From OECD to emerging markets: fossil power’s global decline has begun

Fossil power is in permanent retreat as OECD nations move beyond their peaks.

OECD nations have reached a definitive turning point, transitioning from a historical peak in fossil fuel generation to a sustained and structural decline. Ambitious coal phase-out targets, combined with rapid wind and solar deployment, have allowed OECD nations to increasingly decouple their electricity sectors from fossil fuels in favor of a cleaner power mix. For governments, this shift represents a strategic pivot toward energy sovereignty; by prioritizing domestically generated renewables, countries are insulating themselves from the price volatility and geopolitical risks that accompany dependence on global fossil fuel markets.

Ember’s Global Electricity Review showed that record solar growth meant clean power sources grew fast enough to meet all new electricity demand in 2025, thereby preventing an increase in fossil generation, which saw a small fall of 0.2%. This was the first year since 2020 without an increase in electricity generation from fossil fuels and only the fifth year without a rise this century.

This analysis further shows:

Fossil fuel power generation was below its peak in all 38 OECD member countries in 2025

Wind and solar have substantially reduced power sector emissions as OECD fossil generation has fallen since 2007

OECD fossil fuel generation has declined by 19% since its 2007 peak

Fossil power generation within the OECD peaked in 2007, when it accounted for 63% of the total electricity output. Since then, it has fallen 19%, equivalent to a reduction of 1,313 TWh, from 6,753 TWh in 2007 to 5,440 TWh in 2025.

OECD coal power has been halved since 2007 (-53%), dropping from 3,853 TWh to 1,808 TWh in 2025. This decline was accompanied by a 63% drop in electricity from other fossil fuels (primarily oil), which reached 213 TWh.

Gas generation followed a different trajectory, growing by 46% during the same period, rising from 2,334 TWh to 3,419 TWh. Notably, 84% of this growth was concentrated in the United States, driven by a structural shift from coal to gas.

The rise in solar and wind generation (+2,138 TWh) was enough to fully replace the decline in fossil generation (+1,313 TWh), meet rising electricity demand (+630 TWh) and offset the net fall in nuclear, hydro and bioenergy (-194 TWh).

The decline in fossil generation has led to a 28% reduction in OECD power sector emissions since 2007. This represented a decrease of 1,477 MtCO2e, bringing total sectoral emissions down to 3,818 MtCO2e in 2025. The fall in emissions is larger than the fall in fossil generation, largely due to coal’s dramatic fall.

In 2025, OECD member countries accounted for 36% of global electricity generation. Fossil fuels represented 48% of the group’s total generation mix, nearly ten percentage points lower than the global average of 57%.

The structural decline of fossil fuels in the OECD

Fossil fuel power is in structural decline across all 38 OECD member countries, with solar and wind generation increasingly forming the base of the power system. The scale and pace of this shift varies significantly across member states – from those that have already eliminated fossil fuels entirely, to others who still generate more than half of their electricity from fossil fuels.

Every OECD country in 2025 was below its fossil generation peak for the first time. 36 out of the 38 OECD countries saw fossil generation peak in 2019 or before. Türkiye peaked in 2021 and Colombia peaked in 2024. For Colombia, it is unclear if this shift is structural; monitoring over the following years will be essential to confirm a permanent peak.

Iceland and Costa Rica have already achieved fossil-free power systems, building on their vast local hydro resources and, more recently, geothermal energy. Sweden, Switzerland, and Finland are on the verge of full decarbonization, with fossil fuels accounting for less than 5% of their electricity mixes.

Finland and Denmark are among the countries with the largest decline in fossil power. Finland has reduced its fossil generation by 91% (-39 TWh) since its 2003 peak, while its wind generation has surged from near zero to a 28% share of the mix by 2025. Similarly, Denmark’s fossil generation has fallen by 94% (-48 TWh) after peaking in 1996, down to just 9% of electricity by 2025, meanwhile, wind and solar reached a combined 71% (24 TWh).

Even in slower moving countries, fossil power is below peaks. Countries such as Poland (since 2006) and the United States (since 2007) saw a significant rise in gas generation that occurred alongside a steady reduction in coal power. However, the decline in coal use far outpaced the growth in gas generation. The United States cut its coal power by 63% (-1,279 TWh) while doubling its gas generation (+911 TWh). In Poland, gas power increased by 20 TWh, while coal power fell by 60 TWh from its peak in 2006.

A third of OECD countries are already coal-free. Estonia, Costa Rica, and Lithuania never used coal in their power systems. Finland became the most recent member state to phase-out coal for electricity generation after shutting down its last coal-powered facility in April 2025. Additionally, Spain, France, and Ireland are nearing a total phase-out, with coal-fired power accounting for less than 1% of their total electricity generation in 2025.

The fact that fossil fuel generation across all OECD countries is now below peak levels represents a major milestone; however, there is still a long road ahead to fully eliminate fossil fuels from electricity generation. As of 2025, eleven countries continued to rely on fossil fuels for more than half of their electricity: Israel (83%), Mexico (74%), Poland (68%), Japan (67%), Australia (61%), South Korea (60%), the United States (57%), Türkiye (57%), Ireland (52%), Italy (51%), and Greece (50%).

Fossil fuel demand for power generation is on a trajectory for continued decline

With 80% of the OECD already committed to or having completed coal phase-outs, fossil-fuel power is expected to continue declining. Even in countries without formal coal phase-out dates, dependency is falling as renewable capacity expands rapidly.

