The age of storage: Batteries primed for India’s power markets
Extreme price swings in wholesale electricity markets and growing concerns around grid instability are opening up new markets for energy storage. Batteries are now a critical solution to drive value for both capital and consumers.
Table of Contents
Highlights
Executive Summary
Battery storage set to charge India’s wholesale power markets
Battery participation in power markets, without long-term contracts, has often been viewed as a low-return business riddled with uncertain revenue streams. But India’s evolving electricity landscape has created an environment where battery energy storage systems (BESS) can earn strong returns from power exchanges, while offering critical system-level support to the grid.
Batteries are increasingly recognised as the multitool of the power sector transition. A flexible solution capable of addressing various challenges emanating from a high-renewables grid, from storing low-cost renewable energy to ensuring real-time grid stability, batteries solve several problems. Yet their large-scale deployment has, until recently, been constrained by high upfront costs and uncertain revenue streams.
As more variable renewable energy enters India’s electricity grid, coinciding with sharp declines in battery costs, new business cases are emerging for BESS. One particularly promising opportunity is battery participation in India’s wholesale power and ancillary services market.
Price volatility in the day-ahead market segment of the power exchanges is becoming the norm. Electricity prices are now regularly crashing during solar hours and surging during the evenings and nights.
BESS can buy electricity, charge when prices are low and sell when the rates surge. This unique ability allows them to not only generate revenue from the market inefficiency but also reduce the volatility over time. The report finds that this kind of arbitrage alone is enough to recover the full lifecycle costs of BESS.
Add ancillary (grid balancing) services, and the scenario improves further. Batteries’ ability to store energy and ramp quickly can fundamentally reshape how grid balancing reserves have worked in India. While serving this crucial role for the grid, BESS can actually get paid for drawing electricity when there is an excess in the system.
Since revenue realisation over the lifetime of a merchant BESS project is closely tied to the market inefficiencies they would address, it is essential to assess these issues with a forward-looking lens, especially in the context of a changing energy mix. Yet, even under conservative assumptions, the report finds that batteries show attractive returns across varying cost and efficiency levels, with shorter duration BESS showing even better revenue prospects.
With the regulatory groundwork in place and the economics making sense, BESS, even without long-term power purchase agreements, appears poised to balance a renewables-heavy grid while delivering strong returns.
Key takeaways
Power exchange prices in India’s Day Ahead Market hovered near the price cap in one out of every six hours between 2022 and 2024
Instances of very high prices above INR 9/kilowatt-hour (kWh), with the current price cap at INR 10/kWh, have largely occurred during late evening hours between June and October, driven by costlier coal or gas generators setting the market clearing price.
Average midday power prices fell by nearly 20% from 2022 to 2024 during the summer months, impacting merchant solar revenues
Midday day-ahead market price declines due to oversupply during solar hours have become increasingly common. This trend has reduced revenue realisation for merchant solar, with capture rates averaging ~65% between 2022 and 2024. This highlights a growing mismatch between when solar generates and when the market pays well.
Batteries can earn enough from pure arbitrage to recover their full lifecycle costs
After years of falling battery costs and growing revenue from power exchanges, merchant BESS became financially viable from 2024. BESS costs have declined 80% since 2015, with the 2024 levelised storage costs (2-hour) estimated at INR 1.7 million/megawatt-hour (MWh). Over the same period, potential revenues from India’s Day Ahead Market have grown fivefold, reaching INR 2.4 million/MWh in 2024. This marks a turning point for merchant BESS investment.
Merchant BESS projects commissioned in 2024 can deliver an IRR of up to 24%
A system installed in 2025 can earn ~INR 2.7 million/MWh/year from day-ahead market arbitrage, plus INR 0.7 million/MWh/year from ancillary services, averaged over its lifetime. However, the uncertainty in how market prices evolve and the value capture efficiency will determine the actual revenue realisation.
BESS delivers attractive returns even under conditions of cost uncertainty and technical variability
A system installed in 2024 can achieve a 17% IRR from energy arbitrage alone. Considering an expected 5% variation in depth of discharge, round-trip efficiency and system costs, merchant BESS returns vary between 15.5% and 18%.
Shorter duration (1-2hr) merchant BESS currently offer better returns as compared to a 4hr system
Merchant BESS with 1–2 hour durations earn higher IRRs (15–22%) than 4-hour systems (13–18%) because of their ability to exploit greater price arbitrage through faster charge-discharge cycles.
Grid balancing services can top up revenues for merchant BESS
Batteries, due to their fast-acting nature, are well-suited to provide real-time grid balancing reserves. Newly opened market segments like India’s Secondary Reserve Ancillary Services (SRAS) offer a revenue stream for this capability.
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