Renewables point the way to Mexico’s energy security
Over half of Mexico’s electricity relies on United States gas imports, risking its energy security. Achieving 45% clean generation by 2030 could cut gas imports for electricity by 20%, saving $1.6 billion USD per year.
Available in: Español
19 May 2025
32 Minutes Read
Table of Contents
Executive summary
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More gas imports, less energy independence
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A rise in gas generation has driven up Mexico’s gas imports
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Risks of dependence on imported gas
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Renewable Energy = Energy security and independence
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Solar and wind generation helped cut gas imports by 2024
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Accelerating from 36% to 45% clean electricity by 2030
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Renewable energy, achievable and beneficial
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Tripling renewable generation in five years is possible
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High potential for green job creation
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Conclusion
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Supporting materials
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Highlights
54%
Electricity generated in Mexico with gas imported from the US in 2024
$1.6 bn
Estimated savings in 2030 in US dollars from reduced gas imports if 45% of clean generation is achieved
+434,000
Direct jobs that could be created in the construction and operation phases if 45% clean generation is achieved by 2030
Executive summary
Renewables can reduce Mexico’s reliance on imported gas
The current Mexican government can outline an ambitious strategy so that in the next five years clean generation will cover 45% of national electricity demand, building a diversified energy mix to meet the growing electricity consumption of its population.
Mexico generated 22% of its electricity from renewables in 2024, below the global average of 32% and well below the Latin American average of 62%. In October 2024, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, in her inaugural address, declared that renewables would be promoted so as to reach a 45% share of electricity generation by 2030. The current National Electricity Sector Strategy outlines three possible scenarios for the energy transition, including one reaching the 45% target and another reaching 36%. This new analysis by Ember demonstrates the socioeconomic and energy security benefits of implementing ambitious clean energy targets by 2030.
Mexico is exposed. Reliance on imported fossil fuels for electricity generation jeopardises the government’s ability to ensure a reliable and affordable energy supply for its citizens. Clean energy is a win-win. Achieving ambitious targets for solar and wind energy will allow Mexico to strengthen its energy independence, while creating multiple socio-economic benefits.
Key takeaways
01
Mexico could reduce its dependence on imported gas for power generation by 20% by 2030
In 2024, more than half of Mexico’s electricity was generated using gas imported from the United States. To reach 45% clean electricity by 2030 would mean the installation of 46 GW of solar and wind power. This would reduce gas-fired electricity generation in Mexico by 20% from 203.8 TWh in 2024 to 163.4 TWh in 2030, even as electricity demand rises by 15%. This would reduce the need to import gas by more than 384 billion cubic feet (Bcf) compared to 2024.
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Reaching 45% clean energy by 2030 would avoid spending $1.6 billion USD annually on purchasing gas
Reducing demand for gas imports for generation by 384 Bcf would avoid gas import costs of $1.6 billion USD per year, which is equivalent to approximately 63% of the total budget allocated to the environment and natural resources sector in Mexico for 2025. This saving is 10 times greater than what would be achieved in a scenario of 36% clean energy by 2030.
03
46 GW of new solar and wind energy projects would create more than 434,000 direct jobs
The installation of 36 GW of solar energy capacity and 10 GW of wind energy would boost the local labour market. 419,000 direct jobs would be created in the construction phase, while more than 15,000 permanent direct jobs would be created to operate these renewable generation plants for more than 20 years.
Meeting the 45% clean energy target would involve tripling renewable generation within five years. Examples from other countries in Latin America show this rate of increase is feasible. Brazil more than tripled solar generation in five years, and Uruguay achieved a similar rate of increase with wind. In both cases, swift planning approval was a key factor enabling rapid renewable rollout.
