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Methodology

In this report, fossil import dependency is defined as the share of primary energy demand covered by imported fossil fuels. For the EU27, a fuel is counted as imported if it is sourced from a third (non-EU) country.

The cost of fossil imports (chapter 1) is taken from quarterly data provided by Eurostat. The cost of the same imports at pre-crisis prices is calculated by multiplying the same mass of imports by the average price of each fuel in the five years preceding the gas crisis (2016-2020). Average pre-crisis prices are calculated for oil (Brent), gas (Dutch TTF), and coal (Newcastle).

The share of homegrown electricity is calculated as the share of EU electricity generation using fuels sourced from within the EU. This includes all renewables, lignite (brown coal) and a fraction of hard coal and fossil gas estimated to originate from within the EU. For fossil gas, this estimate is performed on a country-by-country basis, using gas flow data provided by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. For hard coal, due to limited trade of hard coal between EU countries, the electricity generation from hard coal in each EU country is multiplied by the ratio of domestic coal production to coal imports. Nuclear power is neither categorised definitively as homegrown or not. This is because the origins of nuclear fuel are more complex. On the one hand, all uranium is mined and processed outside the EU, but significant parts of the nuclear fuel production process occur within the EU. It is also possible to stockpile nuclear fuel to a much greater extent than fossil fuel.

EV electricity demand is estimated using vehicle stock data from the European Alternative Fuels Observatory, vehicle activity data from the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre, and vehicle efficiency data from the European Environment Agency. A typical mileage decay function is used to account for the fact that newer cars are driven further. To estimate the effect this has on EVs, EV fleet age is estimated using vehicle stock data, while overall fleet age data is taken from ACEA. It is assumed that electric motors power 35% of the total driving activity carried out by PHEVs. Oil displacement from EVs is estimated by assuming an EV acts as a replacement for an ICE vehicle of the same vehicle type. It is also assumed that the useful energy required by both vehicles is the same.

Gas displacement due to heat pumps is estimated using Eurostat household energy consumption data, and heat pump stock data supplied by the European Heat Pump Association. It is assumed that the amount of gas displaced by a heat pump is proportional to the share of gas in the household final energy consumption in each member state.

Energy demand is classified as ‘Ready to electrify’ (chapter 3) if an electric technology exists to serve this demand with a Technology Readiness Level (TRL) greater than or equal to 9 according to the IEA’s database. It is not claimed that this technology will be economically feasible in all cases.

Acknowledgement

Contributors

Ember: Euan Graham, Lauren Orso, Frankie Mayo, Hannah Broadbent, Paweł Czyzak, Burcu Ünal Kurban, Kingsmill Bond.

Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air: Panda Rushwood

External Reviewers

Thomas Earl (Transport & Environment)

Header Image

White Electric Vehicle Charging at Public Station in Assen

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