Chapter 2:
Tracking progress towards a global tripling of renewables
In this chapter
Over 130 governments pledged at COP28 to triple global renewables capacity to 11 TW by 2030. Since then, global renewables deployment has boomed.
Tripling renewables capacity to at least 11 TW by 2030 is optimal for a 1.5C pathway according to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) models. In December 2023, 133 countries signed a global pledge to triple the world’s installed renewable energy capacity by 2030 — an agreement formally included in the final COP28 text adopted by all 198 parties. This was followed up by the Global Energy Storage and Grids Pledge, signed by 65 countries at COP29 in November 2024. Recent updates by the IEA World Energy Outlook (WEO) in 2024 increase the required 2030 global renewables capacity to 11.5 TW to account for the impacts of rising electricity demand and the fact that more solar than wind has been deployed in the past three years.
2.1
Renewables deployment has boomed since the global tripling agreement
The fast rise in renewables deployment from 2023 to 2025 have put the world ahead of the curve to achieve a tripling.
To achieve a tripling of renewables capacity from 2022, renewables additions needed to rise by 21% every year from 2023 to 2030. However, due to the fast growth discussed in chapter 1, additions have already averaged 29% annually from 2023 to 2025. As a result, additions now only need to rise by 12% per year from 2026 to 2030. Indeed, by the end of 2025 the world will have reached over 5,000 GW of installed renewable capacity.
Renewable capacity additions have exceeded expectations each year putting the world ahead of the curve. That means most of the rise needed in annual additions has already happened earlier than expected and the task now is maintaining the high level of installations of 2025, rather than substantially growing them further.
2.2
Maintaining high deployment levels of 2025 is not guaranteed
Although the recent boom in renewables additions indicate that modest annual growth of just 12% can lead to a global tripling, forecasts suggest this might not be achievable. In reality, renewable additions are more variable and even subject to declines from one year to the next.
The recent IEA Renewables 2025 report forecasts annual additions for 2026 to 2030 in the main case that are below Ember’s 2025 forecast. According to the IEA, the slowdowns are primarily due to policy changes in the US and China. Total global renewables capacity reaches 9,530 GW by 2030 in IEA’s main case, a 15% shortfall from the 11 TW capacity needed for a tripling
Even the IEA accelerated case forecasts additions fall short of the small rises needed to achieve a tripling. Total global renewables capacity reaches 10,400 GW by 2030 in the accelerated case.
2.3
The shortfall is coming from wind and hydro
Most of the forecast shortfalls come primarily from wind and hydro – and because these technologies generate more electricity per unit of capacity than solar – the shortfall in electricity generation is much bigger than the shortfall in capacity.
In the IEA’s latest Renewables 2025 report, solar is on track for the levels needed for a global tripling, consistent with the IEA Net Zero Scenario 2023 Update. However, wind shows a substantial shortfall of 739 GW and hydro a shortfall of 176 GW in the main case.
Wind and hydro generate much more electricity per unit of capacity than solar. The IEA main case has a global capacity factor of 12% for solar, 26% for wind and 34% for hydro.
This means that although the IEA main case forecast is for a 15% shortfall in capacity, it translates to a much bigger 28% shortfall in generation.
Wind and hydro have important roles to play in meeting electricity generation needs associated with the global tripling of capacity. Solar contributes more than half of the 11,000 GW of renewables capacity in the global tripling, while wind only contributes a quarter. But wind has a higher capacity factor than solar, meaning 1 GW of wind on average provides twice as much electricity generation as 1 GW of solar. As a result, although their capacity contributions are different, wind and solar contribute similar amounts to 2030 renewables generation in the IEA NZE Update scenario (31% and 36%, respectively). Practically this means that if wind falls short of the global tripling by 1 GW, then 2 GW of solar must be added to generate the same amount of electricity.
It is also important to note that wind and solar work well together to provide electricity throughout the day, with wind peaking in the morning and evening and solar at midday, as well as seasonally with wind peaking in winter and solar in summer.
