Clean technologies are set to limit use of gas generation in EU grid balancing

Brussels, 24 June 2026 – The EU’s battery fleet is expected to grow from 37 GW in 2025 to 178 GW by 2030, according to a new Ember report. This fourfold increase, together with smart use of EV charging and heat pumps, could significantly reduce the need for gas in grid balancing and help the EU absorb far more wind and solar power.

“Batteries and smart use of the growing fleet of electric vehicles and heat pumps will become a real alternative to gas for balancing the grid. Batteries are expected to scale fast, storing more renewable power and delivering it in the evening, while AI-enabled automation of EV charging and heat pumps can help shift electricity demand to hours when renewables are abundant,” said Beatrice Petrovich, senior analyst at Ember.

Utility-scale systems drive battery capacity growth

Utility-scale batteries show the greatest growth potential, expanding across the EU both in absolute terms and relative to wind and solar capacity. At the end of 2025, the EU had about 3 GW of utility-scale battery storage for every 100 GW of wind and solar, equivalent to a 3% ratio. By 2030, this ratio is set to rise to 12%. By then, utility-scale batteries could also provide short-term flexibility at around 20% lower cost than new gas-fired power plants.

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Behind-the-meter batteries maximise rooftop solar use

Behind-the-meter batteries, such as those installed in homes and non-residential buildings, are also expected to grow, doubling by 2030. In 2025, these batteries could shift an estimated 9% of daily rooftop solar generation from peak solar hours to the evening. This share is projected to rise to 17% by 2030.

“Batteries offer a cheaper alternative to regular gas backup and reduce strain on the grid. By 2030, they are expected to play a much larger role in short-term grid balancing in the EU, with discharge capacity exceeding 80% of gas plants’ hourly output, up from about 20% in 2025,” said Petrovich.

Consumer flexibility can reduce peak grid demand

The report also finds that one in six EU cars could be electric by 2030, with half of those able to shift charging to periods of high renewables output and lower power prices. Around one in five EU households could have a heat pump by then, with 15% of heat pump electricity consumption able to be shifted to sunny and windy hours without affecting user comfort. Together, these trends could reduce peak demand, ease grid bottlenecks and cut the need for fossil backup.

In January 2027, all EU countries are expected, for the first time, to release their national objectives for storage and demand flexibility. If paired with the removal of barriers to deploying batteries and demand-side flexibility, ambitious targets could accelerate the rollout of alternatives to fossil-based grid balancing.

Technologies are ready and the direction of travel is set, but policy will decide how fast they scale. Stable regulation, rewards for consumers’ flexibility and faster rollout of smart meters will be needed to unlock the full system benefit. Scaling these clean flexibility solutions fast enough avoids locking in oversized costly fossil backup.

Beatrice Petrovich
‍Senior Analyst, Ember

About Ember

Ember is an independent energy think tank that aims to accelerate the clean energy transition with data and policy. It creates targeted data insights to advance policies that urgently shift the world to a clean, electrified energy future.

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