Energy Associate
Transforma
María Paulina Vásquez
Energy Associate
Transforma
Energy Associate
Transforma
Verónica Valencia
Energy Associate
Transforma
Energy Associate
Transforma
Highlights
2030
The year when domestic production and installed import capacity in Colombia are projected to fall short of demand.
10%
Households needed to switch to electric cooking to maintain residential gas demand in 2030 at the 2024 level.
-14%
The reduction in gas consumption that could be achieved in the industrial sector by implementing energy efficiency measures.
Executive summary
Colombia could reduce its dependence on imported gas through energy efficiency and electrification by 2030
Domestic gas production and import capacity will be insufficient to meet Colombia’s domestic gas demand from 2030 onwards. This context makes it necessary to evaluate alternatives to reduce consumption and prioritise its use in strategic sectors. Measures such as replacing 30% of heaters and 10% of gas stoves with electric appliances in the residential sector, together with a 14% reduction in gas use in industrial processes through energy efficiency measures, would reduce total demand in 2030 by 21,545 Giga British Thermal Units (GBtu), a figure equivalent to 1.5 times the projected gas deficit for that year. This would prevent gas imports worth $190 million USD.
Since the 1990s, the use of gas has been actively promoted in various sectors of the Colombian economy, resulting in a structural dependence that is difficult to reverse. The decline in domestic production has highlighted the country’s energy security vulnerability, requiring increasing imports to cover an average annual consumption of nearly 400,000 GBtu.
Today, industry uses 24% of the country’s gas, with almost half going to oil refining and coal coking, which shows a high potential for improvement in energy efficiency. In households, which account for 15% of gas consumption, the electrification of cooking and water heating would significantly reduce demand.
This report, prepared by Ember and Transforma, proposes technical and policy solutions aimed at planning a gradual reduction in gas use and preventing scarcity management from becoming a new form of dependency.
Key takeaways
01
From 2030 onwards, gas demand in Colombia will exceed estimated domestic production and import capacity
Colombia will face a gas supply deficit of 14,556 GBtu in 2030, growing to a total of 1.2 million GBtu between 2030 and 2038. Supply and demand projections indicate that by 2034, the deficit could be equivalent to the total demand of the residential and industrial sectors combined, highlighting the magnitude of the supply risk and the potential impact on the national economy.
02
Energy efficiency could reduce gas demand in industry by 14%
Increasing energy efficiency in industry in direct and indirect heating processes that currently use gas could reduce consumption by more than 14,000 GBtu by 2030. In total, for the period 2030-2039, this would amount to a projected reduction of 148,000 GBtu.
03
Replacing gas stoves with electric alternatives in 1 in 10 residential users would prevent gas demand in the residential sector from growing
Replacing gas cooking equipment with electric or induction equipment in 10% of households connected to the grid – a total of 1.2 million gas stoves – would reduce consumption by approximately 6,061 GBtu in 2030, allowing gas demand in the residential sector to remain similar to 2024 levels. Reaching 16% of residential users by electrifying cooking would keep the country’s total gas demand in 2030 at 2024 levels. Additionally, replacing 30% of water heaters – 32,000 units – would reduce consumption by 1,020 GBtu by 2030. In total, for the period 2030-2039, residential electrification – cooking and water heating – would offer a projected reduction of 76,500 GBtu in a scenario of replacing 10% of stoves, and 111,400 GBtu by replacing 16%.
The opportunity is enormous: in ten years, energy efficiency and electrification could save all the gas used by industry in two years or by households in three, avoiding gas import costs of $2 billion USD.
The report proposes concrete strategies for an orderly and gradual exit from gas. The first step is to reduce its consumption in sectors where viable technological alternatives already exist, through a national programme to replace gas appliances, and incentives for builders and buyers to electrify new homes. It also recommends reorienting subsidies and incentives towards efficient electrification and preparing the electricity system to absorb the new demand. To guide this process, it proposes developing a sectoral roadmap for technological substitution, accompanied by better integration of gas supply and demand planning, limits on the expansion of fossil fuel infrastructure, and a gradual change in the public and political narrative on the role of gas in the country’s energy future.
This path not only reduces risks, but also opens up the opportunity for Colombia to build a more competitive, cleaner and truly future-proof energy system.
Faced with an imminent gas supply deficit, it would be wise for Colombia to adopt policies that reduce its structural dependence on this fuel. It is essential to reverse the projected growth in gas consumption, mainly through the electrification of demand, to avoid the country being exposed in the medium and long term to imports in a volatile international market, where prices, availability and the geopolitical environment can seriously compromise national energy security.
Colombia must avoid allowing the urgency to secure gas supplies to become an excuse for maintaining them. Importing may be necessary for a time, but the goal is not to become more dependent, but to gradually exit from gas through a strategy that promotes electrification, efficiency and energy autonomy. Only then will the transition be fair, sustainable and truly transformative.
Giovanni Andrés Pabón
Director of Energy, Transforma
Director of Energy, Transforma
Supporting materials
Downloads
Download the full report PDF
Acknowledgement
Contributors
Ember: Wilmar Suárez, Rocío Rodríguez Almaraz, Hannah Broadbent, Chelsea Bruce-Lockhart, Nicolas Fulghum, Kingsmill Bond and Richard Black.
Transforma: Juan Felipe Parra, María Paulina Vásquez, Verónica Valencia, Santiago Rodas and Giovanni Pabón.
Photo credit: Carlos Alberto Ramírez Gaviria / Getty Images
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