Demand growth slows, but still outpaces wind and solar

Increase in demand due to record temperatures

Annual electricity demand in Türkiye in 2024 has increased by 5.5% (+18 TWh) compared to the previous year. In 2024, the month with the highest increase in demand was June with an increase of 3.6 TWh compared to the previous year, with February and July also showing a noteworthy increase.

Increased cooling demand due to record high temperatures was mainly behind the increase in electricity consumption. The average temperature records were broken in June and July in Türkiye, making them the hottest months of the last 54 years. In 2024, June was two degrees warmer than the average June temperature in 2019, which was previously measured to be the hottest. 

In addition, electricity consumption, which dropped sharply after the earthquake in February 2023, rose again in the first year after the earthquake. This was another factor that pushed the electricity demand upwards year-on-year, and explains why February is one of the months with the highest year-on-year increase in 2024.

Industry is not the source of increased electricity demand

National electricity tariffs applied to electricity consumers also have an impact on consumption. This was reflected in late 2022, as electricity demand started to decline compared to the previous year. This decline in the consumption of residential and commercial consumers, especially after the 20-30% increase in September 2022, continued in January 2023. Demand from these consumer groups, which rose back to previous levels at the beginning of 2024, is the main reason for the increase in demand in January. 

In the last quarter of 2024, the main source of the increase in demand was again residential and commercial consumers rather than industry. In November and December, year-on-year residential consumption increased by 18% and 12% respectively, while commercial consumption rose by 9% and 10%. As a result, total demand grew by 1.3 TWh in each of these months due to these two consumer segments.

Wind and solar need to outpace demand growth to displace fossil fuel imports

Although wind and solar energy play an important role in meeting Türkiye’s electricity demand, they are not increasing at a rate to meet annual increases in power demand. Wind and solar’s gains mean that fossil power grew less quickly than it otherwise would have, leading to a decline in its share of Türkiye’s power. In the five-year period from 2019 to 2024, Türkiye experienced a 14% increase in electricity consumption (+42 TWh). Three quarters of this increase was met by the rise in wind and solar generation. However, year-on-year imported fossil fuel generation still increased to meet the remaining demand growth. 

The need for rapid wind and solar growth to meet demand is compounded by variability in hydro levels. Although hydro power hit its third highest level in 2024, this still marked a decrease of 14 TWh compared to 2019. This nearly matches the increases in electricity generation from wind (+15 TWh) or solar (+16 TWh) power plants between 2019 and 2024.  In years with poor hydro conditions, wind and solar would have to generate enough to meet both the shortfall in hydropower and increased demand in order to reduce fossil fuel imports.

In addition to hydro power, electricity generation from domestic coal fell by 5 TWh in the same five year period. Imported coal and gas met the decline in these two sources, as well as the remaining increase in demand.

For the energy transition to take place in Türkiye, new wind and solar power plants that can generate at least as much electricity as the increase in electricity demand must be commissioned every year. Each unit of electricity consumption increase that cannot be met by new wind and solar power plants will be met by gas power plants. This will cause the country’s import bill to increase. Considering the decrease in hydroelectricity production caused by dry years, this amount is likely to increase even more. 

Growth in electricity demand has slowed since 2017

Although the long-term trend of electricity consumption in Türkiye shows a significant upward trend, the rate of this increase has slowed down. Except for two years of economic contraction, electricity demand steadily grew until 2017. After 2017, it remained stagnant for several years.  

According to Türkiye’s new climate strategy announced during COP29, demand is expected to rise by 113 TWh by 2030. This is nearly three times the demand growth over the last five years (42 TWh). For such a significant increase by 2030, a major policy change driving higher electricity consumption would be necessary or the forecast 2030 demand would be overestimated.

When analysed in terms of population, economic growth and electrification, there is no indication of factors to drive the forecast level of demand growth. Population growth in Türkiye has started to slow down. By 2030, only a 3.3% increase in population is expected. Economic growth prospects in the country are also lower than in the last five years. Likewise, electrification projections do not indicate this level of growth. Although Türkiye is expected to reach 2 million electric vehicles by 2030 and 183 thousand electric cars by the end of 2024, this would still fall far from the projected electricity demand increase.

Understanding the trajectory of demand growth will determine how much new wind and solar capacity needs to be installed each year to ensure energy security. It is therefore important to clearly understand the drivers behind projected demand growth, as well as how they align with wind and solar targets.