Hybrid solar potential in Türkiye

Hybrid plants can make solar the largest source of installed capacity in Türkiye

Even under the most conservative assumptions, the potential of hybrid solar power plants is nearly 8 GW—almost matching the capacity of Türkiye’s existing run-of-river hydroelectric plants. If economic conditions improve, this potential could increase to as much as 25 GW.

According to the analysis of hybrid solar potential conducted for privately owned wind and hydroelectric power plants, the total hybrid solar potential at these sites is 8 GW under current economic conditions (see Methodology). This potential is more than twice the total installed capacity of Türkiye’s geothermal and biomass power plants combined and is almost equal to the installed capacity of run-of-river hydroelectric plants (8.4 GW). As of May 2025, Türkiye’s installed solar capacity stands at 22.5 GW. If the 8 GW hybrid solar potential is realised, total installed solar capacity could surpass 30 GW—making solar by far the largest energy source by installed capacity in Türkiye.

Due to higher solar potential in regions in Türkiye with dammed hydroelectric power plants compared to areas with high wind power regions, 46% of Türkiye’s potential hybrid solar capacity is in dammed hydroelectric power plants. Geographical and meteorological factors at power plant locations significantly influence how much additional solar capacity they can accommodate through hybridisation. 

The total capacity of the power plants included in the analysis of hybrid potential accounts for 24% of Türkiye’s total installed capacity (29.1 GW). Dammed hydro accounts for nearly 32% of the capacity assessed, while wind accounts for 41%.

More than half of Türkiye’s dammed hydroelectric power plants are located in the Mediterranean and Eastern Anatolia regions, where solar potential is high. As a result, 46% (3.6 GW) of the total 8 GW hybrid solar potential is associated with these plants. In contrast, 45% of wind power plants are located in the Marmara region, where wind potential is high but solar potential is relatively low. This situation leads to a lower hybrid solar potential at wind power plants—despite the total installed capacity of the analysed wind plants being 12 GW and dammed hydro plants being 9.2 GW. The hybrid solar potential at wind plants is 1.4 GW less than at dammed hydro plants.

Precipitation is the most important factor affecting the performance of hydroelectric power plants. According to water inflow data published by TEİAŞ, in 2021, one of the driest years in history, main basin dams received 32% less water than in the last six years. In addition to the monthly water amount, TEİAŞ also publishes the long-term average amount of water received by the basin dams in the past years. It shows that the amount of water received by basin dams in the last six years is 19% less than the long-term average. In 2021, the amount of water received by basin dams was 44% less than the long-term average.

Compared to 2020, the 33% drop in water inflows into dams caused the capacity factor of run-of-river hydro plants to decrease by 8.6 percentage points and the capacity factor of dammed hydro plants to decrease by 10.6 percentage points in 2021. As a result, the share of hydroelectric power in total electricity generation fell by 9 percentage points compared to the previous year.

If Türkiye had deployed 8 GW of hybrid solar capacity by 2024, the country’s electricity generation mix could have shifted. Analysis shows that these hybrid plants could have generated approximately 12 TWh of electricity, equivalent to 46% of Türkiye’s total solar electricity generation in 2024. With this additional generation, wind and solar together would have accounted for 21.6% of total production, placing them among the top sources, and just behind imported coal (21.8%).

In a scenario where the economic parameters used in the hybrid potential analysis are more optimistic, the total hybrid solar potential exceeds 25 GW. The 8 GW scenario is considered the baseline. In this baseline scenario, it is assumed that the entire investment required for hybrid solar power plants is financed through loans. The baseline scenario is based on the following assumptions: a 9% interest rate in US dollars, a 10-year payback period, and an average electricity sales price of 68 USD/MWh (see: Methodology). However, project-specific factors—such as the use of equity financing or access to lower-interest loans, which may vary from investor to investor—can significantly impact investment costs and, in turn, the amount of solar capacity that can be repaid within 10 years.

According to data from the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye, dollar loan interest rates, which had fallen to around 4% in 2022, rose to 8.3% over a three-year period. A sensitivity analysis conducted using three-year data shows that, with all other factors held constant, in a 4% interest rate scenario the potential for hybrid solar capacity more than three times compared to the 9% base scenario, reaching 25.6 GW—thus surpassing the current installed fossil gas capacity (24.6 GW).