Grid connection capacity challenges in Türkiye and worldwide

Increasing connection demand is not being met

Over a 15-month period, 65% of the capacity applying for grid connection at the transmission level in Türkiye was unable to secure approval, while globally, the capacity awaiting grid connection has reached 1.65 TW.

The adequacy, reliability, and security of Türkiye’s electricity grid are the responsibility of the Turkish Electricity Transmission Corporation (TEİAŞ). TEİAŞ announces the regional capacity available for connection to the transmission and distribution grids, based on planning studies and identified needs. If there is no available connection capacity in a region, new power plant applications are rejected.

In a decision by the Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EMRA) at its meeting on 8 February 2024, a total of 7.5 GW of capacity was allocated for the grid connection of unlicensed power plants. According to the breakdown published by TEİAŞ, half of this capacity was reserved for transmission-level connections, and the other half for distribution-level connections.

Of the 3.5 GW allocated for transmission-level connections, 96% was distributed within just two months, and as of September 2024, no new capacity was left to be distributed. Since September 2024, no new transmission-level capacity announcements have been made. As a result, connection applications at the transmission level have been rejected since September 2024. Between February 2024 and April 2025—a 15-month period—65% (7.5 GW) of the total 11.6 GW of unlicensed project applications were rejected due to regional capacity constraints. The 7.5 GW of unauthorised capacity is almost a third of the total solar capacity installed by May 2025 (22.5 GW).

The investment costs required for new grid infrastructure are among the main barriers to increasing capacity allocations. According to TEİAŞ’s 2024–2028 Strategic Plan, 74% of the total 362 billion TL budget planned for the five-year period will be allocated to the renewal and development of the electricity grid.

According to the analysis conducted by TEİAŞ and published in its Strategic Plan to assess external factors that may affect its operations and strategic decisions, economic factors have been identified as the second most important element likely to impact the organisation in the future, after technological factors. A closer look reveals that economic risks—such as exchange rate fluctuations and high inflation, which vary depending on domestic and international developments—pose significant challenges to achieving targets by affecting contracts with contractors.

The issue of insufficient capacity for grid connection is not only a challenge for Türkiye, but also a common problem faced by many countries. As of July 2024, the total capacity of wind, solar, and hydroelectric projects in the final evaluation stage awaiting connection approval reached 1.65 TW worldwide, marking a 10% increase compared to 2023. This is equivalent to 38% of the current global total installed capacity for these three energy sources. In Europe alone, 0.5 TW of wind capacity is awaiting connection approval across 10 European countries, including ones where wind power exceeds 10 GW in installed capacity such as Germany, Spain, and France. 

Declining renewable energy investment costs and incentives provided by countries in line with their decarbonisation targets have led to a significant increase in renewable power plant projects. However, the development of grid infrastructure is insufficient to meet this rapid increase. For example, in Europe, it can take up to 9 years for a wind farm project to obtain a connection permit. In the UK, the average waiting time for a project to obtain a connection permit is 5.5 years, but in some cases it can be as long as 15 years.

Implementation of new infrastructure investments to enable the connection of power plants is time-consuming due to high costs, procurement issues and lack of skilled labour. Construction time for high voltage projects can range from 5 to 13 years, depending on the region, technology and targeted capacity. At lower voltage levels, this period can be reduced to 4 to 8 years. Investments at the distribution level can usually be completed within 4 years.

Technical assumptions used in grid planning can also negatively affect the process. System operators plan the grid by taking into account high-risk conditions and unrealistic situations, and act on the assumption that resources with variable generation profiles, especially wind and solar, will produce at maximum capacity for long periods of time. This cautious approach leads to an underestimation of the grid connection capacity, leading to an increase in the number and capacity of power plants waiting for connection.

Data deficiencies are failing to guide investors effectively. Throughout Europe, investors have very limited access to current and detailed data that would show where adequate capacity is available for grid connection. This lack of information makes it difficult for investors to select the right locations and develop projects that will avoid grid connection issues. Denmark’s system operator, Energinet, has developed excellent tools to improve visibility and help address this issue.

Along with technical obstacles, procedural shortcomings are also slowing the process. In the evaluation process, the inclusion of projects with a low probability of realisation prolongs the evaluation period for projects with a high realisation potential. To avoid this problem, countries such as France, Greece and Romania have tightened the application criteria. In order to apply, projects are required to complete certain permitting and procedural steps determined by the institutions.

Another method is to prevent speculative projects from applying by increasing financial obligations. While Romania and the UK impose an application fee for projects, in countries such as Greece, Spain, Italy and Romania, system operators require bank guarantees from projects applying for connection. If authorised projects do not connect, they forfeit some or all of their collateral and lose their connection authorisation.

The application systems in Türkiye and Europe differ. In Türkiye, for projects to be considered for evaluation, applications must meet the conditions and timeline set by the Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EMRA). In most of Europe, however, investors can apply at any time and be included in the evaluation process. Furthermore, in many European countries, the principle of “first come, first evaluated” applies. However, this system allows speculative projects with a low probability of success to be included, which extends the evaluation time for projects that could be connected to the grid and slows down the pace of energy transition.

It is clear that grid connection challenges are not unique to Türkiye, and for all countries there is much to learn from how other countries have failed and succeeded in tackling bottlenecks. Enhancing data transparency to enable realistic projections, along with improved application processes that prioritise high-probability projects, will help accelerate the energy transition.