Global CMM emissions remain steady despite rising coal production

Global coal mine methane emissions have not decreased since the inception of the Global Methane Pledge in 2021, based on Ember analysis. However, in 2023, six of the world’s nine largest emitters submitted no official CMM data to the UNFCCC. This lack of reporting means the scale of national CMM emissions remains poorly understood. As a result, tracking progress towards 1.5C pathways and assessing delivery against the Global Methane Pledge is more difficult.

Methane is a short-lived greenhouse gas that traps roughly 80 times more heat per tonne than carbon dioxide over the first 20 years, making it a key driver of near‑term warming. Coal mining is estimated to account for around 33% of total fossil fuel-related methane emissions.

The 2021 Global Methane Pledge (GMP) commits 159 signatory countries to collectively cut annual anthropogenic methane emissions by at least 30% by 2030 compared to 2020 levels. This is equivalent to roughly 100 million tonnes of methane.

According to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Global Methane Status Report, global anthropogenic methane emissions were about 352 million tonnes in 2020. Under current legislation, they are projected to rise to around 369 million tonnes in 2030, a 5% increase compared to 2020. This would put the world off course from meeting the GMP goal and from pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5C.

Turning global climate goals into real progress requires focusing on sources where action is practical and effective. Coal mine methane (CMM) is a manageable source, as it is released from known locations during routine mining activities and from closed mines. Experience from many countries shows that this methane can be captured and used or destroyed using proven and widely available methods.

Since the Global Methane Pledge was launched in 2021, coal production has increased and associated methane emissions have remained steady, pushing the world further away from the pledge’s targets.

Global coal production has risen 8% since 2021

Coal demand has continued to grow despite global climate commitments. Data from the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicate that global coal production has risen since the inception of the Global Methane Pledge, increasing from 8,100 million tonnes in 2021 to over 8,650 million tonnes in 2023. The majority of this coal (88%) is thermal coal used for power generation, while 12% is metallurgical coal used for iron production.

No shift in CMM emissions since the Global Methane Pledge in 2021

Countries report their estimated CMM emissions through national greenhouse gas submissions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). As many countries do not report annually, Ember has filled gaps in this data to construct a continuous national and global CMM emissions timeline (see the full methodology for details).

This UNFCCC-derived data show that global CMM emissions have remained broadly steady. Global emissions reached 34.7 million tonnes in 2023, the most recent year countries reported their greenhouse gas emissions to the UNFCCC. This is 0.6% higher (+0.2 million tonnes) than in 2021.

Notably, this increase is less than an eighth of the rate at which coal production grew over the same period, indicating that reported methane emission factors have declined on average, a trend explored further in Section 1.3.

Seven countries account for nearly all CMM emissions

Most CMM comes from a handful of major coal producers. Our UNFCCC-derived data show that almost all (94%) of CMM emissions originate from just seven countries: China, the United States, Russia, India, Australia, Poland and Ukraine.

China alone accounted for 76% of global CMM emissions in 2023 and around half of global coal production.

Independent global datasets consistently indicate that actual CMM emissions differ from what governments officially report to the UNFCCC, although the exact scale varies between sources.

These datasets use different methodologies, which can be broadly grouped into bottom-up inventories, top-down satellite-based measurements and hybrid approaches.

Bottom-up inventories, which use sector-specific emission factors and mine-level data:

• The Global Energy Monitor (GEM) estimated about 56 million tonnes of methane per year from active coal mines in 2024, the highest estimate for global CMM emissions. GEM estimates are based on a peer-reviewed study that applies established physical principles linking methane emissions to coal depth and rank, though it does not account for any mine-level mitigation.
• The Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) estimated emissions of 47 million tonnes in 2022 using IPCC-aligned emission factors and activity data.

Top-down satellite-based measurements, which infer emissions directly from atmospheric observations:

• Shen et al. (2023) estimate global emissions at around 33 million tonnes per year based on TROPOMI observations from 2018–2020.
• East et al. (2025) find lower emissions of around 23 million tonnes in 2023, reflecting a decline driven in part by China’s shift from underground to surface mining, and provide more granular country-level estimates used in the comparisons below.

Hybrid approaches, which use a bottom-up methodology as their foundation but also integrate or are evaluated against satellite-based measurements to refine or verify their estimates:

• The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates 36.9 million tonnes from active coal mines in 2024, applying country- and production-specific emission factors while incorporating data from measurement campaigns and satellite detections of large emissions events.
• The Global Fuel Exploitation Inventory (GFEI) similarly builds from UNFCCC-reported national emissions and is explicitly evaluated against satellite atmospheric inversions and also falls in the 30–45 million tonne range.

