Country and region analysis

China, India, the EU and the US accounted for 63% of global electricity demand and 64% of CO2 emissions in the first half of 2025. Development in these countries therefore has a major influence on the global power sector.

In H1-2025, fossil fuel generation and related emissions fell in China and India – a reversal of trends seen in the first half of 2024, as clean sources in both countries grew faster than electricity demand.

Meanwhile, fossil generation and emissions rose in the US as clean generation did not keep pace with demand growth. In the EU, solar grew strongly, but falls in wind, hydro and bioenergy led to an increase in gas generation, and to a lesser extent coal, causing a slight rise in emissions.

China remained the clear frontrunner in clean energy growth, accounting for 55% of the global rise in solar generation and 82% of the rise in wind generation.

The following sections examine developments in these four major economies, whose trajectories are crucial for global electricity demand, generation and emissions.

China met all its demand growth with clean electricity generation in the first half of 2025. This led to a fall in its fossil fuel generation and emissions. China also accounted for most of the global growth in low-carbon electricity: 55% of solar, 82% of wind and 73% of nuclear.

2.1.1 China drives global solar and wind growth

China’s progress in energy transition has been impressive, as shown in Ember’s China Energy Transition Review 2025. In H1-2025, China’s electricity demand rose by 198 TWh (+4.2%), lower than the 326 TWh (+7.5%) increase in the same period in 2024. This moderation was partly due to a more measured pace of industrial demand growth. The increase in demand was outpaced by solar, wind and nuclear generation.

Solar output grew by 168 TWh (+43%) compared to the same period last year, well above the global average of 31% for this period, and accounted for 85% of the increase in China’s electricity growth and 55% of global growth in solar. Solar’s share of China’s power mix rose to 11.5%, up from 8.4% in H1-2024.

Wind generation increased by 79 TWh (+16%), more than double the global average of 7.7%, accounting for 40% of China’s electricity generation growth and 82% of global growth. Wind’s share of the country’s power mix grew from 11% to 12%.

Among low-carbon sources, nuclear generation grew by 24 TWh (+11%), contributing 73% to global nuclear growth. Meanwhile, hydro declined by 11 TWh (-1.9%).

2.1.2 Fossil fuels fall as solar and wind surge

Growth in clean electricity, particularly solar and wind, drove down coal and gas use in the first half of 2025. Coal generation fell by 56 TWh (-2%), reducing its share from 59% to 56%, while gas generation dropped by 2.7 TWh (-2%) compared to the same period last year. Other fossil fuels fell by 0.1 TWh (-1.8%). As a result, China’s power sector emissions fell by 46 MtCO2 (-1.7%).

Looking at the past 12 months, fossil generation shows signs of plateauing. However, it remains unclear when fossil fuels will definitely peak in China, partly because weather can play a significant role in year-to-year variations in demand and generation.

The United States, the world’s largest economy, accounted for 15% (2,190 TWh) of global electricity demand and 12% of global power sector CO2 emissions in the first half of 2025. Unlike China, solar and wind in the US grew less than electricity demand, meeting only 65% of the increase. Coal generation rose to fill the gap and also partly replaced gas, driving an increase in emissions.

2.2.1 Renewables not keeping pace with strong demand growth

Globally, renewables growth met all the increase in electricity demand. That certainly wasn’t the case in the US.

Electricity demand in the US grew by 76 TWh (+3.6%) in H1-2025, compared with an increase of 93 TWh (+4.6%) in the same period last year, when demand was partly boosted by heatwaves. The H1-2025 increase contrasts with flat changes in electricity demand from the mid-2000s to the early 2020s.

Demand is expected to rise further due to growing consumption in the commercial sector, including data centers, and the industrial sector, including manufacturing, according to analysis by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Solar generation rose by 44 TWh (+30%), meeting 58% of demand growth and raising its share of the electricity mix to 8.7%, up from 6.9% a year earlier.

Wind output increased by 5 TWh (+2%), well below the 19 TWh (+8.1%) growth recorded in H1-2024. Despite the increase, its share of the mix fell from 11.7% to 11.5%, as a result of faster demand growth. The slowdown was mainly due to unfavourable wind conditions in February, April, May and June.

Hydro rose by 5 TWh (+4.1%), compared with just 1 TWh (+0.8%) increase last year. In contrast, nuclear output fell by 5.2 TWh (-1.4%).

Overall, strong demand growth increased fossil fuel generation by 18 TWh (+1.6%) and pushed power sector emissions up by 33 MtCO2 (+4.3%).

2.2.2 Much more coal, but less gas

A reversal of previous years’ trend saw gas generation falling in H1-2025, declining in both Q1 and Q2, and partly replaced by coal. Gas generation declined by 34 TWh (-3.9%) compared with a 44 TWh (+5.4%) increase last year, reducing its share of the mix to 37.9% from 40.6%.

Coal generation rose by 51 TWh (+17%), compared with a modest 3.5 TWh (+1.2%) increase in H1-2024, lifting its share to 16.2%, up from 14.4%. This gas-to-coal switch was partly driven by higher gas prices.

