Conclusion

Electrification boosts the security and stability benefits of Clean Power 2030

UK gas and oil production is in long-term decline. The only way to reduce import reliance is to accelerate clean power deployment and supply consumer demand with a more resilient, independent grid.

The Clean Power 2030 Action Plan is estimated to reduce imports in the power system by around half due to the accelerated deployment of renewable energy displacing gas power, despite declining UK oil and gas production. However, the wider energy system remains reliant on imports of gas and oil for heating, transport and commercial uses. Furthermore, the Clean Power 2030 Action Plan does not target deep reductions in biomass consumption, which is currently overwhelmingly reliant on imports.

Clean power builds stability but is part of a bigger opportunity

Gas imports for power generation in 2030 are estimated to be 57% lower than in 2023. However, domestic heating using gas is increasingly reliant on imports, by 2030 a heat pump will rely on 85% less energy imports compared to a gas boiler.

Transport fuels make up the largest component of domestic energy expenditure, and are another connection between household expenditure and international markets. Petrol and diesel pump prices are 13% above pre-pandemic levels (2024 and 2019 average), as pump prices have risen alongside gas prices during the energy crisis. Electrifying heating and transport reduces import dependence and importantly, strengthens energy stability across multiple energy sources by making the best of a more efficient and independent UK power system.

A strategic approach to energy security and electrification

Although there is a power system action plan, the UK does not yet have a joined-up strategy to bring together the energy security benefits of clean power with the cost benefits of electrified household energy consumption. Households use more gas than the power sector, and spend more on vehicle fuels than on electricity and gas combined.

A new strategy is needed to fortify the wider energy system against price shocks and import dependence. Electrification is a critical part of the solution to significantly reduce import reliance for household energy, along with wider measures to improve energy efficiency and reduce consumer bills.