Taken together, the majority of independent sources indicate that emissions differ from what governments report, highlighting limited understanding of this emissions source and large uncertainties in national reporting.

Reported methane emissions per tonne of coal are falling in many countries, even as total production rises and total emissions remain steady. However, this appears to be largely due to changes in reported emission factors rather than significant targeted abatement measures.

Globally, the reported methane emission factor of coal production has declined by 0.29 tonnes of methane per thousand tonnes of coal produced (tCH4/kt) since 2021, including a decline of 0.67 tCH4/kt since 2019.

Among the nine largest coal producers, five have reported reductions in their coal methane emission factors since 2019.

The likely reasons for this decline are:

• Production shifts away from gassy basins. In China, moving coal output from high-emitting provinces to lower-emitting basins has reduced total emissions since 2016.
• Operational shifts from underground to surface mines. In Australia, the rapid expansion of open-cut mining, which relies on low-methane intensity emission factors rather than measured emissions, has reduced average methane intensity.
• Changes in reporting and methodology. The switch from generic Tier 1 emission factors to country or mine-level measurement (Tier 2/3), especially for surface mines in some locations, has produced lower intensity estimates.
• Underreporting of methane emissions from closed mines. Whilst countries such as Australia, Poland and China retire older, gassy underground mines, these emissions are rarely measured, meaning they are frequently absent or significantly underestimated in national-level reporting.

Different national approaches to measurement and reporting help explain why independent estimates and UNFCCC-based estimates diverge so sharply.

A comparison of UNFCCC-derived estimates with independent assessments from GEM, IEA and values from East et al. (2025) consistently reveals large differences. Across the nine economies analysed, IEA estimates range from 32% lower than UNFCCC-derived values in China to more than 2,000% higher in South Africa. East et al. (2025) satellite-based estimates range from 250% lower in South Africa to 50% higher in China.

In countries that do not report significant methane abatement activities, emissions are also compared with estimates from GEM. Where this is the case – in India, Indonesia and South Africa – estimates range from broadly consistent with UNFCCC-derived figures in India to nearly 2,000% higher in South Africa.

These gaps reflect countries’ continued reliance on emission factors rather than mine-level measurements to estimate and understand their emissions.

China

China is the world’s largest CMM emitter and its mining and reporting choices have a major impact on the global methane picture.

Using China’s most recently reported CMM emissions submitted to the UNFCCC in 2021 and EIA coal production data, Ember estimates that China’s CMM emissions were around 28 million tonnes in 2024. The IEA estimated 32% lower methane emissions from active coal mines in 2024 while East et al. estimated emissions were 50% lower in 2023.

Reported data suggests an overall reduction in methane emission intensity from 6.4 to 6.1 tCH4/kt of coal between 2020 and 2021, even as absolute emissions increased by 170 kilotonnes over the same period. This trend mirrors the sustained decline observed between 2010 and 2019, attributed to the geographical shift of coal production away from high methane-content regions, alongside the closure of high-methane mines and the growth of surface mining.

India

India’s CMM emissions are rising as production expands, but past methodological changes have lowered reported intensity.

Using India’s most recently reported UNFCCC emissions from 2020, CMM emissions were estimated at around 1.2 million tonnes in 2024, matching GEM estimates. The IEA emission estimates in 2024 were 67% higher, while East et al. emission estimates were 23% higher in 2023.

India’s reporting shows two major drops in reported methane emission intensity. Between 1999 and 2000, emission intensity fell from 2.4 to 1.8 tCH4/kt after moving away from IPCC default emission factors and adopting country-specific emission factors for both surface and underground coal mines.

A decade later, between 2009 and 2010, emission intensity dropped again to 1.5 tCH4/kt. This reflected refinement of India’s country-specific emission factors using methane flux measurements from a select number of surface mines. Looking ahead, India is planning to increase its domestic production from both surface and underground mines.

Indonesia

Indonesia’s reported CMM emissions remain low on paper, but independent estimates suggest they may be an order of magnitude higher.

Using Indonesia’s most recently reported UNFCCC emissions from 2022, CMM emissions were estimated at around 0.2 million tonnes in 2024. Independent estimates from GEM and the IEA place emissions between 400% and 1,300% higher.

East et al. emission estimates were 14% higher for 2023. However, their satellite inversion was unable to correct Indonesia’s low reported coal emissions due to sparse TROPOMI satellite observations caused by persistent cloud cover and ocean surfaces.

The steep drop in emission factor in 2000, from 0.6 to 0.2 tCH4/kt, is the result of the IPCC 1996 Revised Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, which updated default coal mine methane emission factors.