India accounted for 6.2% of global electricity demand and 9.1% of global CO2 emissions in the first half of 2025. At the same time, growth in clean sources was more than three times bigger than demand growth, with record solar and wind installations pushing coal generation and emissions down. Fewer heatwaves also contributed to lower electricity demand.

2.3.1 Clean sources outpaced electricity demand amid fewer heatwaves

Electricity demand increased by just 12 TWh (+1.3%) in H1-2025, compared with a rise of 75 TWh (+9%) in the same period last year. This was the lowest absolute growth since the COVID-19 pandemic. This slowdown reflected more measured industrial growth, as well as milder weather that reduced cooling demand. Air conditioning is estimated to account for about 50 GW, or 20% of India’s maximum power load, hence having a significant impact on demand.

Ember estimates that if temperatures had been similar to H1-2024, particularly in April, May and June, demand would have increased by about 3.5% (+32 TWh). Even in that scenario, clean sources, led by solar and wind, would have exceeded demand growth, rising by 40 TWh (+20%) in H1-2025 and pushing coal generation down. Demand growth is expected to rebound in the second half of the year, likely driving higher coal generation.

2.3.2 Solar and wind rose at a record pace

Solar and wind both grew at a record pace in the first half of 2025. Solar was a standout, with generation rising by a record of 17 TWh (+25%) compared to 8 TWh (+13%) in the same period last year. This growth lifted its share of the electricity mix to 9.2%, up from 7.4% in H1-2024.

Wind generation also increased strongly, by a record addition of 11 TWh (+29%), against just 0.5 TWh (+1.3%) last year. Its share of the mix rose to 5.1% from 4%.

The rise in solar generation was on its own bigger than the growth in demand, while the rises in both wind and hydro were both virtually equivalent to demand growth.

Other low-carbon sources also grew. Nuclear generation rose by 3.5 TWh (+14%) compared to 2.6 TWh (+12%) recorded last year. Hydro rebounded with an increase of 9.6 TWh (+17%), a sharp turnaround from the 4.9 TWh (-7.8%) decline in H1 2024.

The expansion of clean energy reduced fossil fuel use. Coal generation fell by 22 TWh (-3.1%), while gas generation declined by 7.1 TWh (-34%). As a result, power sector emissions fell by 24 MtCO2 (-3.6%) compared with the same period last year.

The EU generated 8.8% (1,303 TWh) of global electricity and 4% (293 MtCO2) of the world’s power sector emissions in the first half of 2025. Although solar grew more than demand, poor conditions for wind and hydro caused their output to fall, resulting in higher gas generation and emissions.

2.4.1  Demand growth remains low

Electricity demand increased slightly by 9 TWh (+0.7%) in H1-2025, following a similarly low increase of 14 TWh (+1.1%) in the same period last year. This marks the second consecutive year of modest demand growth, after two years of decline when high electricity prices and the COVID-19 pandemic suppressed industrial activity. Demand is expected to continue rising moderately, as the industrial sector has yet to fully recover.

2.4.2 Despite strong solar growth, wind and hydro fell, leading to rising fossil generation 

Solar generation grew by 37 TWh (+24%) in H1-2025, compared with a 26 TWh (+21%) rise recorded in H1 last year. This lifted solar’s share of the electricity mix to 14%, up from 12%. In June, solar was the single largest source of electricity, accounting for 22% of the bloc’s electricity mix, as Ember reported.

By contrast, wind generation fell by 21 TWh (-8.5%), compared with the 21 TWh (+9.3%) gain seen in H1-2024. Poor wind conditions between January and April reduced its share of the electricity mix to 17%, down from 19% last year.

Hydro generation also fell by 33 TWh (-17%), compared with a 34 TWh (+21%)  increase in H1-2024. In the first half of 2025, droughts and heatwaves pushed hydro’s share down to 12%, from 15%. Bioenergy output dropped by 1.7 TWh (-3.2%), following a smaller decline of 0.8 TWh (-1.5%) last year.

Nuclear grew by 3 TWh (+1%), slightly lifting its share from 23.4% to 23.5% of the electricity mix. This was below the 9 TWh (+3%) growth recorded in H1-2024, following two years of decline.

Falling hydro and wind output drove higher fossil fuel generation. Gas-fired generation increased by 25 TWh (+14%), compared with a 29 TWh (–14%) decline in H1 last year, raising its share of the mix to 16%, from 14% in H1-2024. Coal maintained its share of 9.7% in the mix, growing by 1.4 TWh (+1.1%), in contrast to last year when it fell by 39 TWh (-24%). Other fossil fuels fell by 1.1 TWh (-3%), similar to last year’s 1.9 TWh (5.2%) decline, slightly reducing their share of the electricity mix, from 2.7% to 2.6%.

As a result, the EU’s power sector emissions increased by 13 MtCO2 (+4.8%) in the first half of 2025.