The Electrotech Revolution

Foreword

The Age of Electrotech

Humanity is graduating from burning fossil commodities to mastering manufactured technologies—from hunting scarce fossils to farming the inexhaustible sun, from consuming Earth’s resources to merely borrowing them. 

This isn’t a marginal climate substitution. It’s an energy revolution. 

The magnetic centre is the electron: we are revolutionising how we generate, use, and shift electrons. Solar and wind are conquering electricity supply. EVs, heat pumps, and AI are electrifying major new uses. Batteries and digitalisation are connecting supply and demand. 

Three reinforcing shifts. One energy revolution. The electrotech revolution. 

Electrotech has grown exponentially for decades. The difference today is that it’s too cheap to contain and too big to ignore. If current exponentials hold for five more years, global fossil demand falls off its plateau. Welcome to the Age of Electrotech.

Executive summary

A technology revolution in energy

The electrotech revolution is the most profound transformation of the energy system since the shift from biomass to fossil fuels in the 18th century. As electrotech costs fall and exponential growth continues, a century of evolution is converging into a decade of revolution.

Three groups of technologies are coming together to form electrotech – a revolution in the way the world generates, uses and shifts electrons – renewable supply from solar and wind; electricity demand from electric vehicles (EVs) and heat pumps; and connections from batteries and digitalisation.

Electricity is now the engine of change, powered by rapidly scaling renewables and driving economy-wide efficiency gains through electrification. It offers a path to energy security for much of the world. As a result, fossil fuel demand is peaking sector by sector, country by country. The ceiling of what is possible – cheap, abundant, universal electricity – is far higher than we once imagined.

Three fundamental drivers of change

The arc of energy history bends towards solutions that are leaner, cheaper and more secure.

Sector by sector, country by country, the electrotech era is taking shape

A new perspective – and an opportunity to seize

The concept of the electrotech revolution offers a new perspective on the energy debate. It better captures the reality of an energy system undergoing rapid technology disruption than the current two main perspectives on the future of energy, coming from the fossil gradualists and the net zero advocates. 

At its core, this revolution is driven by physics, economics, and geopolitics. Short-term setbacks matter, but fundamentals matter more. And the fundamentals are stacked in electrotech’s favour.

Supporting materials

Downloads

Download the complete slidedeck PDF.

Methodology

Data on electricity generation are sourced from Ember’s Electricity Data Explorer. Solar export figures are taken from Ember’s China’s Solar Export Explorer. Data on final energy and electrification are drawn from the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Balances. Electrification is measured as the rising share of electricity in final energy. Data on electric vehicles are taken from the IEA Global EV Data Explorer. 

Two historical datasets are used in the slidedeck: IIASA’s Primary, Final and Useful Energy Database created by Simon De Stercke and Pinto et al.’s “The rise and stall of world electricity efficiency” (Energy, 2023). For future scenarios, the deck uses IEA’s World Energy Outlook and Rystad Energy.

Costs are projected using a learning rate curve approach, where they decline by a fixed percentage with each doubling of cumulative installed capacity. For detailed work on this subject, see, for example, Rupert Way et al, 2022. In the deck, future capacity is assumed to grow at constant annual rates, driving successive cost reductions over time. Starting costs for solar, wind and batteries are anchored in 2024, with scenarios varying by assumed growth and learning rates. The range of learning and growth rates used are added in the relevant slide notes. 

For the time-shifted solar and wind deployment chart, country solar and wind deployment data were converted to relative years (t = 0 at first non-zero observation) and each series was time-shifted to minimise error against a global logistic curve. 

Road oil demand is modelled from 2024 sales and stock baselines (IEA EV Explorer). EV adoption is projected using logistic curves, fitted to historical shares by minimising squared errors, with a saturation level representing full market share. Sales grow at a modest constant rate, while stocks evolve with a simple scrappage formula. Oil use per vehicle starts from base intensities and trends with assumed efficiency improvements. Two/three-wheelers and buses are excluded.

Acknowledgements

Contributors 

Data visualisation: Chelsea Bruce-Lockhart, Reynaldo Dizon

Data: Sam Hawkins, Euan Graham, Nicolas Fulghum

Strategy: Phil MacDonald, Dave Jones, Kostantsa Rangelova, Richard Black

Communications: Hannah Broadbent, Ardhi Arsala Rahmani, Rashmi Mishra, Rini Sucahyo

Asia team: Aditya Lolla, Muyi Yang, Dinita Setyawati, Ruchita Shah

With thanks to Arthur Downing, Assaad Razzouk, Bill McKibben, Bryony Worthington, Bruce Douglas, Harry Benham, Hannah Ritchie, Jules Kortenhorst, Leonardo Buizza, Mark Campanale, Maria Pastukhova, Paul Dickinson, Mike Hemsley, Nigel Topping and Tom Steyer.

Thanks to the We Mean Business Coalition for including this in their analysis, Power Up: How Clean Energy Is Putting Fossil Fuel Demand in Doubt, in collaboration with the Energy Transitions Commission and E3G.

Cover image

The cover image of solar in Chile is from Getty images, credit: abriendomundo.

The slidedeck includes an image from Getty, credit: NanoStockk