Chapter 1
Africa’s solar boom accelerates into 2026
Chinese solar panel exports into Africa surged in 2026. It is possible to use this to estimate solar installations for full-year 2026. This is happening in almost all African countries, and is enough to meet rising electricity demand.
1.1 Chinese solar panel exports surge
Chinese exports of solar panels to Africa surged to 23 GW in the 12 months to June 2026, a 53% rise on the 12 months to June 2025.
Almost all of this growth was driven by countries outside of South Africa; in 2023, 52% of Africa’s solar imports went to South Africa, and by June 2026 that share had fallen to 20%.
Chinese exports to Africa are now similar to both the Middle East and Latin America. In the 12 months to June 2026, China exported 23 GW to Africa, 23 GW to the Middle East and 25 GW to Latin America.
1.2 Historically, only around 73% of Chinese exports are installed
New global analysis shows how Chinese exports can be used to estimate installations in African countries.
Ember analysed the EU and five other countries over four years, comprising 368 GW of solar installations. All have fairly robust levels of data on annual installations and a fairly strong reliance on Chinese imports, so they can be used to help calibrate African installations from Chinese export data.
Chinese solar imports are a good proxy for installations, but there are two factors that can make them inaccurate predictors of actual deployment. First, panels are not installed at the time of shipping, so we apply a six-month time lag to Chinese exports, which is the approximate time-lag visible in the data, made up of 1-2 months’ shipping time from China, plus 4-5 months to move panels to site and install them. Second, we add three further adjustments to the Chinese data: solar panels imported from countries other than China (calculated from COMTRADE data), re-exports of solar panels, and domestically manufactured solar panels.
The results were that 73% of reported Chinese solar panels have been installed. There is a fairly high range from about 60-90% across years and across countries. 73% represents the total of the countries, weighted by installations, covering the full 368 GW of installations. In total, we consider that 73% is representative to apply to Africa. The box below explains why 73% is potentially even on the conservative side.
Why are “only 73%” of reported Chinese solar panel exports installed?
Ember has been analysing this global trend for years, and we believe it is a combination of four factors.
Chinese export values were likely slightly over-reported prior to April 2026. Chinese companies could claim VAT rebate (13% before December 2024 and 9% to end March 2026), which encourages them to over-report the value of their exports. This cannot be done indiscriminately, and historic literature suggests it could account for 5% over-reporting.
Exports are likely overestimated because solar panel prices fell so aggressively for so long. Chinese customs data reports only the value of solar panels – Ember converts this into megawatt capacity at spot prices. However, in a falling market, the price, which would have been agreed prior to shipping, is likely to have been higher than the spot price, resulting in overestimating the capacity.
Stocking of solar panels. Only 73% of solar panels are installed “so far”. That’s because many are in warehouses. In the EU, solar stocks reached around one year’s installation rate, so this can be significant.
Not all solar installed is reported. The 73% is calibrated against reported installations, not actual installations. Even in the EU and other advanced countries, there’s some evidence that reported data is missing some installations – especially for off-grid uses, which is often explicitly not included.
The 73% is likely to be conservative in the context of estimating solar installations in 2026. Factors 1 and 2 above are now effectively redundant in 2026: the VAT rebate ended from 1st April 2026, and the solar panel prices broadly stopped falling in late 2024. Of course, on factor 4, we are estimating actual not reported installations, so this isn’t relevant. Only factor 3, stocking, is relevant – especially in the context that solar sales are just picking up in Africa, so there is likely a lot of stocking of solar panels happening.
1.3 Africa solar installations rise 45% in 2026
It is possible to estimate solar installations for every country in Africa, using the methodology laid out in section 1.2 above. Furthermore, it’s possible to do this already for the full year 2026, because Chinese export data is already available until June 2026 and there’s a six-month delay to installations. The full calculations by country are available to download as an Excel file.
Ember estimates 17 GW of solar will be installed across Africa in full-year 2026. This is a 45% rise, following a 51% rise in 2025 and a 25% rise in 2024. That is an installation rate of 47 MW – around 100,000 solar panels – every day during 2026.
6% of solar panels installed were manufactured domestically, across a number of smaller plants in South Africa, Nigeria, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia and Kenya. The remaining 94% were imported from China. In previous years, a small proportion were imported from outside of China – in India and South Korea – but these are now more profitable to sell into the US.
There is likely little re-export of solar panels from Africa so far. Although the US is reporting large imports of solar panels from some African countries, the data suggests this is likely Chinese solar cells and wafers rather than panels. There are re-exports of Chinese panels to other African countries, which we explore in chapter 1.4. There are also exports of domestically produced solar panels to the US, which we explore in chapter 3.
1.4 Solar is growing in all African countries
The solar boom is happening everywhere. 36 out of Africa’s 54 countries are expected to install record amounts of solar in 2026.
19 countries have seen year-on-year growth of over 100%, including 544% in the DRC, 282% in Zimbabwe, 176% in Egypt and 117% in Zambia.
Six countries are now gigawatt markets – we estimate South Africa will install 3.3 GW in 2026, 2.0 GW in Egypt, 1.7 GW in Nigeria, 1.7 GW in the DRC, 1.4 GW in Algeria, and 1.0 GW in Morocco.
One caveat – it may be that solar installations in some landlocked countries are underestimated, and the coastal countries overestimated. Ember’s analysis takes into account COMTRADE trade flows – e.g. Kenya into Uganda, and South Africa into Zimbabwe. However, that data is out of date, and in some cases isn’t reported at all.