Australia, for example, is targeting 82% renewable generation by 2030 to displace a coal share that currently stands at 43%. South Australia exemplifies this potential: it phased out coal in 2016 and now sources 74% of its electricity from wind and solar.

In the United States, subnational policies are further accelerating the decarbonisation of the power sector. California is mandated to reach 60% renewable energy by 2030 and 100% by 2045, while states like Connecticut and Minnesota have pledged 100% carbon-free electricity by 2040.
A similar direction is visible elsewhere. Türkiye aims to reach a 54.7% renewable share by 2035, building on the 43% reached in 2025, while South Korea’s 11th Basic Plan for Long-Term Electricity Supply and Demand projects renewable shares rising from 9.6% in 2023 to 18.8% by 2030 and 29.2% by 2038.

Poland — still the most coal-reliant OECD nation, with coal at 50% share of its 2025 mix (87 TWh) — is also accelerating its transition, from a 32% renewable share by 2025 toward at least 50% by 2030 and 59% by 2040. Meanwhile, Colombia joined the Powering Past Coal Alliance in 2023, pledging to halt new coal construction and phase out unabated coal use.

Renewables are becoming increasingly more cost-competitive than fossil fuels in the electricity sector

The price competitiveness of solar and wind energy is now the primary driver of power sector decarbonisation. In 2025, the average Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for solar ($39/MWh) and onshore wind ($40/MWh) was 60% lower than that of combined cycle gas turbines (CCGT), which stood at $102/MWh. Offshore wind ($100/MWh) has also reached price parity, becoming fully competitive with CCGT.

Falling battery costs are reinforcing this shift. Hybrid solar-plus-storage projects now reach an LCOE of $57/MWh — nearly half that of gas.
At these cost levels, the phase-out of fossil fuels is no longer driven by climate goals alone. It is now an economic imperative, reducing exposure to global energy market volatility and strengthening energy security, especially for countries that are fossil fuel importers.

The structural decline of fossil fuels across OECD nations provides concrete evidence that a rapid transition to a clean power mix is entirely achievable. While this shift was historically led by mature economies when clean technology required high initial investment, the plummeting costs of solar, wind and storage are now stimulating rapid, extraordinary changes across the world.

The OECD’s trajectory serves as a critical blueprint, proving that as fossil power enters a permanent retreat, other nations can leverage today’s affordable technologies to accelerate their own transitions and establish secure, resilient energy infrastructure.

Beyond the OECD – a new development pathway for emerging economies

At the global level, 2025 marked a historic turning point. For the first time in over a century, renewables (33.8%, 10,730 TWh) overtook coal (33.0%, 10,476 TWh) in the power mix, fueled by the relentless expansion of solar and wind. Global coal generation dropped by 63 TWh (-0.6%), its first decline since the 2020 COVID pandemic year. Remarkably, solar and wind alone met nearly the entirety (99%) of global electricity demand growth throughout the year.

In China and India — the world’s largest and third-largest fossil power producers — fossil fuel generation fell simultaneously in 2025. Despite still being heavily dependent on fossil fuels for 58% and 73% of their electricity respectively, this historic shift led to a combined reduction of 79 MtCO2e in power sector emissions compared to 2024.

In China, fossil generation dropped by 0.9% (-56 TWh) in 2025 as solar output surged by 40% (+336 TWh), meeting two-thirds of the country’s new electricity demand. This reduction in China could signal the beginning of a global decline in fossil power.

Similarly, India saw a 3.3% (-52 TWh) decrease in fossil power following a record 24% (+98 TWh) increase in renewable generation. Unlike China, which faced higher costs and immature technology at the start of its transition, India is now diverging from a coal-heavy path by utilizing cost-competitive clean energy. Notably, both nations are skipping the traditional coal-to-gas pathway and moving directly from coal to renewables.

Latin America and the Caribbean has also seen a steady decline in fossil fuel electricity generation. Since peaking in 2015 fossil generation decreased by 16% (-121 TWh) by 2025, while solar and wind generation surged by 299 TWh — more than enough to cover the 235 TWh growth in the region’s total electricity demand.

The decline in fossil fuel generation is no longer a trend confined to mature economies. Emerging markets are now driving a structural shift by scaling solar and wind to meet rising demand, effectively displacing fossil fuels with cheaper, cleaner alternatives. This transition, fueled by the plummeting costs of renewables and battery storage, unlocks new economic opportunities through electrification, enabling these nations to build modern, efficient energy systems that are decoupled from carbon-intensive growth.

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Ember is an independent energy think tank that aims to accelerate the clean energy transition with data and policy. Its vision is a clean, electrified energy system for all. It gathers, curates and analyses data on the global energy system, publishing this openly and accessibly. It uses data-driven insights to shift the conversation towards high impact policies and empower other advocates to do the same. Founded in 2008 as Sandbag, it formerly focused on analysing and reforming the EU carbon market, before rebranding as Ember in 2020. Its diverse team brings together energy analysts, data scientists, communicators and team-builders based around the world in over 20 countries, including Australia, Brazil, Colombia, Germany, India, Indonesia, Poland, South Africa, Türkiye, the UK and US.

Acknowledgements

Contributors

Chelsea Bruce-Lockhart, Dave Jones, Hannah Broadbent, Nicolas Fulghum, Rashmi Mishra, Raul Miranda, Richard Black and Rocío Rodríguez Almaraz.

Cover image

Sunrise on solar panel field aerial view in Mexico.

Credit: Raúl Terán Aquino / Getty Images