Indonesia continues to estimate its CMM emissions using global emission factors and does not account for emissions from underground coal mines.

United States

In the United States, coal production has fallen faster than CMM emissions, pushing reported methane intensity higher.

Using the most recently reported UNFCCC emissions from 2022, US CMM emissions were estimated at around 1.5 million tonnes in 2024. The IEA emission estimates were 11% higher in 2024 and East et al. emission estimates were 37% higher in 2023, suggesting emissions may be higher than both UNFCCC-derived and IEA figures.

The analysis relies only on officially reported CMM submitted to the UNFCCC. For the United States, 2023 data have not yet been officially reported to the UNFCCC, but draft estimates are available on the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) website.

The reported methane emission intensity of coal production in the US has increased from 2.7 to 3.3 tCH4/kt since 2007. This reflects an increase in the proportion of emissions from closed coal mines, from 9% to 13% during this period.

Australia

Australia’s official data report falling methane intensity and low emissions along with falling coal production.

Using Australia’s most recently reported emissions submitted to the UNFCCC in 2023, CMM emissions were estimated at around 0.9 million tonnes in 2024. The IEA emission estimates were 80% higher in 2024, while East et al. emission estimates were consistent with the UNFCCC-derived figure.

Australia’s reported emission intensity has fallen by 0.1 tCH4/kt over the past decade, mainly due to a greater share of surface mining, historically believed to have lower emission intensity than underground mines. Previous analysis found that emissions from Australia’s coal industry dropped to a record low even as production doubled.

However, numerous recent examples of satellite data suggest this may not always be the case. TROPOMI satellite plume detections indicate around 40% more methane from Australian coal mines than is reported in national inventories.

Australia has begun reviewing its methods for estimating methane from open-cut mines.

Russia

Russia reports that improved methane management at underground mines is lowering CMM emission intensity, but independent estimates show much higher emissions than national data.

Using Russia’s most recently reported emissions submitted to the UNFCCC in 2023, CMM emissions were estimated at around 1.4 million tonnes in 2024. The IEA emission estimates were 154% higher in 2024 and East et al. emission estimates were 32% higher in 2023, though the authors note particularly large uncertainty in their Russia results due to sparse TROPOMI observations at high latitudes.

Russia’s reported emission intensity has decreased by 1.6 tCH4/kt over the past decade. In 2022, new national emission factors were developed based on data from coal mining companies, significantly reducing emission intensity for underground and surface mines throughout the country.

Russia reports that intensified degasification, improved methane control standards and the closure of gassy mines have reduced overall methane emission intensity.

South Africa

Using South Africa’s most recently reported emissions submitted to the UNFCCC in 2022, CMM emissions were estimated at around 0.06 million tonnes in 2024. Independent estimates were much higher: the IEA emission estimates were 2300% higher, GEM emission estimates were 1800% higher, and East et al. emission estimates were 250% higher in 2023.

The steep drop in emission factor from 1.7 tCH4/kt in 1999 to 0.3 tCH4/kt in 2000 is the result of the IPCC 1996 Revised Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, which updated default coal mine methane emission factors.

The increase in South Africa’s 2020 CMM figure is due to a change in reported coal production statistics, not the emission factor. South Africa does not report emissions from its surface mines.

Kazakhstan

Using Kazakhstan’s most recent UNFCCC-reported emissions in 2022, CMM emissions were estimated at 0.35 million tonnes in 2023. The IEA emission estimates were 178% higher and GEM emission estimates were 149% higher in 2024. East et al. emission estimates were 71% lower in 2023, though this figure should be interpreted with caution given limited TROPOMI observation density over the region.

Kazakhstan’s CMM emissions have remained stable since the early 2000s. The emission factor dropped from 7.8 tCH4/kt in 1993 to an average of 3.6 tCH4/kt after 2001. This gradual shift is attributed to the country’s transition away from traditionally very deep and gassy underground mines to surface mining.

Poland

In Poland, declining coal output has not yet translated into lower methane intensity, as deeper and older mines remain in operation.

Using Poland’s most recently reported emission factor submitted to the UNFCCC in 2023, CMM emissions were estimated at around 0.5 million tonnes in 2024. The IEA emission estimates were 41% higher in 2024 and East et al. emission estimates were 13% lower in 2023. All three estimates are broadly consistent, reflecting Poland’s relatively strong mine-level measurement practices.

Methane emission intensity has risen from 5.1 tCH4/kt in 2019 to 5.7 tCH4/kt in 2023. This likely reflects continued mining at greater depths in older underground coal mines, which tend to become gassier over time, as well as continued methane release from closed mines even as coal production declines.