Türkiye can bypass grid constraints with hybrid solar power plants

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EN Türkiye can bypass grid constraints with hybrid solar power plants

Methodology

Generation data for plants

Installed capacities, hourly generation data, and location (province) information for wind, reservoir, and run-of-river hydro plants were obtained and matched using the EMRA License Inquiry Database and the EPİAŞ Transparency Platform API service.

For wind plants, 2024 generation data was used, while for hydroelectric plants, generation data from 2018 to 2024 was analysed to reflect the possible effects of drought. The seven-year average of hourly generation data was used to create an annual generation value, which served as representative data for the remaining three years.

In all three resource types, plants with fewer than 6,000 hourly data points in a year were excluded from the analysis.

According to the EMRA license database, the number of power plants with hybrid solar plant licences is 309. However, 25 plants with hybrid solar generation greater than zero are included in the analysis to calculate their performance.

Solar generation estimation

Hourly capacity factors were calculated based on 2024 solar generation and installed capacity data. Province-level Solar Energy Potential coefficients, available in Ember’s data tools, were applied to the calculated hourly capacity factors according to the location of each plant.

In cases where the combined output of the solar plant and the main source exceeded the installed capacity of the main source, the excess generation was treated as free (non-compensated) sales and excluded from revenue calculations.

Financial assumptions

It was assumed that the hybrid investment would achieve payback within 10 years. It was also assumed that the entire investment would be financed through loans. As of April 2025, the credit interest rate was set at 9%, based on the sum of the 10-year US Treasury bond rate and Türkiye’s 10-year CDS premium, with an additional 0.5 percentage points added to reflect private sector risk.

The 2024 Market Clearing Price in USD was used as the assumed electricity sale price.

Additionally, an investment cost of USD 550,000 per MW was calculated for solar installations, factoring in potential additional costs arising from land conditions.

Acknowledgements

Contributors

Thanks to Ufuk Alparslan for contributing to the methodology for the potential analysis and reviewing the report; Burcu Ünal Kurban for reviewing the Turkish version of the report; Hannah Broadbent and Sachin Sreejith for reviewing the English translation; Lauren Orso for preparing the data visualisations.