Türkiye’s need for cooling projected to grow further

Rising temperatures, population growth and economic development could lead to a surge in Türkiye’s total cooling consumption and peak demand in the coming years.

The share of cooling in Türkiye’s annual electricity demand is growing by an average of 9% each year. Türkiye’s cooling demand – at 10 TWh in 2024 – could more than double by 2030 to exceed 20 TWh. By 2035, it could rise further to 35 TWh. 

In other words, cooling demand, which accounted for 2.9% of total electricity consumption in 2024, could increase to 4.5% in 2030 and 6.7% in 2035. This projected growth highlights the need to integrate cooling demand into long-term energy planning to ensure a reliable, clean and climate-resilient power system.

Despite the global pandemic, peak demand in Türkiye has grown at an annual rate of 4% over the past decade. If this trend continues, Türkiye’s hourly peak demand is projected to increase 1.5-fold by 2035, potentially exceeding 85 GW.

Projections in the National Energy Plan prepared by the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (ETKB) forecast total electricity demand at 455 TWh in 2030 and 510 TWh in 2035 – an ambitious growth scenario for Türkiye’s electricity consumption. Based on these estimates, peak demand could increase by 17 GW by 2030 and 27 GW by 2035 compared to the record level reached in 2025. However, under a more moderate scenario in which total electricity demand grows at the 2.5% annual average observed over the past five years, Türkiye would require an additional 7 GW of generation capacity by 2030 and 16 GW by 2035.

In other words, under this lower-growth scenario, Türkiye would need to expand its installed generation capacity by 6% by 2030. This increase could be met entirely through the 8 GW of hybrid solar potential available at existing wind and hydroelectric power plants – demonstrating that Türkiye could meet its additional capacity needs by using existing infrastructure.