Deployment of renewable power is accelerating across the Mediterranean, with the region on track to double renewable capacity by 2030 – but falling short of the TeraMed Initiative’s objective of reaching 1 TW, highlighting the need to move faster, together.
In light of the objectives of the TeraMed campaign, it is pertinent to explore existing renewable capacity and generation in the Mediterranean region and the 2030 outlook based on current plans.
As of 2023, installed renewable power capacity (315 GW) surpassed fossil fuels (293 GW). Wind and solar dominate, with 88 GW and 107 GW, respectively. Hydropower contributes 108 GW, while nuclear capacity (69 GW) remains concentrated in Northern Mediterranean countries.
National energy plans demonstrate a huge push on renewable expansion, with the region planning to double its total renewable capacity from 315 GW to 626 GW by 2030. This expansion will be driven primarily by solar (+204 GW) and wind (+89 GW). While Southern European countries are expected to contribute the largest absolute increases, North African nations will see the most significant relative growth.
Despite the rapid pace of renewables deployment, the region is projected to fall short of the TeraMed Initiative’s 1 TW target by 2030 by 374 GW. To reach this target, the average annual renewable capacity increase has to more than double from the planned 44 GW per year to 98 GW. Bridging this gap using wind and solar is the optimal solution, so an additional 54 GW of wind and solar needs to be installed over and above planned deployment. Increased political support and financial incentives will be essential to closing this shortfall and realising the Mediterranean’s full renewable potential.
The strategic importance of the Mediterranean region for energy supply has traditionally been characterized by fossil fuel flows from South to North. Hydrocarbon-rich countries such as Algeria, Libya and Egypt have supplied natural gas and oil to import-dependent Southern European nations. This dynamic became even more evident during the gas crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, prompting a rush by European governments to secure alternative energy sources through bilateral trade agreements with North African countries.
North Africa emerged as a key partner for Europe due to its geographic proximity, existing pipeline connections and abundant natural resources. However, these resources are not limited to fossil fuels – the region is also endowed with significant renewable energy sources, particularly wind and solar. These bring unparalleled opportunities for enhanced energy security, economic growth and regional cooperation.
Recent initiatives demonstrate a strong push for green partnerships in the Mediterranean. This is evident in bilateral agreements between the EU and North African countries, such as the EU-Egypt Strategic Partnership signed in 2024, which includes stepping up cooperation and investments for renewable energy sources and energy efficiency actions. And at an EU-level, the creation of a dedicated EU Commissioner for the Mediterranean and a forthcoming Trans-Mediterranean Energy and Clean Tech Cooperation Initiative signal institutional commitment.
This new wave of cooperation on clean power marks a departure from the historical model which largely revolved around North African fossil fuel exports supplying Southern Europe. Today, most North African countries are already self-sufficient in electricity generation and have reached almost 100% access to electricity, with minimal cross-border power exchange. Tunisia is the only exception, importing 11% of its electricity in 2023. This shift from a one-way resource flow to a more balanced regional collaboration presents opportunities to ensure that the new course of energy partnerships between the Northern and Southern shores of the Mediterranean are truly mutually beneficial.
Building on this momentum, new multilateral efforts are emerging to accelerate renewable deployment across the Mediterranean region. One such example is the TeraMed Initiative which aims to drive political and diplomatic momentum toward achieving 1 TW of renewable capacity by 2030. This is aligned with the global target of tripling renewable energy capacity set at COP28. The TeraMed Initiative, launched at the Cairo Energy Week in September 2024, is promoted by a growing network of like-minded organizations and supported by the Union for the Mediterranean, IRENA and Global Renewable Alliance. It is further reinforced by the MED9 agreement to make the Mediterranean a regional energy hub.
In 2023, Mediterranean countries had a combined installed renewable capacity of 315 GW, dominated by wind (88 GW), solar (107 GW) and hydropower (108 GW) and surpassing fossil fuel-based generation capacity (293 GW). Installed nuclear power was 69 GW, exclusively in Northern Mediterranean countries.
In 2023, Southern European countries accounted for 230 GW (73%) of renewable capacity, Türkiye for 58.5 GW (19%) and North African countries for just 12 GW (4%). Other Mediterranean countries have a combined total of 14 GW renewables.
The availability of low-cost electricity and abundant domestic fossil fuel resources in North Africa – which are often heavily subsidised – has restricted incentives to invest in alternative energy sources. The exceptions are Morocco and Tunisia, which lack their own hydrocarbon reserves and rely on fuel imports to meet their primary energy needs. Morocco, in particular, has consistently prioritised wind and solar investments, positioning itself as a regional leader in renewable energy deployment. In fact, renewables already accounted for 40% of Morocco’s total power generation capacity in 2023, and it has set a target to increase this to 52% by 2030.
