Global analysis

The first half of 2025 saw positive progress in the global electricity transition, despite increasingly unstable weather, geopolitical turmoil and economic uncertainty. However, much more remains to be done to accelerate the transition and unlock the full economic, health, social and environmental benefits.

Solar growth was spectacular in the first half of 2025, while wind grew more moderately. Together, they met and exceeded the increase in electricity demand. 

1.1.1 Global demand increased at an average pace

Global demand rose by 369 TWh (+2.6%) in H1-2025, compared with 731 TWh (+5.3%) in the same period last year. The smaller increase was due to a few factors, including a more measured pace of industrial growth in China and India, but also fewer heatwaves in May and June in India.

In China, demand grew by 198 TWh (+4.2%), compared with a much stronger increase of 326 TWh (+7.5%) in the same period last year.

In India, demand growth was particularly low at 12 TWh (+1.3%), compared with +75 TWh (+9%) last year when heatwaves drove higher demand. Ember estimates that if weather during May and June 2025 had matched last year’s heatwave conditions, demand growth in India would have been closer to +3%.

Despite the smaller rise, the global demand increase in H1-2025 was close to the 10-year annual average of 2.7% for 2015-2024.

The world’s four largest polluters accounted for 81% of the global demand rise in the first half of 2025: China 54% (198 TWh), the US 21% (76 TWh), India 3.3% (12 TWh) and the EU 2.4% (9 TWh).

1.1.2 Solar and wind outpaced demand growth

Solar and wind generation outpaced the entire growth in electricity demand in the first half of this year. Solar alone met 83% of the increase, setting new records for both growth and generation. Solar’s share of electricity generation rose to 8.8%, up from 6.9% in the first half of 2024.

Among other low-carbon sources, nuclear generation rose by 33 TWh (+2.5%), and other renewables increased by 3.6 TWh (+4.7%). Meanwhile, hydro fell by 42 TWh (-2%), and bioenergy also declined by 2.7 TWh (-1%).

Total fossil generation declined by 27 TWh (-0.3%) as coal fell by 31 TWh (-0.6%) and gas by 6.3 TWh (-0.2%), offsetting a small rise in other fossil fuels (+10 TWh, +2.5%).

Solar generation grew by 306 TWh (+31%) in the first half of 2025, its fastest absolute growth on record. If this pace continues, solar is on track to remain the fastest-growing source of electricity for the 21st consecutive year and to outpace wind growth in absolute terms for the fourth year in a row. 

1.2.1 New solar records across the world

Solar’s global share was 8.8% in the first half of 2025, more than doubling in the last four years, from 3.8% in 2021. In many countries, solar now makes up a considerably higher share of the electricity mix.

Several economies set new records. Among the top 20 largest solar generators in absolute terms, seven countries — Hungary, Greece, the Netherlands, Pakistan, Spain, Australia and Germany — generated 20% or more of their electricity from solar in the first six months of 2025.

Hungary led with nearly 30% share of solar generation, ahead of Greece and the Netherlands, which both surpassed 25%, up from just over 10% only four years ago (in the first half of 2021). Meanwhile, based on Ember’s estimate, Pakistan saw the largest increase in share, from 4.4% in H1-2021 to 21.9% in H1-2025. The increase was driven by the rapid adoption of rooftop solar by households and businesses in response to high electricity prices, as reported previously by Ember.

Based on available monthly data, at least 29 countries generated over 10% of their electricity from solar from January to June 2025, up from 22 countries in the same period of 2024 and only 11 countries in the first half of 2021.

China remained the leader in absolute growth terms for the third consecutive year, accounting for 55% (168 TWh) of the global increase in solar in the first half of 2025. The US accounted for 14% (44 TWh), the EU 12% (37 TWh) and India 6% (17  TWh). In contrast, solar generation fell marginally in Japan by 1.4 TWh (-0.4%), partly due to record-high curtailment. Solar also declined slightly in Vietnam (-0.5 TWh, -1.7%).

1.2.2 Sunnier conditions in H1-2025 slightly improved solar output

Weather conditions had a net-positive effect on solar power output in the first half of 2025. An analysis of solar radiation in 25 countries, covering 91% of global solar generation, shows that conditions alone improved output by 4% compared to the first half of 2024.

European countries were among those benefiting most, with Belgium (+26%), the Netherlands (+21%), the UK (+20%), Germany (+15%) and France (+10%) seeing the larger impacts. However, at a global level, capacity additions remain by far the dominant driver of the increase in solar generation.

1.2.3 Record capacity additions in the first half of 2025 point to a continued rise in solar generation

Solar capacity additions also grew at a record pace, reaching a new high of 380 GW in the first six months of 2025 – 64% more than the 232 GW added in the same period last year. A record surge in May, driven by accelerated installations in China ahead of new pricing rules on 1 June 2025, was a key contributor. Overall, China accounted for 67% of total solar capacity additions in H1-2025.

