Record coal generation share in Indonesia and the Philippines surpasses Poland and China

Indonesia overtook Poland in terms of coal’s share of generation in 2023, having reached 61.8% in 2023. Indonesia had already overtaken China’s coal share in 2022. The Phillipines rose from 59.1% coal in 2022 to 61.9% in 2023, overtaking both China and Poland in 2023 for the first time.

With coal powering most of the electricity in Indonesia and the Philippines, compared to less than half in ASEAN, renewables are not keeping up with rising power demand. Solar and wind only generated 0.3% and 3.2% of total electricity production in 2023 in Indonesia and the Philippines, respectively, falling behind the ASEAN average of 4.4% and regional leader Viet Nam at 13%.

Even in China and Poland, which have historically relied on coal, strong growth in solar and wind power is continuously reducing coal’s share. In China, electricity demand rose by 6.9%, and nearly half of the demand rise was met by solar and wind. Meanwhile, Poland saw a drop in electricity demand by 5%, but wind and solar power surged by 26%, resulting in a sharp decrease in coal generation (-17%).

Indonesia and the Philippines are the world’s top 20 coal generators

In Indonesia, electricity demand rose by 5.1% in 2023; two-thirds of which was met by coal (67%), with the remaining third met mostly by gas (31%). As solar and wind growth lags, increasing reliance on coal has made Indonesia the fifth largest coal power generating country in the world, up from eleventh place in 2015.

As for the Philippines, coal generation grew much higher than the rise in electricity demand (9.7% vs. 4.6%). Its absolute coal generation ranks 17th in the world, but it is placed 8th in terms of generation shares.

Solar and wind power remains largely untapped

Despite the rising coal generation and sluggish renewables growth, Indonesia and the Philippines still have the opportunity to tap into its large solar and wind potential.

The Philippines’ current plan as well as Indonesia’s Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) recommendations in its Comprehensive Investment and Policy Plan see renewables powering 35% of electricity in the Philippines and 44% in Indonesia by 2030. Notably, the IEA in its Net Zero Emissions scenario set the global target of 60% renewable electricity by 2030.

As solar and wind power are quickly deployable and cheap sources of electricity, “Indonesia and the Philippines could instead accelerate their development to meet the rising power demand, thereby moving closer to their net zero targets”, says Kostantsa Rangelova, Ember’s Global Electricity Analyst.