The G7 should set a goal to triple their renewable capacity

Tripling renewables is the single largest action to cut emissions this decade and keep the 1.5C goal within reach. At the UN’s COP28 climate change conference in December, world leaders, including all G7 members, reached a historic agreement to triple global renewables capacity by 2030. We present analysis that shows a global tripling means a G7 tripling, and that the G7 is currently only targeting a doubling. We also show the steps the G7 should take to turn this into action.

At the 2023 G7 Ministerial Meeting on Climate, Energy and Environment the G7 members reaffirmed their commitment to the Paris Agreement on climate change while keeping the 1.5C goal “within reach through scaled up action in this critical decade.” This pledge now needs to be supported by concrete actions, which have not been updated since the global commitment to triple renewables at COP28. G7 members signed on to the pledge to triple renewable capacity at COP28, however, the collective G7 targets would only deliver a doubling.

The 2024 G7 Ministers’ Meeting on Climate, Energy and Environment being held from 28-30 April, 2024 in Italypresents an opportunity for G7 leaders to set an example and build momentum for raised action worldwide. Failure to do so risks undermining the global goal at its very first hurdle. Given the recent acceleration in renewables deployment worldwide leaders should feel confident in upgrading the G7 target to a tripling.

G7 needs to triple renewable capacity by 2030

A global tripling does not mean that every country is required to triple its renewables capacity–some will do more, some less–but evidence shows that G7 countries in aggregate would require a tripling. A recent Climate Analytics reportassessed 1.5C compliant IPCC scenarios that give a regional breakdown of renewables build. Climate Analytics showed the median of these was a 3.4X rise in renewables capacity from 2022 to 2030, slightly more than the tripling agreed at COP28. Some regions are starting from a low baseline and need to far more than triple, for example the Middle East and North Africa need to increase 11.8X from 2022. The OECD region, which we assume as a proxy for the G7, increases its renewable capacity by 3.1 times. Therefore, a tripling of global renewable capacity means a tripling of G7 renewable capacity.

G7 targets are 0.7 TW short of a tripling

Currently, the G7 are collectively only targeting a doubling, leaving a gap of 0.7 TW to tripling. According to Ember’s 2030 Global Renewable Target Tracker, the collective sum of the G7 members’ 2030 renewable capacity targets is 2 TW. This is just over a doubling (2.2X) of 2022 capacity (0.9 TW). A tripling of renewable capacity is 2.7 TW, leaving a 0.7 TW gap between current targets and a tripling aligned goal.

Germany, the UK, and Italy, this year’s host of the G7, are leading the way with 2030 targets that are more than a doubling of 2022 capacity.  However, France and Japan are lagging behind their G7 partners with targets well below a tripling. The US and Canada do not have explicit targets, and the 2030 targets used here are extracted from official modelling studies and classified as implicit targets in the Ember 2030 Global Renewable Target Tracker. Enacting official national targets for 2030 would provide certainty about the level of ambition in the US and Canada, and signal their intention to contribute to the global tripling goal.

Progress in G7 members’ clean energy transition

All G7 countries have begun to install wind and solar at scale. Germany and the UK lead the way with wind and solar at 58% and 42% of total capacity, respectively. Canada is the lowest at 14%, followed by the United States (21%), Japan (27%) and Italy (29%).

Some G7 members are already adding renewable capacity at the annual level needed to meet their 2030 target, which shows there is an opportunity to push for more ambition. For example, annual additions of renewable capacity over the past three years in Canada have ranged from 2-3 GW, and to meet their current target additions only have to continue at an average of 2.3 GW per year through to 2030. Canada has the least ambitious 2030 target of the G7 members with a 1.2 increase over 2022 renewable capacity, and also the target is not enshrined in any official policy document. Canada also has the lowest penetration of wind and solar in the capacity mix of all G7 countries (14% in 2022). Canada is hosting the G7 summit in 2025 and has an opportunity to increase its renewable target to match the ambition of other G7 members.

Acknowledgement

Cover image: Roy Conchie / Alamy Stock Photo