Renewables are the fastest-growing energy source in most Mediterranean countries, and this trajectory is set to continue. By 2030, installed renewable capacity across the region is projected to double to 626 GW from 315 GW in 2023. This increase is primarily driven by a surge in solar (204 GW) and wind (89 GW).
This trajectory clearly demonstrates that the pace of growth is accelerating. From 2016 to 2023, renewable capacity grew by 55% (+112 GW) and it will increase by almost 100% (+310 GW) from 2024 to 2030.
Capacity figures for 2030 are based on published government targets for power capacity. Where explicit targets are not established, estimates for 2030 capacities have been calculated using historical trends. This was only necessary for Tunisia and Libya.
All Mediterranean countries are expected to contribute to this expansion. While additions in absolute terms are expected to be larger in the Southern European countries, the relative increase is most significant in North Africa. This is particularly notable for Algeria, which has set a target of 16 GW of solar, 5 GW of wind and 1 GW of other renewable technologies under its Renewable Energy Development Programme. This represents an almost 40-fold increase from its current installed renewable capacity of 0.6 GW.
While challenges in the region, such as geopolitical tensions and financing constraints, could affect the pace of implementation, there are clear indications that existing 2030 targets are achievable.
Comparing the implied future annual installation rate to historical deployment rates reveals that many of these targets are within feasible limits, instilling confidence in the overall 2030 renewable capacity projections. The maximum annual renewable deployment across the Mediterranean countries between 2000-2023 reached a total of 45 GW – almost the same as the average annual deployment required to reach national renewable targets (44 GW).
At the country level, only a handful of cases imply annual additions that are significantly higher (+20%) than historical deployment.
Despite the significant growth in renewable energy, the Mediterranean region is currently projected to fall short of the TeraMed Initiative’s 1 TW renewable capacity target by 2030, which was set in alignment with the global target of tripling renewable energy capacity. Based on current country projections for 2030, the shortfall is estimated to be 374 GW.
The most effective way to address this gap is through accelerated investment in wind and solar due to the huge potential in the region and the fact that their costs are becoming increasingly competitive with fossil fuels. This shortfall requires an additional 54 GW of wind and solar capacity on average each year, over and above the planned annual renewable deployment of 44 GW (wind and solar account for 42 GW). This means more than doubling the planned annual capacity expansion to a total of 98 GW renewables, a figure which significantly exceeds the maximum historical deployment levels of 45 GW. Splitting this additional 54 GW across wind and solar according to relative shares of planned capacity expansions implies 16.5 GW of wind and 37.5 GW of solar each year, over and above the planned 13 GW and 29 GW respectively.
Additional political support and financial incentives will be essential to closing this shortfall and ensuring the Mediterranean’s full renewable potential is realised.
These findings align with projections from the OMEC (Organisation Méditerranéenne de l’Energie et du Climat) which indicate that renewable capacity will more than double by 2030 based on current trends, but a tripling is required to align with a net-zero pathway by 2050. While Northern and Eastern Mediterranean countries are currently leading renewables deployment, OMEC’s carbon-neutral scenarios suggest that future efforts must prioritize Southern Mediterranean countries.
This echoes recommendations by other organisations, such as the ECFR, for ongoing and future efforts to give clear priority to scaling up the production of renewable energy in the southern neighbourhood in order to fully develop the tremendous potential in the region for clean power.
Beyond wind and solar investments, the integration of renewables will require substantial investments in electricity grids, storage and flexibility solutions. By 2030, OMEC projects that energy storage will account for 1-2% of total power generation, rising to 10% by 2050 to support a net-zero transition. Therefore, alongside the necessary ramp up in renewables deployment to reach 1 TW by 2030, strengthening grid interconnections, expanding energy storage capacity and enhancing demand-side flexibility will be crucial to ensuring a reliable and resilient renewable energy system.
Historical capacity data is based on Ember’s yearly electricity data, last downloaded on 26th March 2025. Annual data was available from 2000 until 2023.
Planned capacity additions until 2030 are based on countries’ most recent energy plans. For EU member states, the figures are sourced from the National Energy and Climate Plans. For other Mediterranean countries, 2030 targets are based on Ember’s 2030 Global Renewable Target Tracker, unless otherwise indicated in the data download file.
Karim Elgendy, Executive Director at Carboun Institute
Gabriele Cassetti, Senior Researcher Energy Systems at ECCO
Filomena Annunziata, Researcher Mediterranean Policy at ECCO
Offshore wind turbine generating electricity.
Trygve Finkelsen / Alamy Stock Photos
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