Ember’s response to the public consultation on European Resource Adequacy Assessment

Background

The European Resource Adequacy Assessment (ERAA) plays a central role in the planning of the European power system. This pan-european exercise evaluates the security of power supply up to ten years ahead and guides policy-makers in their decisions about capacity markets. It will also form a key element in the upcoming national flexibility needs assessments.

Ember’s full response can be downloaded here, and the key messages are summarised below.

• Proposed fossil fuel prices for ERAA 2025 are significantly lower than futures prices and European Commission price projections. This risks the ERAA’s dispatch and investment outputs not reflecting the most cost optimal actions.
• The potential of batteries and demand side flexibility (DSF) is underestimated by ERAA preliminary values, compared to current market trends. This divergence is most significant for DSF; moreover, the demand shifting potential from EVs and heat pumps by 2030 is assumed to be zero for the majority of EU countries.
• Default values of CAPEX for battery storage fail to reflect recent cost reductions and remain flat over the rest of this decade. It is important that costs reflect realistic market developments and future efficiency gains.
• There are a number of cases where wind and solar generation capacities are lower than both policy targets and market outlooks from WindEurope and SolarPower Europe. Ember strongly suggests these are revised to better align with the medium-term outlooks. 

Supporting materials

Downloads

Download Ember’s response here:

Detail of inquiry

ERAA 2025 Call-for-Evidence on Preliminary Input Data – Opened 31 March 2025 and closed on 22 April 2025. The purpose of the consultation was to gather evidence-based feedback from stakeholders and industry experts on the ERAA 2025 scenarios.

Link to consultation: https://consultations.entsoe.eu/system-development/eraa2025-call-for-evidence-preliminary-data/