Unblocking electrification can halve EU fossil import dependency by 2040

Electrification – replacing fossil fuels in end-uses with electricity – will be central to Europe’s objectives to decarbonise while boosting competitiveness and security. Electrification cuts fossil imports so effectively because the vast majority of imported fossil fuels are consumed directly in end-uses, like heating and transport. In these uses, the switch from fossil to electricity exchanges a mostly imported energy source for a mostly homegrown one, while lowering the amount of energy needed altogether.

2.1 Homegrown renewable electricity offers a solution

Growth in wind and solar power has already reduced the need for imported fossil fuels to generate electricity, avoiding costs of €59 billion between 2019 and 2024.

EU electricity generation has low reliance on fossil imports

As the power sector has decarbonised, the share of EU electricity generated using locally sourced fuels – such as wind and solar – has grown, and reliance on fossil imports has fallen. In 2024, an estimated 81% of EU electricity generation used locally sourced fuels (or 57% excluding nuclear), meaning just 19% used imported fossil fuels.

The switch to homegrown electricity sources is only set to continue, as virtually all new generation capacity is renewable. Between 2014 and 2024, the EU deployed a combined 377 GW of wind and solar power, in contrast to only 23 GW of new gas and nuclear power. By 2040, virtually all electricity generation will be based on homegrown sources according to the European Commission’s pathways aligned with a 90% cut in greenhouse gas emissions. Europe’s power supply is therefore increasingly independent, and increasingly clean.

Every other sector is more reliant on fossil imports than the power sector

The power sector has low reliance on fossil imports, and consumes relatively little fossil fuel compared to the rest of the economy. Of all primary fossil energy consumed in the EU, 82% is consumed outside the power sector. It is increasingly these other sectors – such as transport, industry, and buildings – that perpetuate the EU’s high fossil import reliance. The highest dependency is seen in the road transport sector, where an estimated 88% of final energy consumption is from imported fossil fuels. All credible decarbonisation pathways see increasing use of electricity in these sectors, and the EU’s homegrown electricity supply is well placed to deliver.

2.2 Electrification central to halving import dependency by 2040

The level of electrification in the EU – defined as the share of final energy consumed as electricity – was 22% in 2023. Final energy is the energy that reaches the final consumer, e.g., the gasoline put into a car, or the electricity consumed by a television. Primary energy, on the other hand, is energy occurring from natural sources, before any conversion of transformation, such as fuel burned in power plants, or wind captured by a wind turbine.

The EU has set an indicative target to electrify 32% of final energy by 2030, and the level could rise to 50% by 2040 according to European Commission pathways. In this scenario, primary fossil consumption would be slashed by two-thirds compared to 2023, with 86% of this occurring outside the power sector. As a result, fossil import dependency would be halved from 58% in 2023 to 30% in 2040.

This reduction in fossil imports has three main drivers, all of which are linked to electrification based on expanding clean power.

1. Growing homegrown clean electricity to displace the remaining fossil fuels used in electricity generation while expanding the overall power supply.
   
2. Switching from fossil energy to electric energy in end-uses.
   
3. Reducing wasted energy inherent in the combustion of fossil fuels, present in both electricity generation and in end-uses.

The resulting energy system would be far more efficient. By 2040, the fall in fossil fuel demand would be more than three times the increase in electricity demand. This is because electric devices are far more efficient than their fossil counterparts. Electric cars convert around 90% of input electricity into useful energy, compared to 20% of petrol for a combustion engine equivalent. Heat pumps produce about three times more heat than the power input by drawing in ambient heat from the air, whereas gas boilers lose more than 10% of the fuel input while producing heat.

2.3 Electrification is already displacing fossil imports

The current level of electrification is uneven across Europe, and the growth of key technologies such as electric vehicles and heat pumps is still at an early stage. However, electrification is already displacing meaningful amounts of imported fossil energy. Electric cars in the EU displaced an estimated 52 million barrels of oil in 2024, equivalent to 1.5% of the EU’s net oil imports. In addition, the EU’s installed stock of residential heat pumps avoided an estimated 5.5 bcm of fossil gas consumption in 2024, equivalent to 3% of total EU gas demand, or 11% of gas imports from Russia.

Europe’s frontrunners in these technologies are showing even more significant displacement of fossil imports.

Electric vehicles displace 11% of Denmark’s oil imports worth €225 million

Denmark is a leader in electric vehicles in Europe. It has the highest share of fully electric vehicles in its fleet (12% in 2024) and in new registrations (60% in 2025). The entire stock of electric cars in Denmark avoided an estimated 3.3 million barrels of oil in 2024, equivalent to 11% of Denmark’s net oil imports, with a value of approximately €225 million. Meanwhile, this fleet of electric cars only accounted for an estimated 3% (1.1 TWh) of Denmark’s electricity demand. The rise of electric vehicles is one of the factors causing diesel and gasoline consumption to decline in Denmark, and in many other Member States too, especially those switching to EVs fastest.

Residential heat pumps displace 10% of gas demand for home heating in the Netherlands, worth €136 million

The Netherlands was the EU’s sixth-largest market for heat pumps in 2024, but compared to other countries, each heat pump installed displaces a relatively large amount of gas due to the largely fossil-based heating stock. While less than one in ten households currently uses a heat pump, the total stock avoided an estimated 0.34 bcm of gas in 2024, equivalent to around 10% of annual consumption for residential space and water heating, with an approximate value of €136 million.