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Methodology

Electricity demand growth

For the estimation of electricity demand in 2030, an average annual growth rate of 2.4% was used, in line with the PRODESEN 2024-2038 planning scenario.

Emissions

A factor of 0.505 tCO2/MWh was used to estimate the emissions avoided by reducing the use of gas for electricity generation.

Green jobs

Factors were adjusted based on methodologies developed by NREL (JEDI), GIZ (Co-beneficios de la energía sustentable), IRENA (Renewable energy and jobs: annual review 2030).

Solar energy. Construction: direct jobs (10 jobs/MW), indirect jobs (6 jobs/MW), induced jobs (3 jobs/MW). Operation: direct jobs (0.4 jobs/MW), indirect jobs (0.3 jobs/MW), induced jobs (0.4 jobs/MW).

Wind energy. Construction: direct jobs (6 jobs/MW), indirect jobs (5.4 jobs/MW), induced jobs (2 jobs/MW). Operation: direct jobs (0.15 jobs/MW), indirect jobs (0.2 jobs/MW), induced jobs (0.1 jobs/MW).

Energy transition scenarios

The 2030 clean energy generation scenarios of 36% and 45% from the National Electricity Sector Strategy were used. Although the Electricity Industry Law includes renewable energy, nuclear energy and efficient cogeneration within clean energy, for the purposes of this analysis, growth in efficient cogeneration was not projected. 

The estimated installed solar and wind capacity for the two clean energy scenarios was not conditioned by existing commitments to install new thermal generation plants. Likewise, the commissioning of new geothermal generation projects with a 2030 horizon was not considered.

US gas exports to Mexico

Historical volume and price of dry gas exported to Mexico taken from U.S. Energy Information Administration. Validation against information reported by CONAHCYT.

Dry gas refers to gas transported in a gaseous state by pipeline, unlike LNG, which is transported in a liquid state under pressure, mainly by ship or train.

Capacity factor

The plant factors used to estimate the electricity generation of the solar and wind power plants were taken from El Sistema Eléctrico Nacional, Part 1. Integration and analysis of information on installed capacity, generation and plant factor. For solar energy 21% was used and for wind energy 30%.

Electricity generation by source

Taken from the Ember data explorer. Validation against information reported by CONAHCYT.

Gas demand for electricity generation was taken from CONAHCYT.

The estimate of imported gas demand for power generation assumes that PEMEX consumes 85% of local gas production and that the remainder is used entirely for power generation.

Projected gas prices to 2030

Projections made by ECLAC, PRODESEN 2024-2038, and IEA WEO 2024 were used as input. The 3 gas price scenarios for 2030 were estimated as follows: i) low price ($1.9 USD/Mpc), the lowest historical price of US exports to Mexico in the last 10 years, ii) average price ($4.2 USD/Mpc), average of: PRODESEN medium price, IEA STEPS, ECLAC, the average price of US exports to Mexico of the last 5 years, and iii) high price ($6.4 USD/Mpc), average of: PRODESEN high price, Henry Hub highest price of the last 5 years, and highest price of US exports to Mexico of the last 5 years.

The report’s main findings were calculated using an average gas price of $4.2 USD/Mcf.

Electricity Generation projects

The electricity generation projects under construction and the generation investment plan was taken from The National Electricity Sector Strategy. The analysis did not consider the installation of new nuclear or coal power plants by 2030, but contemplates the entry into operation of 535.6 MW of hydro and 300 MW of solar currently under construction.

Acknowledgements

Cover image

Wind turbines in Oaxaca, Mexico.

Credit: Jon G. Fuller/VWPics / Alamy Stock Photo

Contributors

The author wishes to thank his colleagues at Ember for their valuable contributions to the preparation of this report. Special thanks to Richard Black for his strategic guidance and ongoing support; Dave Jones for the peer review; Hannah Broadbent for her assistance with editing and for designing and implementing the communications strategy; Nicolas Fulghum for data validation; and Lauren Orso for her support in creating the illustrations. The author also extends his gratitude to Chelsea Bruce-Lockhart, Sachin Sreejith, Kavya Sharma, Kostantsa Rangelova, Ufuk Alparslan and Uni Lee for their support at various stages of the report’s development.