US gas and clean generation growth meets rising demand more than it replaces coal

Gas generation rose 3.3% in 2024, similar to the average of the last ten years. However, the increase was mostly to meet electricity demand growth, which is a change from recent history, where gas increased to replace coal. Solar and wind growth slowed the growth of gas, which would have needed to grow by 9% to meet demand without them. 

In 2024, states with the highest rise in gas generation also saw the highest electricity demand rise. Rising clean electricity generation slowed gas generation in many states. Only California and Georgia saw large enough growth in clean generation to create a significant fall in gas generation.

Gas and clean growth met rising electricity demand rather than replacing coal

US gas generation rose by 3.3% (+59 TWh) in 2024, a significant increase, though similar to the average growth of the previous ten years (+68 TWh). 

What was different in 2024, is that the increase in gas, solar and wind was more to meet rising demand and less to replace coal. Demand rose by 128 TWh and coal fell by 22 TWh – the 150 TWh shortfall was met by gas, solar and wind. This also means that 85% of the total growth in gas, solar and wind met rising electricity demand and just 15% replaced coal generation, resulting in the second smallest fall in coal generation since 2014.

This is a significant shift from the previous ten years from 2013 to 2023 when only 15% of the increase in gas, wind and solar met electricity demand growth, while 85% met the fall in coal generation.

Solar and wind growth was critical to cushioning faster rises in gas generation last year. If gas alone had met the rise in electricity demand and fall in coal generation in 2024, it could have risen by 9%, more than twice as fast as it did. 

Despite the rise in gas generation, its capacity increased by only 2 GW in 2024, the lowest level since 2000. By comparison, energy storage added a record 10 GW of new utility-scale capacity in 2024, marking a significant shift in investment from gas power plants to battery-backed renewables. 

Gas rising with electricity demand is evident at a state level

The states with the biggest rises in gas generation in 2024 were those with the highest rise in electricity demand growth.

In the states with the highest rise in gas generation, electricity demand grew more than the decline in coal generation. Virginia saw the largest rise in gas generation (and coal generation even rose slightly). This establishes a clear – and perhaps obvious link that rising electricity demand is leading to rising gas generation.

32 states saw a rise in both gas generation and clean generation. In Virginia, gas made up 87% of the total increase in generation. In other states, clean sources played a bigger role and gas, a smaller role. In Texas, gas accounted for less than half (47%) of the total generation rise, and in Arizona, Connecticut and Colorado, it was only a third. 

California saw the largest fall in gas generation as clean electricity rose more than electricity demand.