Solar is now the single biggest addition to grid capacity in many African countries. Ten countries will each add at least 1 GW of solar between 2023 and 2026. Senegal will add the equivalent of almost 80% of its entire 2023 grid capacity, with DRC and Kenya adding more than half – while Egypt and Algeria, with two of the continent’s largest grids, will add less than a tenth. The most dramatic expansions are in the countries with the smallest grid capacity, where solar additions will match or exceed their entire existing national grid.
1.5 Solar could meet all of Africa’s electricity demand growth in 2026
Solar growth is enough to meet electricity demand growth in many countries and is helping to reduce diesel demand. And now that battery investment is stepping up, this growth could ultimately reduce the burden on the grid rather than increase it.
Half of African countries will see solar generation grow more than overall electricity demand
The scale of solar build in 2026 is roughly enough to meet Africa’s historic electricity demand growth.
The 17 GW of solar installed in 2026 would add 23 TWh of generation a year, assuming a conservative 15% capacity factor – equal to 2.3% of Africa’s annual electricity generation of 982 TWh in 2024. This is slightly more than the historic rise in electricity demand, which averaged 2.2% per year from 2014 to 2024.
In over half the countries in Africa – 28 out of 54 – the rise in solar generation will exceed the historic demand growth.
It is the countries with the smallest electricity systems that will see the biggest impact. There are ten countries where 2026’s new solar will add more than 10% to annual grid electricity generation – Sierra Leone (97%), Togo (24%), Somalia (21%), Djibouti (21%), DRC (14%), Comoros (14%), Namibia (12%), Liberia (12%), Chad (11%), Lesotho (10%). Together these countries are home to 190 million people.
Ironically, the two countries with the most new solar in 2026 – South Africa and Egypt – see their solar generation share increase below average, because they are also the two countries with by far the largest electricity systems. 2026’s new solar will add only 1.8% to South Africa’s electricity generation and 1.0% in Egypt’s, compared to the 2.3% African average.
Will solar actually increase electricity demand in Africa?
Electricity demand growth in Africa is low. It averaged 2.2% per year from 2014 to 2024, which is lower even than the global rate of 2.6%.
Solar has helped Pakistan to leapfrog to higher electricity demand growth, after years of paltry growth. In Pakistan, total electricity demand rose by 21% in just two years from 2023 to 2025, met entirely by the newly installed distributed solar generation.
But what’s more, Ember’s research showed this solar actually helped Pakistan’s electricity demand to rise – creating huge societal benefits.
Distributed solar was faster: in just two years, 27 GW of distributed solar was installed, equivalent to the capacity of all operating coal, gas and oil plants ever built in Pakistan. Distributed solar was cheaper – residential solar with a medium battery produces electricity at around PKR 20 per kWh, half the PKR 40 cost of grid electricity – air conditioning at grid prices is just unaffordable for many. Distributed solar was better – it eliminated daytime loadshedding, avoided more than $12 billion USD in oil and gas imports by February 2026, reduced CO2 and air pollution and saved transmission and distribution losses.
Like in Pakistan, many African countries have low electricity demand because of low electricity supply. Solar can help to drive the electricity demand growth that African countries need.
Solar is up-ending Africa’s diesel market, saving billions in diesel imports
The US-Iran conflict and the removal of subsidies in some countries, including Nigeria and Egypt, have led to a sharp rise in retail diesel prices. The economics before were compelling; now they are urgent.
Diesel generators are commonplace across the many countries in Africa which face unreliable electricity supply. A 2022 report from WoodMac showed at least 17 African countries have more distributed diesel generator capacity than they do grid-connected power-generation capacity.
Solar is undoubtedly being installed by people who own a diesel generator, to save money buying diesel. There is also a large amount of off-grid diesel that will be replaced with solar. Irrigation might be the biggest. In Pakistan, there is already an estimated 7 GW of solar tube wells providing irrigation – Morocco already had 40,000 solar irrigation pumps by 2020, and Egypt likely has a lot more. The use of solar to replace diesel generation at smaller, rich off-grid houses or tourist hotels is likely to have grown rapidly. Also, one company alone in Nigeria added 60 MW of solar to power phone masts.
This reduces imports – the import cost of a Chinese solar panel is a fraction of what the import cost of diesel would be for diesel generators. Generating the same electricity from a diesel generator as from a solar panel would cost as much in diesel, every three months, as the solar panel itself. Yet solar panels last for 30 years or more, saving significant costs on constant diesel top-ups.
The Chinese solar panel exports into Africa in the 12 months to June 2026 cost $2.4 billion USD, according to the Chinese customs agency; at $1.40 USD per litre of diesel, generating the same amount of electricity as those imported solar panels would need $2.4 billion USD of diesel every three months. So, in the hypothetical extreme scenario that all solar is displacing diesel generators, Chinese solar panels would save $2.4 billion USD on imports every three months, having paid for themselves in the first three months.
Africa already imports more dollars of batteries than solar panels
Since 2024, Africa has imported more dollars of batteries than solar panels from China. In the last two years, the value of solar panel exports doubled, but battery exports quadrupled.
The largest markets are Nigeria and DRC, where battery imports far exceed solar imports. In Nigeria, it’s likely that the batteries are purchased by households and businesses to provide electricity in loadshedding hours to replace buying diesel for generators. In the DRC many of the battery imports are linked to 24-hour solar+storage schemes at copper mines to replace diesel.
In most other markets, battery imports are less than solar. Egypt and Algeria have large utility-scale solar farms that aren’t yet installing a lot of batteries alongside, so all of that output is confined to daylight hours.
Batteries and solar will enable African countries to leapfrog to a new distributed grid, skipping the need to build a large national grid. The majority of electricity generation can be where it is used, day and night – either on rooftops directly, or embedded in megawatt scale (instead of gigawatt scale) in the local grid. Only a small grid is then needed to help balance supply and demand.
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