Clean Break꞉ EU can build nearly twice as many wind turbines and EVs as it needs each year

In the first two months of the US-Israel war with Iran, fossil fuel price spikes cost Europe an additional €18.5 billion. Despite this vulnerability, electrification offers Europe a path away from this vulnerability. European manufacturers can already produce twice as many wind turbines and electric vehicles as the continent deploys each year, and triple the number of heat pumps.

Ember’s new report, “A clean break: leaving fossil volatility for clean tech security“, published today, finds that Europe’s clean tech manufacturing base is far stronger than commonly assumed and that even where imports are unavoidable, they carry fundamentally lower risks than the fossil fuels they replace.

Fossil fuel imports cost EU €1.8 trillion in four years

Europe’s dependence on fossil fuels remains a significant vulnerability. With 85% of its fossil fuel supply imported from outside the bloc, the continent’s energy costs and economic stability are directly tied to markets it cannot control. Between 2021 and 2024, fossil fuel imports cost the EU €1.8 trillion. The analysis shows that this exposure is not inevitable: in 2025 alone, electric vehicles in Europe avoided 67 million barrels of oil consumption, saving €4.1 billion in import costs.

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European clean tech exports topped €30 billion in 2025

The report finds that European manufacturers can already meet domestic demand for wind turbines, electric vehicles and heat pumps. Annual production capacity stands at 30 GW for wind turbines against 14 GW installed in 2025, 4.6 million EVs against demand of 2.6 million, and 7.5 million heat pumps at nearly three times current demand.

Europe’s wind sector is home to some of the world’s largest manufacturers — Germany-based Siemens Gamesa was the largest supplier of offshore wind turbines across all global markets in 2025. In 2025, European exports of wind turbines and EVs were worth just over €30 billion. The clean tech manufacturing industry already employs around 1.8 million people across the continent, according to the report this figure could reach 2.3 million by 2030.

Solar panels offer 20 years of power from a single shipment

Where Europe does rely on imports — solar panels, battery electrodes, permanent magnets — the report argues the dependency is structurally different from fossil fuels. A single shipment of solar panels generates as much electricity as one LNG tanker, but unlike LNG, the panels keep producing power for over 20 years without any further imports. Fossil fuels must be imported continuously; any disruption immediately hits consumers. Clean tech, once installed, keeps generating energy even if supply chains are disrupted.

The US-Israel war with Iran has once again exposed how vulnerable Europe remains to events beyond its control. But the data offers a more encouraging picture. Europe already has a strong clean tech manufacturing base, and where imports are needed, the risks are fundamentally different than in the case of fossil fuels. A solar panel is imported once and generates domestic electricity for decades; fossil fuels require continuous imports, and any disruption immediately puts the lights out. Electrification is not a trade-off between security and affordability — it is the path to both. The tools and the manufacturing base are already there, what’s needed now is policy that moves as fast as the technology.

Tom Harrison
‍Energy Analyst, Ember

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Ember is an independent energy think tank that aims to accelerate the clean energy transition with data and policy. It creates targeted data insights to advance policies that urgently shift the world to a clean, electrified energy future.

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Clean Break: EU can build nearly twice as many wind turbines and EVs as it needs each year