Record-high capacity additions in H1-2025 are a clear sign that the rapid growth of solar generation will continue beyond the first half of the year and into next year.

Wind generation grew by 7.7%, compared to solar’s 31%. This means solar is close to overtaking wind, with solar generation at 1,303 TWh and wind at 1,365 TWh in the first half of 2025.

Global wind generation increased by 97 TWh (+7.7%) in the first half of 2025, compared to the same period last year when it increased by 106 TWh (+9.1%). This increase led to wind’s share in the global electricity mix rising to 9.2% in H1-2025, up from 8.8% in the same period last year.

Wind generation fell in the EU due to unfavourable weather conditions, especially from January to April. In the US, it also declined in February, April, May and June, but overall grew in H1-2025.

Renewables overtook coal in the electricity mix for the first time on record, rising by 363 TWh (+7.7%) to 5,072 TWh in the first half of 2025. Their share increased to 34.3%, up from 32.7% in the same period last year. Coal fell by 31 TWh (-0.6%) to 4,896 TWh, with its share dropping to 33.1%, down from 34.2%.

At the same time, global gas generation also fell (-6.3 TWh, -0.2%), just maintaining its share of 23% in the global electricity mix. Falls in coal and gas offset a small rise in other fossil fuels (+10 TWh, +2.5%) leading to overall fossil fuel generation falling by 27 TWh (-0.3%).

Coal use and emissions fell in China and India, as wind and solar met all the growth in electricity demand. In the EU, gas and, to a small extent, coal increased their generation to offset falls in hydro, bioenergy and wind generation.

Meanwhile, in the US, coal rose but gas fell due to gas-to-coal switching and because renewable generation did not rise enough to meet demand growth. Detailed changes in the power mixes of those economies are described in Chapter 2.

Hydro generation decreased by 42 TWh (-2%) in the first half of 2025, compared to the same period last year. This led to yet another fall in hydro’s share of the global electricity mix, as it stood at 13.9% in H1-2025, down from 14.6% in the same period last year and from 16.3% in H1-2020.

Hydro generation decreased in a number of economies, with the top five being the EU, China, Russia, Türkiye and Brazil. In the EU (-33 TWh, -17%), hydro was down every month in the first half of the year, with dry conditions increasing towards the summer months.

In China, hydro fell (-11 TWh, -1.9%) after a good generation year in 2024, with drier weather in May and June leading to an overall fall in output. Hydro also fell in Russia (-13 TWh, -12%), Türkiye (-12 TWh, -25%) and Brazil (-10 TWh, -4.4 %), mainly due to droughts.

In contrast, hydro generation increased in Canada (+11 TWh, +6.3%), India (+9.6 TWh, +17%), Viet Nam (+7.9 TWh, +27%), Colombia (+6.3 TWh, +24%), the US (+5.0 TWh, +4.1%) and Norway (+4.2 TWh, +6.1%). It also rose in some other economies, but to a lesser extent.

Nuclear generation globally rose by 33 TWh (+2.5%), maintaining its share of 9.1% in the global electricity mix in H1-2025. The rise came mainly from Asia, with increases in China (+24 TWh, +11%), South Korea (+7.9 TWh, +8.7%), Japan (+5.7 TWh, +14%) and India (+3.5 TWh, +14%). Outside Asia, nuclear generation also rose significantly in Canada (+5.2 TWh, +13%) and France (+4.4 TWh, +2.5%).

In contrast, nuclear power fell in economies such as Taiwan (-5.3 TWh, -62%), the US (-5.2 TWh, -1.4%), Belarus (-2.6 TWh, -28%), Belgium (-2.4 TWh, -16%), Argentina (-1.4 TWh, -21%) and Brazil (-1.2 TWh, -15%).

Further growth is expected as several economies plan to deploy new reactors or extend the operational life of existing ones.

Global CO2 emissions from the power sector fell marginally by 12 MtCO2 (-0.2%) to 6,963 MtCO2 in the first half of 2025. The decline was possible because solar and wind power exceeded demand growth and led to a slight fall in fossil fuel use. Without solar and wind growth, emissions would have risen by an estimated 236 MtCO2 (+3.9%) globally, which is equivalent to almost all emissions (251 MtCO2) from Africa in H1-2025.

At the country level, there was significant variation. Among the four economies that account for the majority of global emissions (64%), emissions fell in China (-46 MtCO2, -1.7%) and India (-24 MtCO2, -3.6%), as clean electricity outpaced growth in demand in those countries.

In contrast, emissions rose in the EU (+13 MtCO2, +4.8%), where strong growth in solar was outweighed by shortfalls in wind, hydro and bioenergy, leading to higher gas and coal generation. Emissions also rose in the US (+33 MtCO2, +4.3%), as clean electricity growth was smaller than demand growth, leading to an increase in coal generation, which was exacerbated by gas-to-coal switching.