UK low-carbon renewable power set to overtake fossil fuels for first time

Executive summary

UK low-carbon renewable power set to overtake fossil fuels for first time

2024 is set to be the first full year where UK low-carbon renewables – wind, solar and hydropower – generate more electricity than fossil fuels, with wind power close to becoming the single largest source of UK power for the first time.

UK low-carbon renewable power will cross a significant threshold in 2024, overtaking fossil fuel generation for the first full year. 2024 saw the UK mark another significant milestone, closing its last coal power plant and joining a third of OECD nations now coal-free. Across 2024 there has also been a large decrease in fossil gas power, helped by rising renewable energy, low electricity demand and cheaper power imports.

Analysis

UK low-carbon renewable power set to overtake fossil fuels for first time

Rising renewables, low demand and cheaper power imports all helped reduce fossil fuel use in the UK power system to record lows. For the first full year wind, solar, and hydropower will generate more electricity than all fossil fuels combined.

Homegrown UK renewable power will cross a significant threshold in 2024, overtaking fossil fuel generation for the first full year. Wind, solar and hydropower are set to generate a combined 37% of UK electricity in 2024 (103 TWh), compared to 35% from fossil fuels (97 TWh). Just 3 years ago, in 2021, fossil fuels generated 46% of UK electricity, while low-carbon renewables generated 27%.

Low-carbon renewables drive a rapid decline in fossil fuels

Fossil generation in 2024 has fallen by two-thirds since 2000, with the long awaited phase-out of coal power, and gas increasingly displaced by cheaper, cleaner power sources. 

Coal started to decline rapidly from 2012 and since 2020, coal power has made up only 2% of generation in the UK, dropping to zero by October 2024. 

Gas has seen a gradual decline since 2016. Across 2024 there has been a large decrease in fossil gas power, which provided 30% of electricity in 2024 (85 TWh), down from 34% in 2023 (98 TWh).

UK wind propels renewables to significant milestone

As well as low-carbon renewable power overtaking fossil fuels for the first time, wind power is well on its way to overtaking gas as the largest single power source, although with only 1% difference in generation forecasts it is too close to call in 2024. 

In the first three quarters of the year, wind out-generated gas power, but towards the end of 2024 there was a lull in wind speeds and a reduction in temperatures which has shrunk the difference between annual wind and gas power supply to 1%. 

Wind is set to generate 29% of UK electricity in 2024 (82 TWh), just behind gas power at 30% (85 TWh). Based on historical data Ember would expect the wind power generation total in 2024 to be no less than 81 TWh and with a maximum of 87 TWh. With final totals dependent on wind speeds, interconnector flows and overall demand in December, it is too close to call whether wind power will overtake gas to become the UK’s largest source of electricity in 2024.

Nonetheless along with wind, solar and hydropower overtaking all generation from fossil sources, this is another sign of the transformations underway on the road to a clean power system in 2030. 

A rise in wind capacity and generation, with large increases on the horizon

The increase in UK wind generation in 2024 (+1.5%) is mainly due to a large increase in generation from onshore wind. There was a 23% increase in onshore wind generation in the first three quarters of 2024, the second largest percentage growth since 2017, a result of slightly increased capacity and improved wind speeds. In 2024, there has been an increase in UK onshore wind capacity of 590 MW, with a further 78 MW targeting completion before the start of 2025. The onshore Viking Wind Farm on Shetland, completed in September 2024, makes up the majority of newly installed capacity at 443 MW. The lifting of the de facto onshore wind ban in July 2024 is expected to lead to an increased deployment rate in the near-medium term in England, as part of the progression towards a clean power system in 2030. 

In comparison to the growth in onshore wind, offshore wind has had a slower year. No new offshore wind farms have entered full commercial operation in 2024, though some partially built sites are sending power to the grid already. Offshore wind farms generating power in 2024 prior to final completion include Dogger Bank A&B, Neart na Gaoithe, and Moray West wind farms. These sites under construction have expected final completion dates in 2025 and 2026 and will add a combined 3.8 GW to total UK wind capacity. Over the next few years, therefore, wind power generation potential is set to increase significantly, continuing the trend of renewable power increasingly displacing fossil gas.

Electricity use in 2024 was similar to 2023, among the lowest in 20 years

The trend of long-term reductions in UK electricity consumption continued in 2024 with demand in the first three quarters at the second lowest levels in the last 30 years. Notably, electricity consumption in July and August 2024 was the lowest for those months since before 1995. Comparing 2023 and 2024 however, electricity demand has stayed broadly similar, with 2024 only 1% higher overall. 

Targeting clean power will further displace expensive gas

With the closure of the last UK coal power plant in 2024, the journey to clean power in 2030 is now focussing more on reducing reliance on fossil gas in the power system. Despite these recent changes, the UK power system remains resilient with the winter capacity margin at its largest for five years. Clean power development can therefore cut reliance on expensive gas imports while retaining network security, supported by energy storage and interconnection with neighbouring countries.