Australia’s coal mining emissions paradox
Fugitive emissions from Australia’s coal industry dropped to a record low despite production doubling, a paradox due to unreported coal mine methane emissions.
27 Mar 2025
Chris Wright
Climate Strategy Advisor
Ember
Climate Strategy Advisor
Ember
Table of Contents
Executive summary
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Conclusion
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Supporting materials
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Highlights
170%
Increase in coal production between 1990 and 2022
0.17%
The increase in fugitive emissions between 1990 and 2022
2-3x
Surface coal mining production has grown at twice the rate of fugitive emissions since 1990
Executive Summary
Rising Coal Production, Falling Emissions
The reduction in Australia’s coal mine fugitive emissions is one of the key sectoral success stories of Australia’s efforts to tackle climate change. However, a longer-term look at the coal industry reveals a more complex picture. This report outlines three critical components in this short history of Australia’s coal mine emissions.
The age and safety related closure of gassier underground coal mines has inadvertently led to significant emissions reductions over the last three decades. In contrast, the corresponding growth in open-cut mining means that more of Australia’s coal emissions are now estimated (rather than directly monitored) than ever before. What’s more, changes to estimation approaches for surface coal mining mean that more of Australia’s coal mining emissions have shifted from state-led regulatory averages, to non-verified individualised estimates, corresponding with a significant decrease in reported emissions.
01
170% increased coal production
Between 1990 and 2022, Australia’s coal production has increased by 170%, largely due to the significant expansion of open-cut mining, growing from 201 – 542 million tonnes.
02
0.17% increased fugitive emissions
Despite significant coal production growth, coal mine fugitive emissions have increased by 0.17 per cent between 1990 and 2022, while the emissions intensity of the coal sector has decreased by 63 per cent.
03
2-3x faster than the rate of emissions
Between 1990 and 2022, open-cut coal mining grew at twice the pace as reported fugitive emissions. Since 2005, the growth rate gap between production and emissions reporting has widened to more than three times greater.
Government reported data indicates that Australia’s coal industry has made progress in reducing emissions, but whether or not this reflects a sustainable trend is far from clear.
Currently there are a number of gassy, underground coal mines seeking to extend or expand their production that could seriously undermine this reporting trend. Furthermore, with the compulsory shift toward site-specific open-cut emissions reporting, this report should act as a catalyst for holistic regulatory review, and the integration of diverse emissions verification technologies.
Australia’s coal industry has seen an involuntary drop in emissions over the past few years, but a number of key trends suggest that the industry is far more exposed to risk, and farther away from a sustainable transition than ever before.
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